Elon Musk says that Lucid and Rivian are tracking toward bankruptcy...

No, I wouldn't blame it all on supply constraints. You're right. That was just an earlier sentiment that had been expressed that I was continuing on. There's also the manufacturing processes, which were definitely flawed in a major way. But that seems to have been corrected by reassigning QA duties and revamping the entire process. Which, to your point, demonstrates good leadership in my book. Someone doesn't live up to their job description, they get taken out and someone else gets put on their portfolio.

Avoiding mistakes is great. Reacting to them and correcting them is the better skill. Because no one avoids them all.

Not hearing as many complaints about quality (other than software) in the latest batch of deliveries. So that's a good sign. I'm choosing to believe cars coming off the line from this point on will have far fewer warranty repairs needed.

Software has been a total mess, to be sure. I have a feeling the inside story on that one is a doozy. And it's too early to tell if they've made improvements there, honestly. The extent of the damage is pretty great. Still Lucid's biggest challenge as far as I am concerned. And probably their biggest failing thus far.

The software, as it stands, should not have shipped to customers. But weigh that against making all of your customers wait another entire year before getting their cars, and at some point, something has to give. I'm sure there was plenty of pressure to get cars out the door this year, and that decision wasn't easy. Personally, I think they made the wrong call, but who knows? Time will tell.

As far as writing a letter and fessing up to mistakes goes, they literally just did that. It wasn't Rawlinson, but it was Zak Edson, VP of sales. Given it was an apology about not delivering to customers, that seems like an appropriate person to say something.

I'm sure Rawlinson will have more to say on that topic on the next earnings call as well.

Did Rawlinson paint a slightly rosier than reality picture in January? Yeah. Does anyone honestly think it would have been better to say "Look, we've never done this before. We'll probably screw up the first thousand or two thousand cars royally. So be sure to get that preorder in."?
One big problem Lucid has is the following vicious circle (which would exist to some degree even with a "normal" chain): when you're rolling out only, say, 10 cars a day you have zero clout with your suppliers. They live in the world of MASS production. Being the last guy to get supplied exacerbates the lowly production numbers.

They undoubtedly have supply agreements with all the important vendors, but they can't be living up to the quantities in those agreements...
 
Yes. When I say "Should not have shipped to customers" I primarily mean the Dream Edition users who saw the very first iterations. Good to hear with 1.26, for most people, it's finally just a nuisance, rather than a complete disaster.

I still feel like a major speed improvement must be in process, too. There's no reason waking up the car after a few hours should be an entire reboot. It should be more like opening up your laptop lid. One to two seconds, max, to have everything back up and running.

What probably swayed them, in terms of shipping, is the fact that software is the one thing you can update without sending out technicians to every customer. It's the cheapest thing to fix later.
I think if they can get the rebooting down to a minimum and allow multiple apps to run many people will probably be content with what the OS is today. Everything else coming in future OTA's would be enhancements, tweaks, etc. to existing items and some major additions like CarPlay and potentially other Apps etc. but as a base system today, I think it's enough for people to not complain once they address the booting and multiple apps running.
 
Yes. When I say "Should not have shipped to customers" I primarily mean the Dream Edition users who saw the very first iterations. Good to hear with 1.26, for most people, it's finally just a nuisance, rather than a complete disaster.

I still feel like a major speed improvement must be in process, too. There's no reason waking up the car after a few hours should be an entire reboot. It should be more like opening up your laptop lid. One to two seconds, max, to have everything back up and running.

What probably swayed them, in terms of shipping, is the fact that software is the one thing you can update without sending out technicians to every customer. It's the cheapest thing to fix later.
Oh you mean like buying a $170,000 car that doesn't have cruise control? Who would be stupid enough to do that....
 
Elon Musk, with no inside knowledge, says competitors will fail. Absolutely no bias or outside motivation for him to say such a thing..
And on the day before a major news story about him blowing $500 million of the company's money on Bitcoin, no less.

Squirrel!
 
100% agree. Instant on capability would be a massive game changer since that’s the first impression for every driver.
 
If Lucid were having any issues whatsoever with money, you would figure they wouldn't lease more land in Arizona, open Munich and other European stores, continue with studios in Saudi... etc
 
If Lucid were having any issues whatsoever with money, you would figure they wouldn't lease more land in Arizona, open Munich and other European stores, continue with studios in Saudi... etc
I agree but i've also seen many businesses fall into the trap of expanding rapidly thinking everything was going to play out but to then fail abysmally when things don't go to plan. What good are all these Service Centers, Stores, massive production plants if they can't scale and get cars delivered?

If Lucid's reservation numbers don't increase dramatically in the next 1 or 2 quarters they're going to have these production plants that are overkill. I suspect they EMEA launch could perhaps be a result of demand in the US being lower than anticipated.
 
I have faith that 2 years from now, we will be happy they burned all this cash early so that all this infrastructure to support their brand has already been established.
 
I have faith that 2 years from now, we will be happy they burned all this cash early so that all this infrastructure to support their brand has already been established.
Right. The time to build more capacity is before you need it. Not after.
 
I didn’t know we had so many auto manufacturer CEOs in this forum.

At this point, I can’t even get a new power brick for my MacBook Pro until August. Yes. August. And this is Apple. The operations and logistics king of the universe. Can’t get a plastic brick.

I haven’t had to wait this long for an Apple product since, well, before Tim Cook joined the company. When it was normal to wait months for just about any Apple product.

I think it’s fair to say the supply chain has not yet righted itself, as many had hoped it would by now.

Lucid will have a terrible quarter. So will everyone else.

At least Rawlinson didn’t just lose 500 million of the company’s money on Bitcoin in the last quarter.
At the risk of over sharing, I had to wait 30 days for purple dye that comes from China for an emergency angiogram. Somehow we expect perfection from Lucid, but my surgeon couldn't even get life saving purple dye that has always been readily available.
 
At the risk of over sharing, I had to wait 30 days for purple dye that comes from China for an emergency angiogram. Somehow we expect perfection from Lucid, but my surgeon couldn't even get life saving purple dye that has always been readily available.
obviously your surgeon needs to fire the hospital director...
 
I agree but i've also seen many businesses fall into the trap of expanding rapidly thinking everything was going to play out but to then fail abysmally when things don't go to plan. What good are all these Service Centers, Stores, massive production plants if they can't scale and get cars delivered?

If Lucid's reservation numbers don't increase dramatically in the next 1 or 2 quarters they're going to have these production plants that are overkill. I suspect they EMEA launch could perhaps be a result of demand in the US being lower than anticipated.
Or like the mystery where all attempts to unlock my car have not worked, yet. Not having a manual way to open the doors from outside is a major miss IMO. We will see what happens and the diagnosis and outcome. Can only imagine being locked out in some remote place late at night (EVen more dramatic if one is with family).

6 Billion does not go far even by their own admission. They will need more Cash in 2023. Their problem is they already have 1.79 Billion Shares outstanding.
 
Or like the mystery where all attempts to unlock my car have not worked, yet. Not having a manual way to open the doors from outside is a major miss IMO. We will see what happens and the diagnosis and outcome. Can only imagine being locked out in some remote place late at night (EVen more dramatic if one is with family).

6 Billion does not go far even by their own admission. They will need more Cash in 2023. Their problem is they already have 1.79 Billion Shares outstanding.
Try getting into any car without a keyed entry with a dead 12v....
 
Try getting into any car without a keyed entry with a dead 12v....
Yeah, I don't know what they could have done here, short of adding a physical key and keyhole. (Which, hey, many, many other manufacturers do.) Any other method of getting the door open from the outside could easily be exploited by a thief, no?
 
I agree- manufacturing large and complex products is a whole different animal! Weird that I refer to these as startups in retrospect: Lucid was founded in 2007 (Atieva) and Rivian in 2009! They would be mature established companies in the software world!
And both have gone public with muti-billion market caps....not my def of "start-up"....
 
And on the day before a major news story about him blowing $500 million of the company's money on Bitcoin, no less.

Squirrel!
I think the interview was recorded a week or 2 ago. Tesla’s BTC holdings are well known / public so it’s not really a surprise that when BTC takes a dump it affects the balance sheets of companies that hold it.

I do agree with his comment that is is critical Lucid and Rivian get costs under control though.
 
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