Q2 2022

[hydbob]

How about we do a few things here:

1) keep it civil
2) leave any sort of politics out of a discussion about the earnings call
3) try and stay on topic and not digress into the very controversial topic of COVID besides how it has disrupted global supply chains

 

[stratus]

How about we do a few things here:

1) keep it civil
2) leave any sort of politics out of a discussion about the earnings call
3) try and stay on topic and not digress into the very controversial topic of COVID besides how it has disrupted global supply chains

I will reset and follow that excellent advice.

 

[joec]

There you have it. Touring is last on the list.

• Pure
• Grand Touring
• Touring

That's how they're getting to the Pures by year end

For those of us who weren’t able to listen to the call live, can someone elaborate on this? What exactly was said?

 

[HC_79]

For those of us who weren’t able to listen to the call live, can someone elaborate on this? What exactly was said?

Basically that the Touring is the last on the popularity list. They were talking breakdown of models to reservation numbers and said the Pure is the most popular followed by the Grand Touring then the Touring. So it seems the Touring production run is going to be relatively quick to then transition to the Pure.

 

[joec]

Basically that the Touring is the last on the popularity list. They were talking breakdown of models to reservation numbers and said the Pure is the most popular followed by the Grand Touring then the Touring. So it seems the Touring production run is going to be relatively quick to then transition to the Pure.

Ahh. Okay. I was thinking they may have explicitly stated they will start Pure production before Touring. Which would make some sense, but would suck for me personally. Thanks.

 

[HC_79]

Ahh. Okay. I was thinking they may have explicitly stated they will start Pure production before Touring. Which would make some sense, but would suck for me personally. Thanks.

No, it just explained how they’re getting the Pures done this year.

 

[DJL]

We know that the Q2 was going to be bad but I did not think it was going to be this bad. Sound like the AMP-1 is in a management and operational mess. To have the CEO camp out there is not a good look. The mess at AMP-1 having such an impact of cutting production numbers in half, down to 6-7K underscores how serious a problem they are facing. Such a significant reduction indicates that this is not going to be an easy fix. I understand now why Lucid is so silent regarding communications on the issues this forum has raised. They are not in a position to provide any answers with any crediability. I am now hoping that the June to September timeline I was given regarding delivery yields a "before the end of 2022" delivery. Not so confident right now. With that said, I still know that the car is an engineering marvel and I an still anxious to receive it. However, I will no longer lose any more sleep waiting to the call that it it ready to be delivered..

 

[MoniputerLM]

$97.3M revenue
679 deliveries
Now lowering to 6000-7000 vehicles for 2022
$4.6B cash, cash equivalents and investments to take them well into 2023

Wow, very low delivery number.

 

[MPawelek]

Looks like they have 3/4 of that amount in the parking lot now.

 

[Rob Stark]

Musk loves subsidies. He's not opening up the Supercharger network because he thinks its good for everyone he's opening it purely so he can get some cash from the Infrastructure Bill.

Elon Musk hates government subsidies. His companies love them.

Last December, Elon Musk beamed in from his new Tesla plant near Austin, Texas — a behemoth the size of 75 football fields with a crisp white factory floor — to a Washington, D.C., conference hosted by the Wall Street Journal. Musk, appearing onstage on a jumbotron-sized screen, was quickly...

www.grid.news

Why then is Musk opening the Supercharger Network globally?

Lucid, Rivian, General Motors, Ford, Stellantis, Toyota, BMW, Mercedes, Toyota, Hyundai, Nissan et all hate subsidies and refuse to take them.

 

[Rob Stark]

Agreed. Musk is not dumb. He has negotiated several subsidies and tax breaks. However, none larger than relocating out of CA to avoid massive state income tax. By defacto, that move alone made TSLA 10-12% more profitable on the bottom line. Once he realized TSLA was becoming profitable, he repositioned the HQ nexus to tax free States. The number of people still employed in Fremont CA I’d irrelevant.

California's corporate income tax rate is 8.84%. Moving to Texas did increase profits 10-12%.

And Tesla was profitable for years before moving designated headquarters from Palo Alto to Austin.

The number of people employed at Palo Alto CA, Lathrop CA and Fremont CA are very relevant.

 

[borski]

Twitter retrace was always calculated. Musk knew he was going to expose their fraud and propose a much lower valuation from the onset. Have an idea will ya?
Twitter didn’t accept the value haircut that Musk proposed and now they are left holding their d*** in their hands.

have a good night getting your facts from Buzzfeed

I was saying he talked about Tesla being bankrupt on Twitter, not about the Twitter boondoggle that has surely left Musk owing at least a billion dollars, and likely quite a bit more, especially if you count the share losses once he is required to go through with the purchase.

We’re done here. Have a nice night.

 

[DeaneG]

PR quite honestly sounds like the nutty professor. I’m not sure I’d let him do another conference call. This may be the case that the founder should transition to Executive Chairman and bring in a operational CEO.

PR should be CTO, not CEO. Nothing wrong with that - they are different strengths and the most urgent needs of the company are changing.

 

[Tesla2.0]

This is my own assumption extrapolation based on past manufacturing performance…

Currently Ramping Velocity
125 Q4 2021
360 Q1 2022 (2.88x)
679 Q2 2022 (1.88x)
——————-
1164 TOTAL Delivery

Pessimistic Projection Ramping Velocity
125 Q4 2021
360 Q1 2022 (2.88x)
679 Q2 2022 (1.88x)
828 Q3 2022 (1.22x)
1556 Q4 2022 (1.88x introduce 2nd shift)
——————-
3548 TOTAL Delivery

Realistic Projection Ramping Velocity
125 Q4 2021
360 Q1 2022 (2.88x)
679 Q2 2022 (1.88x)
1276 Q3 2022 (1.88x introduce 2nd shift early)
2973 Q4 2022 (2.33x 2nd shift fully operational)
——————-
5413 TOTAL Delivery

Optimistic Projection Ramping Velocity
125 Q4 2021
360 Q1 2022 (2.88x)
679 Q2 2022 (1.88x)
1276 Q3 2022 (1.88x introduce 2nd shift early)
3674 Q4 2033 (2.88x supply chain easing)
——————-
6114 TOTAL Delivery

It will keep increasing. But it seems 2022 is not the year, they are still gaining manufacturing experience into their debut year. I say give this baby a break, their kitchen is not McDonald yet, just Red Lobster. And their Post Delivery Service is Ritz Carlton where the other giant is merely Holidays Inn. The reputation will takes time spread out.

 

[stratus]

This is my own assumption extrapolation based on past manufacturing performance…

Currently Ramping Velocity
125 Q4 2021
360 Q1 2022 (2.88x)
679 Q2 2022 (1.88x)
——————-
1164 TOTAL Delivery

Pessimistic Projection Ramping Velocity
125 Q4 2021
360 Q1 2022 (2.88x)
679 Q2 2022 (1.88x)
828 Q3 2022 (1.22x)
1556 Q4 2022 (1.88x introduce 2nd shift)
——————-
3548 TOTAL Delivery

Realistic Projection Ramping Velocity
125 Q4 2021
360 Q1 2022 (2.88x)
679 Q2 2022 (1.88x)
1276 Q3 2022 (1.88x introduce 2nd shift early)
2973 Q4 2022 (2.33x 2nd shift fully operational)
——————-
5413 TOTAL Delivery

Optimistic Projection Ramping Velocity
125 Q4 2021
360 Q1 2022 (2.88x)
679 Q2 2022 (1.88x)
1276 Q3 2022 (1.88x introduce 2nd shift early)
3674 Q4 2033 (2.88x supply chain easing)
——————-
6114 TOTAL Delivery

It will keep increasing. But it seems 2022 is not the year, they are still gaining manufacturing experience into their debut year. I say give this baby a break, their kitchen is not McDonald yet, just Red Lobster. And their Post Delivery Service is Ritz Carlton where the other giant is merely Holidays Inn. The reputation will takes time spread out.

I like the optimism.

 

[digiboxer]

Don't forget that May was a complete washout due to the shutdown from the rear panel issues

So what caused that? “Covid”?

 

[digiboxer]

679 deliveries, just wow.

I chalk this one up to "What the heck did you expect him to say? We're going to deliver as few cars as possible, shut down the factory multiple times, and make sure all our customers experience major service issues. IN short, this whole year, we're going to basically suck."

I dunno…I felt he was totally scripted (with an assist from the British accent—face it, we all fall for it). And when he went off script he dithered..JMO, but all his platitudes about “believing” are getting stale. NB the stock was up….UP? What do I know?

 

[digiboxer]

There is no playbook when determining how a pandemic will affect any company.

COVID had a resurgence in these last few months, causing new lockdowns, new uncertainty. I could go on, but there really is no point and everything is just a conspiracy and vague "mismanagement" apparently anyway.

Bummer of an update but not unexpected.

Covid?? Please….

 

[OldAg]

I listened to the earnings call until Rawlinson answered question about Car Play being in beta testing. I did not hear a great deal of pandemic blaming but maybe wasn’t focused on that. I did hear PR admit that they had failed in logistics planning and production execution. Yes, he repeatedly said quality overruled quantity so production was abysmal.
Like any CEO after admitting issues he addressed steps that were being taken to fix the issues. New people hired with years of expertise in those areas, shifting people to Arizona to be personally involved with day to day problems, shifting more logistics in house and setting up increased parts storage at the production plant.
Of course I can wonder why this wasn’t done previously or planned for but every business makes mistakes and wrong decisions. At least the one I spent 35 years working in production did and we were regarded as one of the “best” run companies in America and we did lots of dumb stuff. We have been around for over 100 years.
I still want a Quality luxury vehicle that is fast and fun to drive, so far I still believe the GT meets that requirement. Now if they can just figure out the silver paint issue.

 

[digiboxer]

Okay. And I have a bridge to sell you in Alaska.

What’s your point. That this is a great report on the status of LCID? Production estimates halved twice? Huge cash burn in the last Q?