Rivian’s supply issues: Is this what Lucid faces, too?

Dortreo

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Really good article on Reuters about Rivian actually showcasing their supply issues. I wonder if Lucid is facing the same issues and if so, is experiencing production in stops and starts like Rivian is.

Scaringe thinks suppliers are holding back, wondering if Rivian is using semiconductor shortages as an excuse to cover up more serious production problems… Now a top priority for Scaringe and other Rivian executives is convincing supplier executives that the Normal plant and its workforce are ready to accelerate…. Low volume manufacturers are up against skepticism - "are you guys for real?" - while larger players are willing and able to pay for a year's worth of chips in one transaction.

Bursts of production at the factory stop when parts run out, executives said…. "I'd love to run a full five-day shift," Scaringe said. Rivian vehicles have about 2,000 parts, he said. "One half of one percent of those are challenged."


With $18B in the bank, one would think Rivian wouldn’t have trouble buying the parts it needs, but the article makes it sound more like suppliers aren’t willing rather than aren’t able to sell to Rivian. Nevertheless, you have to wonder if Lucid is in the same boat. They’ve said chips aren’t the issue but a small number of commodities are, and we’ve seen how those can delay option availability. I wouldn’t be surprised if Lucid takes a cue from Rivian and gives additional media tours of Casa Grande if they continue to experience production hell.
 
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And it looks like it may get worse in the near future for anyone getting parts made in China. Their current complete shutdown of cities over Covid has stopped production in many areas.
 
Established large-volume customers will nearly always command supplier delivery precedence over a startup, no matter how dire the startup's situation. Sometimes you have to get on a plane, fly 12000 miles and beg.
 
Given demand, I’m surprised Rivian can’t commit to a years worth of semiconductors.
 
I'd bet they did, but may not be receiving them.
 
If their experience is like what we’re going through at the shop, I can understand why things are moving in fits and starts. Most of the parts needed are available through normal distribution, or there are direct alternates that can be spec’d in. The problem happens when there is one part on a circuit board that is sole source. It’s usually a microcontroller or power management device or some other programmable component where the whole board is useless without it. The normal channels are quoting 52-120 week lead times, I think as f*** you dates to reduce the demand. We put in orders anyway to reserve a spot in the queue. Sometimes parts come in VERY early, occasionally months ahead of the quoted date, which causes a different kind of scrambling. Sometimes they’re pushed out for multiple due dates. So we’ve had to get very creative finding folks who can source legitimate parts inside China, often at a 10-20x premium over the normal distribution prices, just to try to get a semblance of planning and keep the factory running.

The tl;dr, if a company is dealing with millions of units annually, odds are they get to talk to manufacturers directly and can mostly smooth deliveries out. Until that point though, in this climate, for the little guys, it’s a crap shoot.
 
RIVN stock now down to $20 in advance of earnings release. That’s an $18B valuation.

As of last earnings they held $20/share in cash. Sure they will have burned some but it seems the market is basically valuing Rivian as worthless other than the assets it currently holds.
 
Given demand, I’m surprised Rivian can’t commit to a years worth of semiconductors.
There is a lot of buzz. But not really that much demand for Rivian when you look at the numbers.

Last I heard Rivian had 70K reservation holders. Let’s assume that all of them accept their vehicles. (I have a reservation but don’t plan on taking delivery.)

That still the volume of Porsche alone in a year. That’s 3.5% compared to the amount that Toyota alone sells.

So if your a supplier and have Rivian (or Lucid) and Toyota knocking at your door for supplies. Who would you sell to?

 
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