If delivery target is not met due to fit and finish issues

AIR.LUCID

Active Member
Joined
Nov 22, 2021
Messages
479
Location
El Dorado Hills, CA
Cars
‘04 Prius, ‘98 MB SLK230
If the delivery numbers aren’t great, maybe they could announce as many as 25K :rolleyes: reservations to push up the stock.
 
If the delivery numbers aren’t great, maybe they could announce as many as 25K :rolleyes: reservations to push up the stock.
I would be very cautious about any hopes for a share price increase or especially for Rawlinson pumping it. I did incredibly well swing-trading CCIV/LCID since last January but that kind of thing is very high risk. Given Lucid's own sales projections for out years, today's share price is "highly optimistic". It can and probably will swing up and down for some time to come, driven more by speculation than actual news.
 
Today qould have been a great day to scoop some more shares. Dropped down to 33.74 for a short period.
 
Today qould have been a great day to scoop some more shares. Dropped down to 33.74 for a short period.

Yeah, I grabbed some more yesterday. Should've held off :p
 
Sooner or later they will have to admit they missed the delivery numbers for 2021 big time. Given the SEC investigation I'm actually very surprised they haven't gone ahead and come forward with the details of the miss. The longer they wait the greater the negative impact in my opinion. I'm sure there will be attempts to gloss over it with increased reservations or comments on production, but the reality is they should have released it by now. It's not like they don't know the real numbers.
 
Today qould have been a great day to scoop some more shares. Dropped down to 33.74 for a short period.
I would agree if I were still actively trading. I'm not. It is very stressful and the winds of change are blowing in financial markets. Finishing out AMP-1 will eat up the cash they have on hand today. Future cash will be more costly to raise meaning even further dilution of the 1.6 billion shares out there today, and that's just to get Gravity into production.
I was originally in at $14 not long after the IPO and today might pay as much as $25 for a buy-and-hold position.
 
I think A LOT of people are worried about the PIF lockup expiry. I am just moving some money around to get some shares if it does drop like the original lockup period.
 
If the delivery numbers aren’t great, maybe they could announce as many as 25K :rolleyes: reservations to push up the stock.

I'm wondering if there is a mad rush to get all the AGT pre-orders converted to real orders so future revenue can be shown on the earnings call. I'm surprised at how low the pre-order numbers still are, even if it was just the entry level Pure. At this point in time, they're building a factory that will output more than the orders they have which doesn't look good if they can't get those reservations to increase.
 
I think A LOT of people are worried about the PIF lockup expiry. I am just moving some money around to get some shares if it does drop like the original lockup period.
I really doubt PIF will be selling. The previous drop happened the day before Churchill's shares became unrestricted. Nervous speculators talked themselves into a frenzy leading up to it. I made bank on that one. Same could happen again. Those guys being so predictable. They fully funded my GT. Not joking.
 
I'm wondering if there is a mad rush to get all the AGT pre-orders converted to real orders so future revenue can be shown on the earnings call. I'm surprised at how low the pre-order numbers still are, even if it was just the entry level Pure. At this point in time, they're building a factory that will output more than the orders they have which doesn't look good if they can't get those reservations to increase.
Big sedans aren't popular. 2018 was the best year for the Model S, 29,950 units in the US. Lucid started with the Air because it gave them a chance to handle the volume while they sorted out how to build cars. The Luxury SUV segment is red hot. The Gravity, if it is worthy, will easily rack up huge orders. Gravity won't be so much competing with the goofy Model X as it will with Mercedes GL series, Audi Q series, and Land Rover.
EDIT: & before someone says, in descending order: BMW, Jaguar, Lexus, Genesis GV, Cadillac, Lincoln (no, Infinity didn't make the cut) Add Rivian R1S in there somewhere too.
 
Last edited:
I'm wondering if there is a mad rush to get all the AGT pre-orders converted to real orders so future revenue can be shown on the earnings call. I'm surprised at how low the pre-order numbers still are, even if it was just the entry level Pure. At this point in time, they're building a factory that will output more than the orders they have which doesn't look good if they can't get those reservations to increase.

I imagine they are trying to convert as many reservations as they can schedule for production to help with planning. There are certainly some number of refundable reservations that are just placeholders to keep options open. We saw that with Jon Rettinger who used his Lucid reservation when his EQS reservation went sour. I myself still have a Ford F-150 Lightning reservation open in case Lucid craters. Honestly, I'm trying to think of a way to get my wife to go for the Ford because it would be handy to have around. No way she'll give up her Subaru though, but a man can dream.
 
I imagine they are trying to convert as many reservations as they can schedule for production to help with planning. There are certainly some number of refundable reservations that are just placeholders to keep options open. We saw that with Jon Rettinger who used his Lucid reservation when his EQS reservation went sour. I myself still have a Ford F-150 Lightning reservation open in case Lucid craters. Honestly, I'm trying to think of a way to get my wife to go for the Ford because it would be handy to have around. No way she'll give up her Subaru though, but a man can dream.

I've still got an R1S as a placeholder but doubt I will be getting that anytime soon so I confirmed my AGT order yesterday.
 
Might be able to get a gravity before a R1S
 
I would agree if I were still actively trading. I'm not. It is very stressful and the winds of change are blowing in financial markets. Finishing out AMP-1 will eat up the cash they have on hand today. Future cash will be more costly to raise meaning even further dilution of the 1.6 billion shares out there today, and that's just to get Gravity into production.
I was originally in at $14 not long after the IPO and today might pay as much as $25 for a buy-and-hold position.

I had bought at $20 and sold 250 covered call options at strike price 30. My expiration date is this Jan. 21st. Assuming it will probably be called in 15 days, I plan to wait and not go back in at the present price. I'm a bit concerned about all the software problems mentioned on this forum. Would feel better about the stock if they were quickly resolved.
 
Might be able to get a gravity before a R1S

True. I do prefer an SUV but i'm also impatient so will no doubt be sticking with the AGT :)
 
I had bought at $20 and sold 250 covered call options at strike price 30. My expiration date is this Jan. 21st. Assuming it will probably be called in 15 days, I plan to wait and not go back in at the present price. I'm a bit concerned about all the software problems mentioned on this forum. Would feel better about the stock if they were quickly resolved.

I think they're up to revision 7 or 8 in the software releases since the car was released in October. Trust me, those are very quick releases in the car industry. It took VW almost 1 year to release its OTA update to the ID4. Yes it's buggy but i'm impressed with how quickly they're getting updates out to address issues.
 
Might be able to get a gravity before a R1S

Reading up on the Laura Schwab case really chased me back from Rivian. While the acusations about her treatment and what that says about management were bad enough what really hit home was her claim that Rivian knows its products are underpriced. Being of a background in design and manufacturing in an automotive adjacent industry I had doubts from the beginning about Rivians pricing. four motors means four controllers (even if in the same box). While it eliminates a differential it adds an extra planetary reduction gear at each end. Motor and controller price does not scale with capacity as you might expect. each controller and motor needs cooling. A 100kWh+ battery costs what it costs. I saw a Rivian and it has a Very nice interior. All of that stuff costs. It costs a lot. I cannot see how the base R1T can be sold for less than $100k. Maybe with economies of scale, which they do not have.

I know from painful and costly experience how easy it is to price an item based on assumptions of ideal cost. It is really easy to think you can build a long range cheap stainless Cybertruck on the cheap, and really embarrassing when you can't. Maybe Rivian has some magic sauce I never learned in a manufacturing career. It is more than possible. Nevertheless I did not buy one, their stock, and I never expect to see hundreds of them all over my neighborhood replacing the F-150s and Explorers that are there today, not even replacing the Navigators and Land Rovers. I suspect Rivian has painted itself into a corner.
 
Reading up on the Laura Schwab case really chased me back from Rivian. While the acusations about her treatment and what that says about management were bad enough what really hit home was her claim that Rivian knows its products are underpriced. Being of a background in design and manufacturing in an automotive adjacent industry I had doubts from the beginning about Rivians pricing. four motors means four controllers (even if in the same box). While it eliminates a differential it adds an extra planetary reduction gear at each end. Motor and controller price does not scale with capacity as you might expect. each controller and motor needs cooling. A 100kWh+ battery costs what it costs. I saw a Rivian and it has a Very nice interior. All of that stuff costs. It costs a lot. I cannot see how the base R1T can be sold for less than $100k. Maybe with economies of scale, which they do not have.

I know from painful and costly experience how easy it is to price an item based on assumptions of ideal cost. It is really easy to think you can build a long range cheap stainless Cybertruck on the cheap, and really embarrassing when you can't. Maybe Rivian has some magic sauce I never learned in a manufacturing career. It is more than possible. Nevertheless I did not buy one, their stock, and I never expect to see hundreds of them all over my neighborhood replacing the F-150s and Explorers that are there today, not even replacing the Navigators and Land Rovers. I suspect Rivian has painted itself into a corner.
That's an interesting observation about Rivian. I have a reservation on a R1S. Do you feel the same about Lucid? Or how do you perceive Lucid Production compared to Rivian?
 
i still have my reservation for a Launch Edition R1S, with the most recent communication from Rivian saying a May/June delivery.

I wonder how many other posters here have Rivian reservations?
 
Back
Top