Air Touring versus Air GT

[Adnillien]

If the Pure was indeed pushed out even further...

Here are some numbers to think about. Lucid has 13,000 reservation at last report and seem to be adding around 1000 per month. They are planning on producing 20,000 cars in 2022. Assuming they double the rate of reservations to 2000 per month, that makes 37,000 by this time next year. If half the reservations are for the Pure, they have to produce some Pure next year to hit their 20,000. If only 40% of the reservations are for Pure then maybe not. That is why I think it all depends on sales of the GT and Touring.

 

[Lucken]

According to the sales associate I worked with at the NY studio, the overwhelming majority of reservations there were for the Pure. How that extrapolates nationwide, I have no idea.

 

[Sandvinsd]

According to the sales associate I worked with at the NY studio, the overwhelming majority of reservations there were for the Pure. How that extrapolates nationwide, I have no idea.

That is not surprising. Back in February Lucid announced 8000 reservations representing about $700M in sales. That equates to about $87k per car. If one subtracts out the 500 Dreams, it equates to 7500 reservations on the other 3 trims at $82k per car. Since the Pure is $77K before any rebates, nearly all the reservations at the February reporting were Air Pure Trims. To put it another way, for every Touring, there is 1 Pure reservation. For every AGT, there are about 5 Pure reservations.

Lucid Motors Now Has 11,000 Vehicle Reservations | The Motley Fool

The nascent electric vehicle (EV) maker continues to garner vehicle reservations and consumer interest.

www.fool.com

 

[Lucken]

Interesting, your numbers do make sense. I’m assuming there were no dramatic shifts in the reservation mix subsequent to February, but that’s obviously just a guess.

With that said, there was this discouraging piece from the article, ‘Eventually, the goal is to start selling the $70,000 Air Pure about 18 months after the first cars hit the road.’

Based on the reservation mix you conjectured and I agree makes sense, there aren’t 18 months worth of non-Pure reservations to even begin taking 18 months of production time. The only way this makes sense is the anticipation of a large amount of ongoing non-Pure reservations.

I certainly would not wait another 18 months for the first Pure deliveries. I’d move on to something like the BMW.

 

[dawktah LucidGT]

I'll let everyone know when I receive an email from Lucid. Nothing yet.

 

[Dortreo]

The other consideration regarding when AGTs will be delivered (besides color and when you reserved) is the area of the country where you live. As I‘m in Massachusetts, I doubt we’ll see any deliveries here before the Lucid Studio opens in Q1 2022. Lucid is still hiring for the Studio Manager, so if anyone is interested….

Of course, getting a new car in the dead of Boston winter isn’t that much fun, so I’m good to wait until Spring/Summer.

 

[dawktah LucidGT]

The other consideration regarding when AGTs will be delivered (besides color and when you reserved) is the area of the country where you live. As I‘m in Massachusetts, I doubt we’ll see any deliveries here before the Lucid Studio opens in Q1 2022. Lucid is still hiring for the Studio Manager, so if anyone is interested….

Of course, getting a new car in the dead of Boston winter isn’t that much fun, so I’m good to wait until Spring/Summer.

I have not heard of any plans for there to be a Studio in Indianapolis. So, I can't be held up for that notion. Nearest that is open is in Oak Brook, IL and Service Center, Goose Island Chicago.

 

[Dortreo]

I have not heard of any plans for there to be a Studio in Indianapolis. So, I can't be held up for that notion. Nearest that is open is in Oak Brook, IL and Service Center, Goose Island Chicago.

Good point. At least you'll have the opportunity to stop by Three Floyds to and from the Chicago Studio.

 

[WildRide47]

The other consideration regarding when AGTs will be delivered (besides color and when you reserved) is the area of the country where you live. As I‘m in Massachusetts, I doubt we’ll see any deliveries here before the Lucid Studio opens in Q1 2022. Lucid is still hiring for the Studio Manager, so if anyone is interested….

Of course, getting a new car in the dead of Boston winter isn’t that much fun, so I’m good to wait until Spring/Summer.

There is also no plans to open a studio in 2022 in Portland, yet I have a deposit down for an AGT. I doubt they will hold my car from delivery for over a year.

 

[Dortreo]

There is also no plans to open a studio in 2022 in Portland, yet I have a deposit down for an AGT. I doubt they will hold my car from delivery for over a year.

Bear in mind, it's not whether you receive your car but when. And hopefully Lucid ups their infrastructure plans to get strong coverage through the US before expanding too far afield.

From the other forum:

"As for now, some early Lucid rsrv holders might not receive the confirmation - I talked to few people who work at Lucid, and they're prioritizing delivery to regions where they have mobile service & service center already set up (or being setup). Makes sense to me."

 

[Dortreo]

That is not surprising. Back in February Lucid announced 8000 reservations representing about $700M in sales. That equates to about $87k per car. If one subtracts out the 500 Dreams, it equates to 7500 reservations on the other 3 trims at $82k per car. Since the Pure is $77K before any rebates, nearly all the reservations at the February reporting were Air Pure Trims. To put it another way, for every Touring, there is 1 Pure reservation. For every AGT, there are about 5 Pure reservations.

Lucid Motors Now Has 11,000 Vehicle Reservations | The Motley Fool

The nascent electric vehicle (EV) maker continues to garner vehicle reservations and consumer interest.

www.fool.com

"13,000 reservations in Q3 for estimated order book of greater than $1.3B."

If it was 8000 reservations for $700M in sales in February, that means that the incremental reservations of 5,000 reservations through end of Q3 represent $600M in sales for an average of $120K per sale. This would suggest that sales are skewing heavily toward Grand Tourings at the expense of Tourings and especially Pures.

If you use the estimate from June of 10,000 reservations and $900M in orders, this means that from June to September, 3000 reservations and $400M in sales have been added at an average transaction of $133K per sale. This means that the overwhelming number of new reservations (at least 2500 of 3000) added during this time must have been Grand Tourings. Which means it might be a while before I see my car.

 

[Sandvinsd]

There was a question on the conference call about the mix and the reply was that they were pleased to have a “healthy mix” between the trims

 

[Dortreo]

There was a question on the conference call about the mix and the reply was that they were pleased to have a “healthy mix” between the trims

All AGTs would be the very definition of ruddy good health. Any insight into deliveries and production targets? There was nothing in the investor materials. Lots of pretty pictures though really they should think about using other Instagram filters besides the one that turns everything gold.

 

[Sandvinsd]

Nothing new on deliveries and production - reiterating 20k cars next year with a caveat that supply chain issues could affect it.

 

[dawktah LucidGT]

"13,000 reservations in Q3 for estimated order book of greater than $1.3B."

If it was 8000 reservations for $700M in sales in February, that means that the incremental reservations of 5,000 reservations through end of Q3 represent $600M in sales for an average of $120K per sale. This would suggest that sales are skewing heavily toward Grand Tourings at the expense of Tourings and especially Pures.

If you use the estimate from June of 10,000 reservations and $900M in orders, this means that from June to September, 3000 reservations and $400M in sales have been added at an average transaction of $133K per sale. This means that the overwhelming number of new reservations (at least 2500 of 3000) added during this time must have been Grand Tourings. Which means it might be a while before I see my car.

Let's hope they let the batch mentality go soon. At some point being able to produce all trims at the same time. In order they received...

 

[Lucken]

"13,000 reservations in Q3 for estimated order book of greater than $1.3B."

If it was 8000 reservations for $700M in sales in February, that means that the incremental reservations of 5,000 reservations through end of Q3 represent $600M in sales for an average of $120K per sale. This would suggest that sales are skewing heavily toward Grand Tourings at the expense of Tourings and especially Pures.

If you use the estimate from June of 10,000 reservations and $900M in orders, this means that from June to September, 3000 reservations and $400M in sales have been added at an average transaction of $133K per sale. This means that the overwhelming number of new reservations (at least 2500 of 3000) added during this time must have been Grand Tourings. Which means it might be a while before I see my car.

This is why I conjectured in another thread that it’s unlikely I’ll have the patience to wait for my reserved Pure. Now with the MT Car Of The Year award under Lucid’s belt, there will be many more reservations for higher trims beyond the Pure. This will essentially result in these new reservations ‘jumping the line’ over current Pure reservation holders and delaying the introduction of the Pure even further.

Such is life. I’ve also got a BMW I4 advanced reservation and I suspect that will arrive mid 22.

 

[Dortreo]

This is why I conjectured in another thread that it’s unlikely I’ll have the patience to wait for my reserved Pure. Now with the MT Car Of The Year award under Lucid’s belt, there will be many more reservations for higher trims beyond the Pure. This will essentially result in these new reservations ‘jumping the line’ over current Pure reservation holders and delaying the introduction of the Pure even further.

Such is life. I’ve also got a BMW I4 advanced reservation and I suspect that will arrive mid 22.

For what it's worth, I spoke with my BMW dealer today. I reserved a BMW iX at the beginning of October and have a production slot at the end of March/beginning of April, so anticipate delivery by June or July. I'm still debating that vs. a Lucid Air GT.

 

[WildRide47]

For what it's worth, I spoke with my BMW dealer today. I reserved a BMW iX at the beginning of October and have a production slot at the end of March/beginning of April, so anticipate delivery by June or July. I'm still debating that vs. a Lucid Air GT.

Lucken ordered the BMW i-4, not the BMW iX. I also put down a deposit for the i-4 in addition to the Lucid GT. The i-4's are all sold out through July, so he can expect his and my order to be delivered in August or afterwards.

 

[Dortreo]

Lucken ordered the BMW i-4, not the BMW iX. I also put down a deposit for the i-4 in addition to the Lucid GT. The i-4's are all sold out through July, so he can expect his and my order to be delivered in August or afterwards.

Yeah, I realize it's not quite equivalent, but BMW at least is forthcoming with production schedules. My order was supposed to arrive after June, as I missed the initial iX orders, but a predictable July ain't bad for an October order. I still prefer the Lucid though.

 

[Neurio]

Rawlinson did say on the call that all trims would be produced by the end of 2022. Not that that means much as this point given supply chain issues, etc.