2nd qtr results link with Q and A

[lucidcapitalist]

The ship has a big hole. Peter refuses to answer what is your best run rate. Estimates drop again in half down to 6k/7k cars in 2022. They fired the previous exec and now things look bad. Why can't they ramp up and make cars in a plant they are already expanding to AMP2? They will have to go from 7k cars in 2022 to 40k/50k cars in 2023...a 6x to 7x increase?

I was a big believer in 2023 and their ability to get all the reservations out in 2023, but after this call I doubt they can unless they get more cash to fund. They are at a critical point and I hope it works, but they might be looking to get acquired by a larger company. The market is run QTR by QTR and your stock price is everything.

Will they figure it out?

The market may run Qtr to Qtr, but a company must plan for longer and must not be driven by Q to Q stock price.

 

[Drendino]

No doubt, every time he opens his mouth about Lucid, he reveals he's actually a little worried.

When all the mainstream auto manufacturers started introducing EVs, all he had to say was that he'd always wanted to drive everyone to make more EVs. But then Lucid comes in and embarrasses him on efficiency and range, he tries to counter with a longer-range S and fails, and ever since he takes jabs at them whenever he can. The guy is not hard to read.

On the surface, I agree that it looks like that. However, I don’t think he is particularly worried about Lucid and gets a certain satisfaction from watching others experience “production hell”. In business, sports and life many people get a sick satisfaction over watching rivals fail. It’s bad if my NY

I can’t see Lucid, Rivian, and Tesla starting to go down in market share anytime this decade (short of bankruptcy at least). It is the existing automakers, with a very few exceptions, that are seeing, and will continue to see their market share drop, losing sales to the new companies (which also include BYD and Nio). Ford and GM sales, as an example, have been declining since 2016… at this point down almost 40% from those peaks.

Looking at EV market share in isolation is fairly irrelevant- EVs are now competing with all cars regardless of propulsion system, so the market is all cars.

I agree. If Canoo (goev) can stay alive, then Lucid and Rivian will be just fine. Canoo hasn’t even sold a vehicle and has a controversial body shape, yet they still just made a deal with Walmart to sell them vehicles. I though for sure that they would be bankrupt by now.

 

[Pwmac]

In these situations the staff on the frontline typically know that things are a hot mess and most times its a result of bad management. Those people typically don't get access to the CEO so The CEO showing up whilst never a good look can actually be a morale booster to those staff that are passionate to see the company succeed and that he might actually do something beneficial by being onsite to steer the ship right.

Clearly, he saw issues and has decided to change things up but it's probably something that should have been done before the Q1 earnings. They had around 6 months of production behind them and got out very minimal cars.

I completely agree with you and believe it relates to Peter Drucker's concept of a knowledge worker. I think most organizations focus on top down communication and don't take the time to build an upward communication channel or if they do it's usually just a survey conducted fairly infrequently. I think being able to collect and leverage that knowledge on a consistent basis to help guide decisions would make an organization more nimble but I don't link a lot of organizations make it a priority.

 

[limtless]

The market may run Qtr to Qtr, but a company must plan for longer and must not be driven by Q to Q stock price.

That's exactly what I said in my second post....Short-term vision and hope is not a strategy Lucid should be having. If they don't make enough cars, how do they make money and pay bills?

 

[TCGT]

From only a reading of the transcript my takeaway is that Peter is feeling the heat for the poor ramp up, and there is a lot of hand waving. They did the right thing - albeit a bit late - in getting some experienced production logistics experts in, but I think will be playing catch up on their reputation for awhile. Unless they’re really stupid the revised guidance is there to exceed not meet.