Q1 Production 2314 cars

[HariK]

I hope that they ramp up the production of the high volume Pure RWD without SSp or DDp which a lot of people are impatiently waiting for.

 

[blueice89]

Is it general consensus this was disappointing print? I mean if they lay off 18% of the workforce at least common sense says productivity is not hitting the same levels as when they had that 18% workforce. Seems like an over reaction this how they save costs and preserve their runway.

 

[kerplunk]

Is it general consensus this was disappointing print? I mean if they lay off 18% of the workforce at least common sense says productivity is not hitting the same levels as when they had that 18% workforce. Seems like an over reaction this how they save costs and preserve their runway.

I take it as the work force reduction just happened recently and the production numbers is for the whole reporting period. So, its not like the reduction played a big role. The ongoing concern is they made 2,314 cars and delivered just 1,406. The optimistic side is they are having trouble getting the cars into customer hands. The concerning side is they made a lot of cars and there are not enough buyers. I think it is the later because the CEO is saying they need to get the brand out there better. I would personally feel better if lucid was only able to make 1,406 but sold all cars.

Product is legit amazing, but money is expensive now and barely used GT's can be had for nearly the price of the Touring. So maybe the used market may be cannibalizing Touring sales as well.

Hopefully this changes when Lucid starts delivering the Pure trim, but I know the margins are less.

 

[chinesejpl]

I don't see how this can be sugar coated. It is just downright bad but not unexpected given what happened to model x/s deliveries in the same quarter. The market for luxury electric cars is shrinking fast (eg there are tons of eqs and taycans for sale both new and used and inventory seems to build each week. My local Mb dealers have a growing # of new eqs cars+suvs that they are desperately trying to move)

I enjoy my car but am not an investor as I see them as separate. They won't go bankrupt or run out of money given that PIF owns >60% and the tech is really good.

 

[LCIDdreams]

I think the Gravity can’t come soon enough. I’m not an SUV person, but like it or not the demand for sedans has only been going in one direction in the last 10 years. The market for $80k sedans is only so big and is getting smaller every year.

It’s still a head scratcher to me that Lucid claimed on the last earnings call that demand is their limiter now (not production). They must still have a huge waitlist. I don’t think they are issuing backlog numbers anymore, but it was 28k 3 months ago. Even if that has plummeted to 20k that’s 2.5 years of production at current rate. That’s not counting the 50k guaranteed Saudi orders. Presumably almost all of those are Pure orders at this point - hopefully they open the floodgates and start getting Pures out in big #’s. Maybe I’ll get mine before 2025!

 

[Paco]

If they can produce the gravity in mass production, and sell it for less than <60k. That may save them, Tesla keeps lowering the Model Y, because the group of folks that can afford/willing to purchase a premium vehicle is getting smaller each day.

 

[MorganB]

If they can produce the gravity in mass production, and sell it for less than <60k. That may save them, Tesla keeps lowering the Model Y, because the group of folks that can afford/willing to purchase a premium vehicle is getting smaller each day.

Thats not going to happen and it's not intended to compete with the model Y. I suppose a closer model would be the X. They will get to the 60k market but not until their 3rd vehicle so probably 2027 /28.

 

[Paco]

Well, Model X and S aren’t selling well, that’s why they keep lowering the price.

Deliveries of the higher-margin S and X came in at 10,695 for Q1 2023. In Q1 22, Tesla delivered 14,724 of the same. That’s negative year-over-year growth: -27%. In Q4 2022, Tesla delivered 17,147 S and X. That gives us -37% growth from the prior quarter.

Think about it, before all the electric craziness, how many people bought BMW or Mercedes, not many. You saw many Toyotas and Hondas. That’s what most people can afford.

 

[MorganB]

Well, Model X and S aren’t selling well, that’s why they keep lowering the price.

Deliveries of the higher-margin S and X came in at 10,695 for Q1 2023. In Q1 22, Tesla delivered 14,724 of the same. That’s negative year-over-year growth: -27%. In Q4 2022, Tesla delivered 17,147 S and X. That gives us -37% growth from the prior quarter.

Think about it, before all the electric craziness, how many people bought BMW or Mercedes, not many. You saw many Toyotas and Hondas. That’s what most people can afford.

Totally agree. However keep in mind that Tesla essentially uses a dynamic pricing model like airlines which does impact year over year. Luxury sales are down in general and will continue to trend downward as pandemic free money dries up and the economy shifts. To your point the higher price point vehicles will have lower sales for any manufacturer. The logic behind starting upmarket is that you create a halo car with all of your best tech and you can then slowly roll that tech downward into lower priced models a few years later as you have gained production efficiencies and unit cost of said tech has dropped. At the same time you introduce new tech in the upmarket models.

Model S base price:

2017 70k
2018 79k
2019 76k
2020 71k
2021 97k
2022 107k
Current : 85k

 

[Paco]

All I’m trying to say is that selling 10k to 14k vehicles in 2023 not going to help lucid profits.

 

[joec]

All I’m trying to say is that selling 10k to 14k vehicles in 2023 not going to help lucid profits.

And all the rest of us are saying is selling Gravity at $60k, which would lose Lucid tens of thousands of dollars per sale, will also not help profits.

The key to profit is selling things for more money than they cost to make.

 

[chachacha]

I wonder if lucid will drop prices in order to attract more buyers.
I think that's all they can really do in the short term

 

[hydbob]

 

[MorganB]

View attachment 11482

Thank you for posting. Very informative. Do you have a link ?

 

[hydbob]

Thank you for posting. Very informative. Do you have a link ?

Stock Market Insights | Seeking Alpha

seekingalpha.com

 

[digiboxer]

I think the Gravity can’t come soon enough. I’m not an SUV person, but like it or not the demand for sedans has only been going in one direction in the last 10 years. The market for $80k sedans is only so big and is getting smaller every year.

It’s still a head scratcher to me that Lucid claimed on the last earnings call that demand is their limiter now (not production). They must still have a huge waitlist. I don’t think they are issuing backlog numbers anymore, but it was 28k 3 months ago. Even if that has plummeted to 20k that’s 2.5 years of production at current rate. That’s not counting the 50k guaranteed Saudi orders. Presumably almost all of those are Pure orders at this point - hopefully they open the floodgates and start getting Pures out in big #’s. Maybe I’ll get mine before 2025!

I don't see how they could have a waitlist of 20k-something AND have cars on the lot that they can't move. (IE the waitlist can't be 100% Pures)

Of course the waitlist thing was always ephemeral: refundable $1k...I put deposits on Lucid, Rivian and Fisker with no intention of ever owning more than one of them. This might be one reason Lucid decided to stop reporting the quarterly waitlist

If there are still thousands of people who have made deposits, one would think lucid sales people are contacting every one of them.

It will be interesting to see of they extend the $7.5 rebate beyond 4/30. Not extending it would have the practical effect of a price increase.

 

[sk8ndad]

I don't see how they could have a waitlist of 20k-something AND have cars on the lot that they can't move. (IE the waitlist can't be 100% Pures)

Of course the waitlist thing was always ephemeral: refundable $1k...I put deposits on Lucid, Rivian and Fisker with no intention of ever owning more than one of them. This might be one reason Lucid decided to stop reporting the quarterly waitlist

If there are still thousands of people who have made deposits, one would think lucid sales people are contacting every one of them.

It will be interesting to see of they extend the $7.5 rebate beyond 4/30. Not extending it would have the practical effect of a price increase.

I wouldn't assume that the cars in the lot are not sold. I think the long pole in the tent is the service centers and how many cars they can process through. I know once mine hit the service center it was a while before they were ready for me to pick it up.

 

[digiboxer]

I wouldn't assume that the cars in the lot are not sold. I think the long pole in the tent is the service centers and how many cars they can process through. I know once mine hit the service center it was a while before they were ready for me to pick it up.

Could be---2 weeks ago at Goose Isl there were a dozen cars that had obviously just arrived from the factory and hadn't been detailed yet...and maybe more that I didn't see.

 

[HariK]

If they can produce the gravity in mass production, and sell it for less than <60k. That may save them, Tesla keeps lowering the Model Y, because the group of folks that can afford/willing to purchase a premium vehicle is getting smaller each day.

Gravity is not a Model Y. It is superior to Model X but that is a small market.

 

[HariK]

View attachment 11482

I look forward to the volume shipping of the base Pure.