How did Tesla do it?

[Goodbye]

I was thinking yesterday about some timelines pertaining to EVs, and I got to thinking about various new EV makers, and how some have failed and some are struggling mightily.

But what really struck me was thinking about Lucid's progress on the Gravity. My first thought was that they had simply set goals that were too aggressive. But then I started thinking about Lucid's timelime and Tesla's, since both started with a luxury sedan, and followed that with an SUV (not including the Roadster since Tesla didn't actually manufacture it).

Tesla started producing the Model S in the 2nd half of 2012. The Model X, which Tesla took a lot of heat for being late, entered production in the 2nd half of 2015 - three years. Lucid started production of the Air in October '21. We're well passed the 3 year point and it's still not in production.

Some things that stand out to me are:

- Lucid has strong financial backing from the Saudis. Tesla really had no such backing. I haven't done an in debth analysis, but I'm willing to bet that Lucid has had far more capital than Tesla through the process of designing/producing the Gravity than Tesla had with the X.

- The Model X is a far more complex vehicle than the Gravity is. With the FWD doors, and the self presenting doors, the X was an engineering and production nightmare. The Gravity really has no such complexities.

Tesla was essentially paving a brand new path in the production of EVs. Finding experienced engineers and such was not an option for Tesla. It was all new ground. Even designing the factory was brand new. Lucid did not have this problem as there was far more knowledge and experience available to them than Tesla.

With all that said, what in the world was/is Lucid's problem? Was it indeed Rawlinson? Is it a lack of quality labor around their factory? Culture? It's just mind boggling how Tesla did it, then Rivian did it, but Lucid seems to be stuck in the worst "production hell" of all of them. And the irony is that Rawlinson made fun of Musk about that.

Feel however you want about Musk, but what he did at Tesla with so little funds may be one of the greatest achievements in the last 100 years.

 

[Goodbye]

One more thought I forgot to add. Lucid may have put the Gravity on the back burner long ago, realizing that $100k+ SUVs aren't exactly selling like hot cakes. I'm hopeful that their real efforts are geared towards the mid level cars expected to enter production next year. If that is the case, then it's understandable why the Gravity is dribbling out slowly. I sure hope this is the case and we see the cheaper vehicles next year. In all honesty, it would be a far better approach since Lucid will still lose a ton of money on every Gravity it sells.

 

[sheldon]

I think management quality and alignment are quite important. Auto is an incredible complex and capital intensive industry and you need to really execute especially when you are a new company. Frankly, the company hasn't had very good leadership that can execute.

Personally, I think Gravity has chosen a smart niche. The three-row luxury SUV segment offers the highest margins and the least competition. As a newcomer, entering the mass market—where profitability depends on massive economies of scale—would be far riskier.
The high-end segment allows more room for error, as customers tend to be less price-sensitive and more forgiving. This is evident in the Chinese EV market: the surviving startups (like Li Auto with its L9) all started in premium niches. The key is to dominate a specific segment first before expanding downward. If they can't make money on premium there is no way they can make money on mid range.