If delivery target is not met due to fit and finish issues

[manitou202]

i still have my reservation for a Launch Edition R1S, with the most recent communication from Rivian saying a May/June delivery.

I wonder how many other posters here have Rivian reservations?

We have a Launch Edition R1S reservation as well. Our window is July-September. I'm skeptical they will hit this target honestly.

 

[ac.bill]

That's an interesting observation about Rivian. I have a reservation on a R1S. Do you feel the same about Lucid? Or how do you perceive Lucid Production compared to Rivian?

Lucid's biggest roadblock has always been funding. I followed them since they were Atieva, showing off their tech by drag racing hot cars in an old van they outfitted with their own tech. Their goal back in the mid 2000s was to attract OEMs with their electric drive systems and battery packs. The big OEMs were having none of it though. As we now know, traditional OEMs were late in realizing EVs would be a thing.

Rawlinson apparently clashed with "Tesla management". Atieva saw an opportunity in him to build their own car with the tech they had developed. He brought genuine 'car guy' skills and a reputation that let him attract top talent and resources to the company. Finally getting PIF Kept the company afloat and let them make the company one step closer to viable. Then Churchill brought the SPAC money, not as much as Lucid now needed but close. Finally enthusiastic investors pushed up share price enough to sell enough in convertible notes to survive through the AMP-1 factory build-out..

So, to answer your question, no, I don't feel the same about Lucid. They are charging realistic prices for what they offer. These are not profitable cars, not today, but I don't believe Lucid is selling them at a material loss. The burn rate is very high though and it is important to get production ironed out this year. I don't see a fundamental flaw in Lucid's business plan and Rawlinson's sales forecast seems achievable. The critical thing for them now is to manage their burn rate. The biggest single threat is the potential of a recession that could undermine sales of luxury vehicles. Lucid did get authority in the merger vote to issue as many new shares as needed to fund growing the business but they need to be judicious about using that authority. I expect them to succeed and can't wait to get my GT.

Biggest potential upside surprise could be licensing their tech or selling parts to a big OEM. Rumors of Lucid building the Apple car are, in my opinion, silly. It doesn't make business sense for Apple.

I only hold 600-ish shares of LCID today out of the several tens of thousands I have traded. The stock is overpriced (my opinion) and very volatile.

 

[mnewber1]

I am guessing they are just now reaching around 300 delivered next week. They have three weeks to meet their 2021 goal. I have a feeling they're at least a month behind based on the highest number DE I've seen was #295 which was delayed due to technical issues. Plus the Bear's Workshop numbers.

 

[steveairgt]

Given that they “may” have all DEs delivered in the next few weeks, who thinks Lucid can achieve 20,000 deliveries this year? Seems like a huge ramp from the current single digits of cars per day.

 

[mnewber1]

Given that they “may” have all DEs delivered in the next few weeks, who thinks Lucid can achieve 20,000 deliveries this year? Seems like a huge ramp from the current single digits of cars per day.

AMP-2 is looking good and I know nothing about construction but others have commented it may be done by August 2022.

 

[dawktah LucidGT]

They are "going" to break ground on two half million square foot warehouses right next to our home and both will be done by Q4.

 

[steveairgt]

They are "going" to break ground on two half million square foot warehouses right next to our home and both will be done by Q4.

That doesn’t mean they will produce much out of them this year.

 

[ac.bill]

That doesn’t mean they will produce much out of them this year.

No, it doesn't tell us anything one way or the other. The Air is a big sedan and big sedans don't sell in large numbers today. Tesla never sold 30,000 Model Ss in a year.
The extra space and the new factory needs to be in place to start volume production of the Gravity SUV. Suvs sell in large numbers. lucid was wise to start with a modest volume high margin vehicle like the Air.
BTW, My DA called today. Air Grand Touring models are now in production.

 

[steveairgt]

No, it doesn't tell us anything one way or the other. The Air is a big sedan and big sedans don't sell in large numbers today. Tesla never sold 30,000 Model Ss in a year.
The extra space and the new factory needs to be in place to start volume production of the Gravity SUV. Suvs sell in large numbers. lucid was wise to start with a modest volume high margin vehicle like the Air.
BTW, My DA called today. Air Grand Touring models are now in production.

But they did say in Q3 2021 ER they planned on 20,000 units in 2022. True?

 

[ac.bill]

But they did say in Q3 2021 ER they planned on 20,000 units in 2022. True?

I have no inside knowledge but don't see any reason they couldn't. They know the facilities they have and that was their forecast. They missed the 520 by 1/1 goal but that was reportedly a vendor issue that brought deliveries to a standstill for a time. That of course would be a much faster pace than we see today. It is, after all, just a sales forecast. If we've learned anything over the last couple years it is that circumstances can change. We do know that the new buildings were not part of the plan for this year's Air production. They were only barely moving some dirt before the Q3 call.

 

[duc900]

i still have my reservation for a Launch Edition R1S, with the most recent communication from Rivian saying a May/June delivery.

I wonder how many other posters here have Rivian reservations?

Yeah, similar boat. I have an R1S reservation but not Launch so I think I am still a year + out. Once that became clear, it was AGT all the way. Even though I do think the price to value ration on the R1S is quite favorable compared to the AGT.

 

[HC_79]

I don't think it's achievable unless they can show aggressive ramp up. They had a parts issue on 520 cars which is nothing compared to the 20,000 they committed to this year. With all the hardware shortages everyone is facing globally I don't think Lucid isn't going to be impacted by this also.

 

[steveairgt]

I don't think it's achievable unless they can show aggressive ramp up. They had a parts issue on 520 cars which is nothing compared to the 20,000 they committed to this year. With all the hardware shortages everyone is facing globally I don't think Lucid isn't going to be impacted by this also.

That’s what I was thinking. I expect them to lower 2022 guidance to a more achievable number such as 10,000 - 12,000 units.

They need to get to the point that they set goals and meet or exceed them. Else Wall Street won’t be happy and the stock will take a hit.

 

[Whisky0225]

That’s what I was thinking. I expect them to lower 2022 guidance to a more achievable number such as 10,000 - 12,000 units.

They need to get to the point that they set goals and meet or exceed them. Else Wall Street won’t be happy and the stock will take a hit.

Agree. Due to global supply chain issues, they may be able to reset the 20K expectations without causing a substantial price drop in the stock. However, their DE delivery is still in progress, which is bad news for the stock price.

 

[autana]

i still have my reservation for a Launch Edition R1S, with the most recent communication from Rivian saying a May/June delivery.

I wonder how many other posters here have Rivian reservations?

Anecdotally, I have a reservation for a Rivian Launch Edition R1T, placed early Dec 2019. My three most recent communications told me that my truck was to be delivered June (2021), then Sept (2021). I got a phone called from the DA that the truck will be ready after Nov but before December (2021). This was confirmed with email.... It is mid Feb 2022, and I already have my Lucid DE Performance and I have doubts that I will get my Rivian truck this summer (2022) or may be September... So I would not (IMHO) hold my breath on what they say regarding delivery dates. Just my two cents...