Lucid produced 1,728 vehicles and delivered 1,967 vehicles during this period

[HariK]

In 2 years from right now….50K is exactly what I figure a 2022 with 20K for miles will be worth- perhaps slightly less. They are currently about 70-75K with low miles.
2020 Porsche Taycan that had msrp close to 190K are now 80K. Luxury EV’s are quick on depreciation. Look at the Audi e Tron GT and Mercedes EQS depreciation curve.

Marketing dept needs a lot of work.

I am betting that as time goes by, the battery prices will fall and when people know that once the battery is replaced, the car is good as new again, the values can go up. That is my wishful thinking anyway.

 

[hmp10]

Get them into the brand today, keep them for their next five cars.

Absolutely. Lucid's biggest problems right now don't revolve around their financials. They revolve around the paucity of cars on the road. Most people are still unfamiliar with the brand, the lack of seeing cars on the road reinforces what some people have heard about Lucid's poor prospects for survival, and fewer people driving them means less word-of-mouth advertising.

I have yet to put a person in our Air (at least since UX 1.0 went to its overdue grave) who didn't come away very impressed with its ride, room, quiet, style, and zip. And recent incentives have encouraged two friends to start considering Lucid for their next and for their first EV.

 

[MJAir23TheGoat]

Battery cost will come down… car value will not go up. It is what it is. In 2 to 3 years, technology will evolve even further in the EV segment.

 

[HariK]

Battery cost will come down… car value will not go up. It is what it is. In 2 to 3 years, technology will evolve even further in the EV segment.

And I hope that we can upgrade the electronics modules like we used to do back in the days of the desktop computers.

 

[NoseyReporter]

And I hope that we can upgrade the electronics modules like we used to do back in the days of the desktop computers.

I have a sneaking suspicion this one might hurt.

 

[kpbhat]

This is great news. What is more exciting is that I have heard from 2 others in Indianapolis area about getting their air delivered very shortly. I look forward for deliveries to climb as the quarters pass by. Keeping my fingers crossed

 

[no gas]

And what happens if in 18 months the economy does not improve and users don't buy those leases and Lucid gets stuck with used 2023 models in 2025? How low will them dump them at auction? I have already lost $60k+ in the value of my GT in 1 1/2 years. Will our $138k cars be worth less than $50k in 3 years?

That’s what is called depreciation, luxury cars see more of it. Nature of the game. I bought a AMG merc for 100k, sold it for 40k 4 years later….doesnt matter what brand, they all get it.

 

[no gas]

If you are holding for a decade, buying here is not a bad option. If you are a trader, a short squeeze can happen anytime….I'm buying a few thousand every paycheck…..holding for 10 years at least! Lucid sales will only go up, with Gravity and Midsize, battery prices dropping. Don’t forget the Saudi commitment to buy 100k…they will buy all those fully built in Saudi, those will come end of 2024. Saudi aren’t stupid, they shouldn’t be just throwing money at Lucid, it will make them take PIF for granted. Patience is a virtue when investing. By 2025 you will see a big upswing.

 

[new owner]

If you are holding for a decade, buying here is not a bad option. If you are a trader, a short squeeze can happen anytime….I'm buying a few thousand every paycheck…..holding for 10 years at least! Lucid sales will only go up, with Gravity and Midsize, battery prices dropping. Don’t forget the Saudi commitment to buy 100k…they will buy all those fully built in Saudi, those will come end of 2024. Saudi aren’t stupid, they shouldn’t be just throwing money at Lucid, it will make them take PIF for granted. Patience is a virtue when investing. By 2025 you will see a big upswing.

From your lips to gods ears
I think they will get there

 

[no gas]

From your lips to gods ears
I think they will get there

I always wondered why Saudi wasn’t buying all the AZ built cars, but looks like they want Lucid to fully build from scratch in Saudi- those are the cars they will buy in bulk. That makes sense, at least from Saudi point. PIF is in this for the long haul and will provide support till they establish. I mean, they have 900 billion to play with. NEOM is being scaled down to just a few miles, that is sensible. More money to throw around at more viable products. Oil going up. More cash for the Saudi’s!

 

[jake241983]

This is great news. What is more exciting is that I have heard from 2 others in Indianapolis area about getting their air delivered very shortly. I look forward for deliveries to climb as the quarters pass by. Keeping my fingers crossed

I'm here in Indy and picked mine up last weekend. Just moved here from Illinois a few months ago.

 

[new owner]

Do you think lucid would support a charging network for road tripping?
I would think most owners charge at home
As I do for 90 % of their driving but road tripping is a big part of the allure of this grand tourer. Personally, I’ve had good fortune with EA in the MA, CT and NY area when I do road trip . Despite the fact I can afford gas it is nice to not pay for energy on longer trips at least for another 1 1/2 yrs.

 

[kpbhat]

Do you think lucid would support a charging network for road tripping?
I would think most owners charge at home
As I do for 90 % of their driving but road tripping is a big part of the allure of this grand tourer. Personally, I’ve had good fortune with EA in the MA, CT and NY area when I do road trip . Despite the fact I can afford gas it is nice to not pay for energy on longer trips at least for another 1 1/2 yrs.

Yes you can; thru EA network. Tesla is expected to open up by 2025. For charging network look at “supercharged” app which will show you all network consolidated and you can filter out based on your preference

 

[Adnillien]

Since Lucid will report earning on Monday, I thought it might be interesting to look some of their results since Q4 of 2021. Starting with production and deliveries in the chart below. Q3 and Q4 of 2022 marks a turning point, the factory really ramped up manufacturing. There were still 28,000 outstanding reservations at the end of Q4 2022. During that time Steven David said that once you turn on production, it is very hard to turn it off. The result was excess inventory as reservations were canceled. It was around this time that Lucid realized that capacity exceeded demand and things needed to scale down. We saw layoffs in early 2023 and falling production along with Lucid no longer reporting reservation in Q1 of 2023. The positive sign here is that during that last three quarters production is matching deliveries and the delivery trend is upward.

Revenue follows deliveries with noise from non-production revenue. Even with deliveries picking up in the last three quarters, revenue is flat. Likely a result of price cuts and lower cost Pure deliveries.

Depreciation is mostly as expected. As equipment gets added to the factory and used in production, depreciation will continue to increase. I think this trend will continue with a step up when Gravity begins production.

Since we know the factory is underutilized, current production volume will not support depreciation. Hence, it is interesting to look at gross profit and gross profit less depreciation. All are negative indicating negative gross profit. I am hoping the last three quarters indicate a trend in the right direction regarding gross profit. I am very curious to see if Q1 of this year continues the trend.

Since I am biased for Lucid, this is probably the best trend that I could find. It is gross profit (or loss) less depreciation per vehicle delivered. The overall trend is good and the value may become positive by the end of the year.

The most important question to me is when Lucid will become cash flow positive. The chart below shows the net cash flow from operations. I tend to ignore Q4 of 2021 since that was the beginning of production and so few cars were made. Hence, the overall curve looks flat to me. That said, the trend since the beginning of 2023 is very good. Again, this is a key metric that I will look for on Monday.