Lucid future and possible consequences

[Grnr92663]

Seeing how the Qatar spent $220B in the WorldCup, with expected rev be around $15B - the rest is to invest for a long term future with less dependency on oil, I wouldn't worry much about the Saudi pulling the plug on its EV investment based on short term loss.

These large funds are in for the long run. Just check on their records in how they funded Citi, Disney, P&G, AMD ..... and always stayed through with them at the worst time & see these companies thrive years later....Chance is, they don't stare at the daily stock price ....

Zoom out - problems seen with Lucid & Rivian are typical problems for new companies - but they do have REAL & SUPERIOR products. As long as they stay on course and their backers are with them, they'll do fine.

FYI, for anyone saying beating Tesla on tech is easy, my neighbor who owns an Audi Etron (recently purchased Black S version, $115K) ran out of juice less than 200 miles on his trip and needed a tow truck. Elon is madly amused with Lucid, from the Plaid+ to comment on Peter to mocking Lucid's problems ..... He doesn't like seeing Tesla tech is no longer 1st

 

[Bunnylebowski]

I am wondering how many Lucid owners put more than 10,000 miles on their cars. I am from Chicago and yesterday I attended the Holiday event hosted by Lucid in goose Island. I have more than 10,000miles on my car and there I met a guy from Wisconsin that has 11,000 miles on his Lucid.

I am very happy with my GT and it is best car I ever had in many respects. I met the CFO and they are all very confident about the future of Lucid

I’ve had my car 8 months and have 11,600 breakdown free miles. Elon is a classless juvenile with no professionalism. The company that’s facing financial trouble is HIS company Twitter, he’s just trying to distract from that. Lucid is the only EV competitor he’s mentioned, meanwhile the closest Lucid has come to acknowledging their existence is when they showed the indisputable superiority of their drive train in the tech talk video, they said it was from “another popular EV company” with a smirk on their face.

 

[HC_79]

China market is tough. Supposedly, the EQS now has a 30K discount over there.

I’m self declaring myself an online reporter who has no credentials whatsoever and creates newsworthy stories based on pure speculation and rumor. Here’s my first headline…..

“Mercedes on verge of bankruptcy after EQS fails in China, offering $30K discounts”

 

[emoylv]

One of the BIG advantages for Lucid is the backing of the Saudi government in terms of not just the money but the commitment to purchase 100,000 vehicles. Like some of you, I purchased Lucid when it was CCIV and currently taking a bath on it. I don't care; it was a "home run" stock for me anyway, and my granddaughter will cash in on it. The past week looks promising with all the VINs being issued. I think 2022/4 and 2023/1 numbers will be a critical indicator. If Lucid makes the numbers, I think LCID shares will pop. I also believe the revenue going forward will help fund the Gravity and a future less expensive model. Keep an eye on solid-state battery technology. It's in its infancy. If/when it becomes available, range anxiety will become an oxymoron. And I'm betting that Lucid will be right there with the goods. I expect to be getting rid of my Touring right after I make my last payment on it, and I haven't even gotten mine yet lol!

 

[RangePerformance]

I think it is a fair question to ask what happens to current car owners if Lucid goes out of business. It is a software defined car and requires software updates to continue working. What do you do if it t bricks and the company is out of business? Is this just a risk that we take when buying a Lucid?

 

[noobzilla]

My thoughts on this.

Bad timing for Lucid. COVID supply chain issues, recession and EV credit update going to reduce demand for the car. They are eating up cash fast. I dont know exact numbers but they're going to need to sell enough cars to breakeven. I'm thinking, if it wasnt for these very unusual events the past 3 years.. would Lucid be doing well? I'd say yes.

Remember that Tesla took a while to be profitable. I think it will be harder for Lucid to penetrate the market since it doesn't have that Tesla and Elon Musk next big thing hype. However, over time the brand will pick up. I have not heard of anyone who overall prefer their Tesla over their Lucid. Really it's a good product, just bad timing.

It is possible Lucid could close in the U.S. in a bad case, but being funded by the Saudis and their knack for luxury, Lucid should at least survive in the middle east market. Lucid will be their Tesla there. Lucid can move their production at cheaper countries and export to U.S. too. I think this is the reasonable worst case scenario so overall I'm not too worried.

 

[HariK]

If a competitor is saying the company will go bankrupt, should we take his word or think if he is afraid of the competition? Tesla went through similar fate in its initial years - refer here - https://www.mosaic.tech/post/tesla-from-brink-of-bankruptcy-twice-to-worlds-most-valuable-automaker. If the worry is about stock, then below picture shows how TSLA fared even after 10 years in existence. What Lucid has as a product is exponentially better than what tesla had in the beginning years and i hoping it will only get better. View attachment 7481

5yr support level 129. Interesting to note 30% of 180 is 120. Imagine the combined effect of 30% global Tesla sales falling which is not at all far fetched in the next 2 years and GM and VW ramping up on the low end, Mercedes on the high end in addition to Lucid. Where do you think the market share will come from?

 

[Lucken]

However as I mentioned earlier and nobody has yet commented, aside from the question of Lucid’s longevity, this is another concern of mine. I’ll quote from my earlier post:

“After reading another thread where the poster commented on this issue, I decided to look for myself. My concern was not the price hit these cars have taken, but rather the sheer number of used Lucids on the market. Honestly, I was more than a bit surprised given the low volume of cars produced thus far.

Do others feel the ratio of used Lucids already on the market to total production thus far is typical or atypical? Were many of these spec owners thinking they’d make a quick killing from impatient reservation holders or were they owners with issues with their cars who simply gave up?”

 

[digiboxer]

One of the BIG advantages for Lucid is the backing of the Saudi government in terms of not just the money but the commitment to purchase 100,000 vehicles. Like some of you, I purchased Lucid when it was CCIV and currently taking a bath on it. I don't care; it was a "home run" stock for me anyway, and my granddaughter will cash in on it. The past week looks promising with all the VINs being issued. I think 2022/4 and 2023/1 numbers will be a critical indicator. If Lucid makes the numbers, I think LCID shares will pop. I also believe the revenue going forward will help fund the Gravity and a future less expensive model. Keep an eye on solid-state battery technology. It's in its infancy. If/when it becomes available, range anxiety will become an oxymoron. And I'm betting that Lucid will be right there with the goods. I expect to be getting rid of my Touring right after I make my last payment on it, and I haven't even gotten mine yet lol!

I think the key will be the backlog...it's strange that it shrank last quarter---I would have expected the opposite.

If it turns out there is limited appeal for the Air (no matter the reason), then Lucid has no Act Two for at least a year or more. And that is not a good setting in which to enter the capital markets looking for cash, which runs out next year.

That said, I think the risk is much greater for Shareholders than Air-holders....I just don't see the Saudis walking away and watching LCID liquidate. But they might end up being the funding source of last resort, which likely won't end well for current shareholders.

The market seems to be grasping this....

 

[borski]

Were many of these spec owners thinking they’d make a quick killing from impatient reservation holders or were they owners with issues with their cars who simply gave up?

Yes. Many were trying to game the absurd used car market of 2021/2022 until now, thinking they could flip for a profit, as evidenced by the low miles. If you’ve driven 250 miles, aka half a charge, you did not get the car to drive it.

The other group is folks who had the 1.0 software and lost patience - that’s completely reasonable, but no longer an issue post-2.0. I know of at least three former owners who regretted selling their Airs after they got to play with 2.0.

Lucid doesn’t seem to be taking the bait and responding so for now, it seems they don’t seem to phased by it. Most times, if “rumors” are true a companies PR department goes into damage control to spin the story in a positive way. Lucid’s silence is telling.

Yeah, that’s not Peter’s style. Note how he calls the Sapphire numbers “satisfactory,” lol. It’s not INSANE, or LUDICROUS!, it’s… satisfactory.

I like that approach much better, but there’s a reason a lot of people like a hypeman or a celebrity.

 

[NoseyReporter]

However as I mentioned earlier and nobody has yet commented, aside from the question of Lucid’s longevity, this is another concern of mine. I’ll quote from my earlier post:

“After reading another thread where the poster commented on this issue, I decided to look for myself. My concern was not the price hit these cars have taken, but rather the sheer number of used Lucids on the market. Honestly, I was more than a bit surprised given the low volume of cars produced thus far.

Do others feel the ratio of used Lucids already on the market to total production thus far is typical or atypical? Were many of these spec owners thinking they’d make a quick killing from impatient reservation holders or were they owners with issues with their cars who simply gave up?”

I'll take a stab at this one. I agree that there is a shockingly large percentage of used Lucids for sale and I think there is no one reason to dominate them all. Some might have been to flip, or others perhaps didn't feel like it was polished enough or perhaps fell short of what was promised.
I suspect several interested parties are watching to see how things shake out. Until the company can iron its issues out, hit pieces in the press will only keep potential owners at bay. Not everyone wants to be an early adopter, deal with software/drive/service/etc issues. Some people want the security of an established brand. Lucid needs time and lots of money to get there, this is what makes an investment in Lucid speculative.

Personally, I believe the engineering issues will get ironed out over time, same with service, customer support, etc. From the outside looking in, software, always seemed to be the make or break. Rawlinson doesn't know anything about software, so making sure Lucid has the right team to bring the software forward is paramount. By the looks of it, the team is doing a great job in this regard but admittedly the software was lackluster from launch and this was already after pushing back the release on the car.

 

[AZLucidGuy]

We do not agree on this. Most owners are extremely happy with their cars; the original deliveries were very lacking in the software department, but that is generally no longer the case. There are some features it lacks, but that’s to be expected.

DreamDrive is on par with most other ADAS systems today on the highway, at least for me.

Agreed. I am very satisfied with my Lucid Air GT and consider it a finished product with UX 2.0.X. Now on 2.0.35 which is great. I have about 1K miles of Highway Assist racked up and it’s great. As good as Tesla (I have a Model 3 as well) on Highway. Wish Lucid would open up for off highway use and increase the time before you have to jiggle the steering wheel though.

 

[DeaneG]

.... the OTA upgrades by legacy makers are not even remotely similar to what tesla and lucid provide)

Volvo, Polestar, Ford at least have been pushing OTA updates with some regularity. At least "remotely" similar.

 

[nasilemak]

Any CEO named Elon needs to put a sock in it.

This evening I went out of my way and drove 4.5 hours on what is normally a 2 hour drive, to meet and shake the hand of CEO/CTO, Peter Rawlinson. I was happy to do it and I felt truly privileged to be in Rawlinson’s company, even for just a few minutes.

If I ever had the misfortune of running into Elon Musk, I’d need to take a long hot shower, and soap myself all over twice.

how was your meet with Peter?

 

[Tim-in-CA]

Yes. Many were trying to game the absurd used car market of 2021/2022 until now, thinking they could flip for a profit, as evidenced by the low miles. If you’ve driven 250 miles, aka half a charge, you did not get the car to drive it.

The other group is folks who had the 1.0 software and lost patience - that’s completely reasonable, but no longer an issue post-2.0. I know of at least three former owners who regretted selling their Airs after they got to play with 2.0.


Yeah, that’s not Peter’s style. Note how he calls the Sapphire numbers “satisfactory,” lol. It’s not INSANE, or LUDICROUS!, it’s… satisfactory.

I like that approach much better, but there’s a reason a lot of people like a hypeman or a celebrity.

That’s the difference between a cool, calm restrained Brit and a perpetually lying Afrikaner emerald miner’s son

 

[chinesejpl]

Volvo, Polestar, Ford at least have been pushing OTA updates with some regularity. At least "remotely" similar.

But have they added anything significant functionally?

 

[LucidBrit]

you do know that all Brits are cool.

 

[HC_79]

But have they added anything significant functionally?

Yeah, Polestar added CarPlay 2 years after it was promised. Lucid basically re-wrote the entire stack in 11 months. Tell me who’s ahead in the OTA game

 

[chinesejpl]

Oh wow. I didn't realize Polestar added that. That's incredible and refreshing. The luxury legacy car makers aren't really adding of substance with their OTA updates (or at least MB and porsche).

 

[JerseyStrong]

The Saudis are building a gigantic ridiculous colony in the desert because they are in some sense looking to the very long term to diversify out of dependence on oil. They've been buying in foreign researchers for years now to a university (KAUST) they conjured up out of nothing just for this purpose. I think Lucid is part of this: they don't want to be left behind as the world moves on from oil for personal transportation - a process which will take decades. It would be reasonable for the PIF to wait until the Gravity has proven itself, or not, to bail.

In that, they are far wiser than many of our legislators.