Interesting interview with Peter. Sounds like he plans to have a midsized vehicle with a 25kwh battery and a range of 150 miles for around $50k available around 2026. Goal of producing 1 million cars a year by 2030.
Peter Rawlinson interview with Andrew Keen
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25 kWh/150 miles for $50k?? Who in their right mind would buy that?
I think he's taking into consideration 20% annual inflation so in today's money that's $28k
DBV
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2026? There will be nothing unique with that by then, as so many competitors will have something similar with a lot better range. Can’t believe he would actually say that, as nothing innovative about that statement or forward thinking. They are going to need a lot more than that to keep their company going and quicker. They can’t survive on selling Lucid Air’s, as there are only so many people that can afford them, especially as this space becomes more crowded.
The 150 miles part is the only surprise here. Lucid have said many times by mid-decade they want to have a sub $50k car. I agree, 150 miles is not adequate. They'd need to be competitive with Model 3 at that point, which gets around 300 miles. Or at least the other major auto manufacturers, who get around 250-280 generally.
Given Gravity won't be shipping until 2024, the 2026 estimated launch for this car is about right. Cars don't just materialize out of thin air. It takes years of planning, testing, prototyping, etc.
I wouldn't be surprised in the meantime if Lucid ends up licensing some tech to another major company by then as well. They don't need to make all their money from selling Lucid-branded cars.
Given Gravity won't be shipping until 2024, the 2026 estimated launch for this car is about right. Cars don't just materialize out of thin air. It takes years of planning, testing, prototyping, etc.
I wouldn't be surprised in the meantime if Lucid ends up licensing some tech to another major company by then as well. They don't need to make all their money from selling Lucid-branded cars.
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He is thinking that the key to making cheaper cars is more miles per KWh with a target of 6 miles per KWh for smaller car the size of VW Golf. 150miles is way too low when we know already that
150miles epa is basically 25% less in real life. What he did not seem to talk about is the decrease in battery prices per Kwh with time.
I think that is a big deal and it needs to happen. So here is my opinion.
Range in real life 10% to 80% needs to be 200 miles and charging time needs to be no more than that of refueling ICE car. The average cost of EV must be the same as the average cost of a similar ICE car. Only then EV will become the main stream. How is this possible? Solid state batteries which can really be charged very fast and have at least 15yr 200k mile useful life are needed. When will that happen? 15 years from now?
150miles epa is basically 25% less in real life. What he did not seem to talk about is the decrease in battery prices per Kwh with time.
I think that is a big deal and it needs to happen. So here is my opinion.
Range in real life 10% to 80% needs to be 200 miles and charging time needs to be no more than that of refueling ICE car. The average cost of EV must be the same as the average cost of a similar ICE car. Only then EV will become the main stream. How is this possible? Solid state batteries which can really be charged very fast and have at least 15yr 200k mile useful life are needed. When will that happen? 15 years from now?
gunick06
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The 150mi range was based on having a better charging infrastructure, and was not actually his proposal for a new Lucid, just some number crunching. It was a very long and detailed explanation that you will miss if you just focus on the number without the context. In theory, a 150mi car would sense for a lot of people, but it will be a long time before we get there.
He did also talk about licensing the tech as part of the plan to grow. He’s hoping to use the first few cars to get the tech started/funded, then work on scaling. The fact that Lucid does everything in-house is a huge differentiator. Look at companies like Porsche and BMW and how the opposite plan is hurting them right now. If Lucid can survive the next 2-3 years, they can achieve some great things. What they have done in such a short time already is remarkable.
He did also talk about licensing the tech as part of the plan to grow. He’s hoping to use the first few cars to get the tech started/funded, then work on scaling. The fact that Lucid does everything in-house is a huge differentiator. Look at companies like Porsche and BMW and how the opposite plan is hurting them right now. If Lucid can survive the next 2-3 years, they can achieve some great things. What they have done in such a short time already is remarkable.
Their technology will be obsolete in 2-3 years. To survive they need to be an established brand like Porsche, BMW etc. and have efficient and cost-effective factories so they can make a profit.
gunick06
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What technology and what is the basis for that? They are constantly developing their tech.
There are a lot of people developing motors and batteries. There is nothing that special about the technology that makes someone buy a Lucid if they like Mercedes or BMW or Audi. Yes, more power and range are good for high end cars, but Tesla sells a lot of Model 3 and Ys and Porsche sells Taycans.
gunick06
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Tycans have terrible range for a higher sticker price. I know plenty of people who decided against one for that reason alone. For now, this is the market Lucid is intentionally competing in, and they are doing well on a number of levels. Something like half of the cars in the US are SUVs, so they are quickly moving towards capturing what they can of that market. Tesla definitely has the edge on autonomous driving, but a large part of the market does not care about these features and it will still be years before Tesla dreams of touching level 4/5.
If you watch the video, you will hear the CEO talk about having the highest efficiency at this time, and continuing to perfect this as they go. Every car is obsolete the day it goes in service if you want to think about it that way because there's always something else in development. Tesla went through multiple models before they made Model 3 and Y, and that is the long term goal for Lucid. They aren't sitting on their hands now that their first line is moving into production. It may seem slow because we're thinking about it every day waiting for our cars to be delivered, but they have moved pretty fast, especially in the face of brutal supply chain issues.
No one is perfect, but for now they have good goals and some success. I hope it continues.
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Porsche has already made their move, Rimac. Rumor is the next gen Caymans will go electric. Id be willing to bet Porsche will be using Rimac tech.
You are missing my point. Lucid will survive and prosper not on just technology but being able to make cars and in quantity. I am not saying that they can't and hope that they do but saying they are very valuable just for their technology is a mistake, I think.
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True, technology is only worth what people are willing to pay. Lucid has a lot of tech under its belt but if they can't sell, produce or license to anyone then the technology is worth $0. What dinosaur automaker is going to license Lucid's platform? none of them, because they think they can do it better.
gunick06
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In the video, he talks about licensing being part of the plan. He also notes they are now up to 300 cars per week and has plans to be at 1M cars/year by 2030. It’s going to be tough, but it’s part of the plan, not just making cool tech.
I view it more like tech that is hidden (motor, battery, wunderbox) has lower value than what can be seen similar to a very well built house has the differentiators hidden when compared to a tract home. The legacy companies don’t think they can do better, they know they can do it cheaper and that’s what matters to them. They just have to make the tech the consumer sees competitive. Most people don’t dive deep into the tech, hence people convinced their bolt should be using the 350 charger
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“Driving down the price thru efficiency and reduce battery cost.” - Peter Rawlinson
In the video, the pillar may be true idealistically, but if you don’t drive down cost of manufacturing plant and manpower cost and raise production level thru “process efficiency” and “scale efficiency”, your “technology efficiency” is just an idea. VW at 5 times Tesla IT software department, poor software execution, It doesn’t matter they have manufacturing efficiency. It’s about overall package.
Execute! Ramp up! Kick some ass! That what CEO job is supposed to do, not just talk about “efficiency, efficiency & efficiency!” Repetitive talk will become cheap, action is louder than words.
I am pro Lucid. But I want to see more production output and better planned communication and execution. Hope 2023 Peter will execute better!
In the video, the pillar may be true idealistically, but if you don’t drive down cost of manufacturing plant and manpower cost and raise production level thru “process efficiency” and “scale efficiency”, your “technology efficiency” is just an idea. VW at 5 times Tesla IT software department, poor software execution, It doesn’t matter they have manufacturing efficiency. It’s about overall package.
Execute! Ramp up! Kick some ass! That what CEO job is supposed to do, not just talk about “efficiency, efficiency & efficiency!” Repetitive talk will become cheap, action is louder than words.
I am pro Lucid. But I want to see more production output and better planned communication and execution. Hope 2023 Peter will execute better!
I would (one could argue if I qualify the OP's condition)
= it would have to be as fun to drive as a 3-series bmw, which I am now using as my daily.
The Lucid fits my transportation plan as a GT car: long trips and limo duty for the aging parents.
I just need a small fun car for errands locally. 150 mi range with a charger in the garage suits me just fine.
A future electric / hydrogen powered world we'd look for very few GT cars and lots and lots of generic, short-hop cars available something like e-bikes in a city. I see taking a train for distance then getting in a "rental" EV for local sight-seeing. Lots of E-buses.
It was a huge mistake to tear-up the trolley tracks. We were on the right path ... capitalism killed it.
We can't continue this model where all 10 billion humans desire personal cars.
This is why I love Boulder so much. My wife and I get away with owning only one car, because for any travel around the city, my e-bike gets the job done just fine. Proper bike paths that keep you off the roads 90% of the time are worth their weight in gold. (Not to mention, it helps with my waistline.)
The only issue is the winter. Riding a bike on ice is not my idea of a good time. So it gets hard when the snow starts.
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