Possibility of $7500 Gov't hand out going away . . . thoughts ? ?

[Batteryman]

The program NEVI has awarded $2.5 out of 5 billion for the goal of 500,000 chargers. Trump can take the remaining $2.5 billion away but not the other one that was already spent.

So Musk doen't want these subsidies for his charging network...not so honest is he! So much for his motto- "Tesla's mission statement is "to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy".

How many time has he lied?

At least Tesla's are meh compared to Lucid. Lucid can continue dominating the luxury EV market- they are diversified into Europe and Middle East- unlike Rivian.

 

[charleyscott]

Disagree with you, majority of Lucid buyers pay for options, base model wouldn’t sell that much. And Lucid buyers are mostly above income cap. Leasing will be affected, but actual sales will grow. Only reason leases were up to 40% was because if the tax credit. Model X? That’s an ancient design, past its date. MAGA car sales will drop as well. I would rather buy an ICE car than a MAGA Tesla and half the country feel that way.

Great plan by Musk to give away the Ex-USA auto industry to the Chinese! Now Detroit will only sell gas guzzlers to Americans, while China dominates the rest of the world. Changing policy like this every 4 years is pathetic way to run a country. Funny, seeing Tesla cult praise this while they got stabbed in the back by Ego Muck

What are your assumptions for believing that sales will grow? Again, if someone is unwilling to pay a certain price for a Lucid, that unwillingness should not be affected by an increase in the price of another manufacturer's EV.

Also, you are disregarding the fact that Lucid is hoping to sell the mid-size (and likely the Pure-trim Gravity, as well) at prices that qualify for the credit, presumably to buyers with incomes below the cap.

There is simply no way that eliminating EV tax credits is good for Lucid overall.

 

[HC_79]

One would think auto and battery companies that put major capex into EV, relying on those subsidies, might have something to say to their congresspeople.

Not sure how much "investing" some companies did when they got another $1.7B from the taxpayer to upgrade plants etc.

"As part of President Biden’s Investing in America agenda, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) today announced $1.7 billion to support the conversion of 11 shuttered or at-risk auto manufacturing and assembly facilities across eight state"

 

[illopp00]

Disagree with you, majority of Lucid buyers pay for options, base model wouldn’t sell that much. And Lucid buyers are mostly above income cap. Leasing will be affected, but actual sales will grow. Only reason leases were up to 40% was because if the tax credit. Model X? That’s an ancient design, past its date. MAGA car sales will drop as well. I would rather buy an ICE car than a MAGA Tesla and half the country feel that way.

Great plan by Musk to give away the Ex-USA auto industry to the Chinese! Now Detroit will only sell gas guzzlers to Americans, while China dominates the rest of the world. Changing policy like this every 4 years is pathetic way to run a country. Funny, seeing Tesla cult praise this while they got stabbed in the back by Ego Muck

Cybertruck will be massively impacted....

 

[illopp00]

What are your assumptions for believing that sales will grow? Again, if someone is unwilling to pay a certain price for a Lucid, that unwillingness should not be affected by an increase in the price of another manufacturer's EV.

Also, you are disregarding the fact that Lucid is hoping to sell the mid-size (and likely the Pure-trim Gravity, as well) at prices that qualify for the credit, presumably to buyers with incomes below the cap.

There is simply no way that eliminating EV tax credits is good for Lucid overall.

I think this is also why they are delaying the Touring version of Gravity, they want more clarity on market pricing dynamics and with and with tax credits. I don't mind the leasing loophole closing either, there is also lowering Fed Funds rates which should help out the Financing option although thus far it has made market rates go up.

 

[Tâm]

High-priced luxury cars with many owners who are not poor enough to qualify for subsidies.

"Lucid, amongst all the EV makers, is really the most immune from that."

Lucid CEO Says EV Maker Mostly Immune If Trump Nixes Tax Credit

 

[Leftlane]

The beneficiaries will definitely be ICE cars. If you are asking people to change their ingrained behaviors, and spend a lot more to do it, they will just go with that they know. People spending $100k on EVs is a super limited market - if here is pricing parity, then I could see EVs winning. But if I have to pay a lot more for one than the comparable ICE - forget it. The majority will stay with gas - zero learning curve or hoops to jump through required.

 

[msaunders9430]

The beneficiaries will definitely be ICE cars.

Which would mean, by default, the makers of ICE cars.

That would be true if there were no Chinese EVs in the global market.
The US is moving in the opposite direction of China regarding EVs.

US legacy car makers are losing money in the global market, especially China.
China ev makers may eventually expand production/operations around the world (Europe, Canada, Mexico, etc.).
The Chinese EV makers may eat the cost of imposed tariffs (possible with lost cost of their EVs) or arrange pricing agreements with other countries, while also building production facilities in those countries. Trump is probably hoping US tariffs will entice Chinese EV makers to build production facilities in the US. He's probably right about that since, as previously stated, other countries may be doing so. https://www.theinformation.com/arti...rs-to-build-in-the-u-s-will-he-follow-through
If that happens, US ICE car makers will have to adjust. Reminds me of the 1970's with Japanese car makers. US consumers don't know it yet, but they deserve better than ICE cars or low quality EVs made by legacy US car makers.

Lucid and Rivian will be ahead of the game.
Lucid may have new customers (US car makers) for their technology.

 

[msaunders9430]

Which would mean, by default, the makers of ICE cars.

That would be true if there were no Chinese EVs in the global market.
The US is moving in the opposite direction of China regarding EVs.

US legacy car makers are losing money in the global market, especially China.
China ev makers may eventually expand production/operations around the world (Europe, Canada, Mexico, etc.).
The Chinese EV makers may eat the cost of imposed tariffs (possible with lost cost of their EVs) or arrange pricing agreements with other countries, while also building production facilities in those countries. Trump is probably hoping US tariffs will entice Chinese EV makers to build production facilities in the US. He's probably right about that since, as previously stated, other countries may be doing so. https://www.theinformation.com/arti...rs-to-build-in-the-u-s-will-he-follow-through
If that happens, US ICE car makers will have to adjust. Reminds me of the 1970's with Japanese car makers. US consumers don't know it yet, but they deserve better than ICE cars or low quality EVs made by legacy US car makers.

Lucid and Rivian will be ahead of the game.
Lucid may have new customers (US car makers) for their technology.

The linked article in my previous post seems to require a subscription.
Here is a related article about Trump's willingness to consider Chinese EV makers and/or battery makers to build facilities in the US.
Great for US workers (more jobs). Not sure how security concerns would be handled. That's another thread in the future.

 

[Zinee]

High-priced luxury cars with many owners who are not poor enough to qualify for subsidies.

"Lucid, amongst all the EV makers, is really the most immune from that."

Lucid CEO Says EV Maker Mostly Immune If Trump Nixes Tax Credit

Not sure if Lucid is really immune to loss of the tax credit. 80% of EV's are leased. https://insideevs.com/news/737672/ev-leasing-edmunds-popularity/ Disclaimer--those figures don't include Lucid, and I couldn't find a breakdown of Lucid sales/leases. If even 50% of Lucid's are leased, loss of the $7,500 credit may push some people away due to higher monthly payments.

 

[Chizle]

Not sure if Lucid is really immune to loss of the tax credit. 80% of EV's are leased. https://insideevs.com/news/737672/ev-leasing-edmunds-popularity/ Disclaimer--those figures don't include Lucid, and I couldn't find a breakdown of Lucid sales/leases. If even 50% of Lucid's are leased, loss of the $7,500 credit may push some people away due to higher monthly payments.

Wasn't it announced that of the Q3 sales of 2,781 vehicles, only 8% were leases?

 

[Batteryman]

Which would mean, by default, the makers of ICE cars.

That would be true if there were no Chinese EVs in the global market.
The US is moving in the opposite direction of China regarding EVs.

US legacy car makers are losing money in the global market, especially China.
China ev makers may eventually expand production/operations around the world (Europe, Canada, Mexico, etc.).
The Chinese EV makers may eat the cost of imposed tariffs (possible with lost cost of their EVs) or arrange pricing agreements with other countries, while also building production facilities in those countries. Trump is probably hoping US tariffs will entice Chinese EV makers to build production facilities in the US. He's probably right about that since, as previously stated, other countries may be doing so. https://www.theinformation.com/arti...rs-to-build-in-the-u-s-will-he-follow-through
If that happens, US ICE car makers will have to adjust. Reminds me of the 1970's with Japanese car makers. US consumers don't know it yet, but they deserve better than ICE cars or low quality EVs made by legacy US car makers.

Lucid and Rivian will be ahead of the game.
Lucid may have new customers (US car makers) for their technology.

If Chinese come here, Detroit will be bankrupt

 

[Batteryman]

Not sure if Lucid is really immune to loss of the tax credit. 80% of EV's are leased. https://insideevs.com/news/737672/ev-leasing-edmunds-popularity/ Disclaimer--those figures don't include Lucid, and I couldn't find a breakdown of Lucid sales/leases. If even 50% of Lucid's are leased, loss of the $7,500 credit may push some people away due to higher monthly payments.

Lease only goes up $120 a month, not really a deal breaker for a 72k vehicle if your income is above 100k

 

[borski]

Not sure if Lucid is really immune to loss of the tax credit. 80% of EV's are leased. https://insideevs.com/news/737672/ev-leasing-edmunds-popularity/ Disclaimer--those figures don't include Lucid, and I couldn't find a breakdown of Lucid sales/leases. If even 50% of Lucid's are leased, loss of the $7,500 credit may push some people away due to higher monthly payments.

They could just increase the residual and keep the monthly payments the same.

 

[Pragmatic]

And cost them the $7500 at turn-in. If they are willing to take the hit on residual then they can lower the payment even more with the credit. Either way it will lower lease sales or lower profits on leased cars.

 

[illopp00]

Agreed, it's doable now. It appears the removal of the tax credit will help used EVs depreciate less, which then will have the effect of making leasing less attractive as a hedge and like @borski stated just embed those savings back into the payment. Not to mention the big price cuts are stabilizing, they have figured out to use discounting instead to move volume instead of messing with MSRP and moving around the whole market.

How EV Tax Credits Affect Vehicle Depreciation – Green Energy Times

Green Energy Times is designed, utilizing 100 percent solar, off-grid with a 3.8 kW PV system. We are a people’s paper, published by a passionate band of Vermonters whose mission is to create radical Energy Awareness, Understanding and Independence.

www.greenenergytimes.org

 

[Pragmatic]

By that logic there should be a $7500 tax on the purchase of an EV. The tax would increase the resale value by $7500 but the owner wouldn't see any of it.

 

[Zinee]

I found the chart I was referring to earlier--showing EV lease/purchase rates (through July 2024). 78% of Lucid Air transactions are leases.

 

[illopp00]

By that logic there should be a $7500 tax on the purchase of an EV. The tax would increase the resale value by $7500 but the owner wouldn't see any of it.

I don't think that analogy quite works although I understand your point and sentiment. Current Tax credit is effectively taken off the MSRP, whereases your sales tax is already there and not part of it. If you were to tax the actual buyer I guess you could pass that cost on if it did apply to the 2nd buyer...

 

[illopp00]

I found the chart I was referring to earlier--showing EV lease/purchase rates (through July 2024). 78% of Lucid Air transactions are leases.


View attachment 24620

Nice chart and look at the difference between the competitors like Audi, MB, Polestar and BMW which are about 85% lease...perhaps their lease deals are even better. Or the dealership model is encouraging them to just clear the lots.