Lucid Motors Unveils Plan For Three Affordable EVs To Challenge Tesla

[hydbob]

Lucid Motors Unveils Plan For Three Affordable EVs To Challenge Tesla | EV.com

Lucid Is Set To Launch Three New Mid-Size EVs Including A Sleek SUV And A Mass-Market Sedan Categories: News Tags: Lucid 2 min read By Michael Phoon • August 21

ev.com

 

[michel]

Also https://electrek.co/2024/08/21/lucid-lcid-challenge-tesla-three-new-affordable-evs/

This is really exciting! I was reluctantly trying to interest myself with the upcoming crossover and Rivian's R3 (both too tall) but if there's a smaller sedan *and* an off roady vehicle both coming out too, it will make me happier both as a future customer and as a shareholder

 

[xponents]

Does anybody know of a timeline for the midsize sedan? Will it come out at the same time as the SUV?

 

[michel]

Does anybody know of a timeline for the midsize sedan? Will it come out at the same time as the SUV?

I'm also curious. If it's like Rivian (and they have planned this for a while) it could be as early as a year or two after the midsize SUV.

I can keep my EV6 for longer - being able to choose between a small Lucid sedan, the BMW NK i3/i4, and the Rivian R3 (not a sedan, so not a direct competitor but more compact so easier to park) would be amazing

 

[joec]

Does anybody know of a timeline for the midsize sedan? Will it come out at the same time as the SUV?

They have not as yet indicated whether all three models would be introduced at once or whether they'll do one at a time. They may preview them all by end of 2026, then ship them one at a time. That would be my guess.

If one at a time, I'd put money on Crossover, Offroad, then Sedan.

 

[FA14]

Does anybody know of a timeline for the midsize sedan? Will it come out at the same time as the SUV?

Most likely 3-4 years away …and the funding they can secure for that time frame to stay alive.

Lucid’s short term future depends on the success of the gravity which will be released end of the year and the ability to scale production. They are producing 10k Airs yearly and let’s say another 10k Gravity. With a combined production output of 20k vehicles…it’s nearly impossible to survive or to scale ahead without more cash burn.

To achieve profitability or avoid negative cash flow these are the most important metrics.

 

[DeaneG]

..They are producing 10k Airs yearly and let’s say another 10k Gravity....

I'm expecting Lucid will sell at least three times the volume of Gravity as it does the Air. Little Volvo sells about 10x as many XC90 EVs in the USA as it does S90 sedans.

 

[Spin Doctor]

“It’s not going to be as quick as Air” is one of the Jenkins quotes. I hope they do make a 'hot' version ... a Lucid midsize in Sapphire (or even GT-P) trim would be a very compelling proposition.

 

[FA14]

I'm expecting Lucid will sell at least three times the volume of Gravity as it does the Air. Little Volvo sells about 10x as many XC90 EVs in the USA as it does S90 sedans.

Main competition for Gravity is Model X which sells around 20k units every year. Do the math. And how many buyers are willing to spend 80k -120k on a minivan/crossover suv ?

 

[FA14]

I'm expecting Lucid will sell at least three times the volume of Gravity as it does the Air. Little Volvo sells about 10x as many XC90 EVs in the USA as it does S90 sedans.

To an average person - it’s more or less a minivan style luxury suv for a 7 seater so let’s be realistic here.

If it was a midsize Tesla Model Y/3 mainstream model….then things would have been different and maybe a 50k plus annual volume .

Tesla sells over 100k plus Model Y/3 a month.

 

[michel]

To an average person - it’s more or less a minivan style suv for a 7 seater. Let’s be realistic. If it was a midsize Tesla Model Y/3 mainstream model then things would have been different.

If that means they bring out the midsized models earlier I'm all for it

 

[FA14]

If that means they bring out the midsized models earlier I'm all for it

Exactly - but that’s 2-3 years away. Back to my original post….they would need 10s of billions of $$$ to stay afloat and it will be a long hard journey with the current market trends and ev sentiments. Key for lucid will be to invest massively in the software and end user experience to retain any existing customers.

 

[Batteryman]

Most likely 3-4 years away …and the funding they can secure for that time frame to stay alive.

Lucid’s short term future depends on the success of the gravity which will be released end of the year and the ability to scale production. They are producing 10k Airs yearly and let’s say another 10k Gravity. With a combined production output of 20k vehicles…it’s nearly impossible to survive or to scale ahead without more cash burn.

To achieve profitability or avoid negative cash flow these are the most important metrics.

They will sell more than 10k Gravity SUV's- and Peter already said midsize will start production end of 2026. I'm expecting 12k Air and 20k Gravity for 2025, 20K air and 40k Gravity by 2026. Note, this includes Saudi Gov purchases....don't forget that part.

 

[michel]

Exactly - but that’s 2-3 years away. Back to my original post….they would need 10s of billions of $$$ to stay afloat and it will be a long hard journey with the current market trends and ev sentiments. Key for lucid will be to invest massively in the software and end user experience to retain any existing customers.

Yeah. Legacy automakers have the ability to just delay the EV transition and ship more hybrids. Lucid, Rivian, Tesla and many of the Chinese players don't have that luxury.

That being said I think eventually there still needs to be more EVs, since at least in Europe the fleet fuel efficiency targets are getting ever tighter, but Lucid is relying on its Saudi benefactors at least until the midsized platforms are out.

 

[Batteryman]

Main competition for Gravity is Model X which sells around 20k units every year. Do the math. And how many buyers are willing to spend 80k -120k on a minivan/crossover suv ?

Gravity starts below 80k, and Tesla Model X is a decade old design that has lost it's luster a long time ago....

 

[Batteryman]

Yeah. Legacy automakers have the ability to just delay the EV transition and ship more hybrids. Lucid, Rivian, Tesla and many of the Chinese players don't have that luxury.

That being said I think eventually there still needs to be more EVs, since at least in Europe the fleet fuel efficiency targets are getting ever tighter, but Lucid is relying on its Saudi benefactors at least until the midsized platforms are out.

With ICE manufacturers cuttind down on EV;s, this means lower battery demand, cheaper batteries, cheaper EV's from those still committed. The big 3 in Detroit, Germans, Japanese will fall further behind. They are like deers stairing at headlights.

Do we look shortterm, build more hybrids, and improve shortterm profits, thereby falling more behind Tesla, Rivian and Lucid in EV technology, or do we lose billions investing in EV's and see the share price drop substantially?

They are between a rock and a hard place. Only Hyundai/Kia/Genesis seem to have their act together. The Germans Ev's are nothing to talk about and Japanese are evn further behind. Look at Volvo/Geely- all thye can muster is a 300 mile range for their 3 row SUV. Miles behind Lucid Gravity.

 

[DeaneG]

Main competition for Gravity is Model X which sells around 20k units every year. Do the math. And how many buyers are willing to spend 80k -120k on a minivan/crossover suv ?

People who actually have done the math, at Lucid, say that Gravity will increase their total addressable market by a factor of six.
But I completely agree with you, and also incidentally with management at Lucid, that the midsize platform is their key to reaching breakeven.

 

[Haggy]

I'm also curious. If it's like Rivian (and they have planned this for a while) it could be as early as a year or two after the midsize SUV.

I can keep my EV6 for longer - being able to choose between a small Lucid sedan, the BMW NK i3/i4, and the Rivian R3 (not a sedan, so not a direct competitor but more compact so easier to park) would be amazing

How do you like the EV6 in the meantime? I can't wait for the new Lucids to come out. I mean that literally. My father needs a new car. He's 90 years old, and waiting for a few years isn't such a great idea. He might not need a car by then. In the meantime, he's got my Model S, and he finds the roof of it and the Air too low, so I'm thinking that something like it or an EV9 might be a good choice. Of course if Lucid said tomorrow that a release date was set for the Gravity, that would change everything. I don't miss the irony of asking about a non-Lucid in a Lucid forum, and I expect Lucid to blow these other vehicles away when they have a bigger lineup. But the EV9 and others have gotten decent reviews, and might be a good interim choice. Or final choice if he stops driving.

 

[borski]

How do you like the EV6 in the meantime? I can't wait for the new Lucids to come out. I mean that literally. My father needs a new car. He's 90 years old, and waiting for a few years isn't such a great idea. He might not need a car by then. In the meantime, he's got my Model S, and he finds the roof of it and the Air too low, so I'm thinking that something like it or an EV9 might be a good choice. Of course if Lucid said tomorrow that a release date was set for the Gravity, that would change everything. I don't miss the irony of asking about a non-Lucid in a Lucid forum, and I expect Lucid to blow these other vehicles away when they have a bigger lineup. But the EV9 and others have gotten decent reviews, and might be a good interim choice. Or final choice if he stops driving.

Both the Hyundai Ioniq series and the Kia EV series are bascally the same vehicles with design differences. I would check them out. Our Ioniq 5 is great, for what it is.

 

[michel]

How do you like the EV6 in the meantime? I can't wait for the new Lucids to come out. I mean that literally. My father needs a new car. He's 90 years old, and waiting for a few years isn't such a great idea. He might not need a car by then. In the meantime, he's got my Model S, and he finds the roof of it and the Air too low, so I'm thinking that something like it or an EV9 might be a good choice. Of course if Lucid said tomorrow that a release date was set for the Gravity, that would change everything. I don't miss the irony of asking about a non-Lucid in a Lucid forum, and I expect Lucid to blow these other vehicles away when they have a bigger lineup. But the EV9 and others have gotten decent reviews, and might be a good interim choice. Or final choice if he stops driving.

I love the EV6 (and @borski his IONIQ 5, I see). Also check out the Genesis GV60. They all charge almost as fast as the Lucid, are reasonably efficient (my AWD model dips under 3 mi/kWh if I drive at 75 mph+, IONIQ a bit less due to aero, GV60 less still as it's the heaviest), quite spacious inside (but small frunk), and the EV6 handles almost like a sporty car though it's a bit too tall. If your dad is used to the model S this is no biggie, but these can be driven more like normal cars - blended regen+friction brake, and at lowest regen you can almost coast by lifting the throttle. Auto Regen mode (that adjusts based on terrain and obstacles) is neat.

They are very similar but tuned differently - the IONIQ 5 suspension is softer (unless you get the N model), EV6 most sporty, GV60 in between.

If headroom is a concern in the EV6 GT-Line, try the Wind trim (but add the Tech package) - the sunroof in the former sacrifices headroom and can't be optioned out, the IONIQ 5 and GV60 are taller and iirc come with glass roof rather than a traditional sunroof so it's less of an issue. Definitely not an issue on the EV9 as well.

Kudos to your dad, I hope I'll still be driving when I'm 90 too!