2021 Q4 earnings report

[Yugi]

Summary
- Production exceeds 400 vehicles as of February 28, 2022, with 125 customer deliveries as of year-end 2021 and over 300 deliveries to date
- Updating 2022 production outlook for Lucid Air to a range of 12,000 to 14,000 vehicles
- Customer reservations now exceed 25,000, reflecting potential sales of more than $2.4B

Revenue: $26.4M, est: $3.6M
EPS: -$0.64, est: -$11.11

What are your thoughts?

 

[Codyroo]

Wall Street (after hours) didn't like it. Up 10% today, down 14% in after hours trading.
Disappointed to see the drop in the number of vehicles produced, but, if this is the reality, so be it......
I wonder what the successful reservation rate would be (ie how many people who reserved a vehicle will still purchase when given a chance). Just listing a potential of $2.4 Billion is silly because it would seem unreasonable to assume that big a success rate.

 

[AGTRAIN]

The optimist inside of me is struggling to find much to be excited about. The reservations of 25k is the most encouraging sign but it’ll take them 18 months to make that many so have to believe many will back out. Hope I’m wrong. I could benefit from a history lesson on Tesla…does anyone know what their first year was like? I bought my first Model S in 2017 so they were veterans by then. Heaven knows Lucid has more than their share of headwinds right now (supply chain, recall, software) but I do agree that momentum breeds excitement and brand awareness so still too early to judge. They’re going to need a lot of grit to succeed. I’m still pulling hard for them.

 

[hydbob]

I think the best thing Lucid has going for itself now is that it's the new kid on the block and nothing else looks like it. People are tired of Teslas and Mercedes and BMW don't cut it on styling anymore. Porsche is interesting but I still think the Air looks better than a Taycan.

 

[CLTGT]

Not sure how many will back out, but getting any type of new luxury car right now is likely to involve a wait. I just looked at my local BMW dealer and they have less than 30 new cars on the lot when they usually have over 350. My rep there told me that most people are just ordering what they want and waiting. The supply chain problems have not totally caught up yet, so buying a car has reverted back to what it was in the 60's with most people ordering what they want. Difference now if that it takes much longer to get what you order, not even taking into consideration shipping from overseas.

 

[hydbob]

True, all the same people crapping on Lucid for production hell are the same people who are okay waiting a year for their Tesla order to deliver.

 

[HC_79]

One positive from this is that Q1 earnings was effectively bundled into this Q4 call so the share price shouldn't tank further than it already is come the Q1 earnings call. financials aside, they released key information on where they stand in Q1

300+ deliveries in total (Q4 included)
25,000 reservations as of yesterday
Supply Chain constraints

They've effectively brought themselves time until Q2 earnings call to show improvement.

 

[hydbob]

and the $6 billion? in cash they have...

 

[Grnr92663]

The AlfaRomeo dealer near my house (which also sells a lot of exotic Italian cars - from Buggati to 480...) just closed its door. It has no car to sell. The inventory went from having 100s cars down to teen and now to none. My wife's friend is an accountant there and she said there are no words from the manufacturer as to when they would start delivering cars again - most cars are 99% completed but need some parts.

Lucid just face the same problem as all other manufacturers out there. This too shall pass.

I do some investment for a living, and one thing is clear: no shortage (or surplus) problem is chronic - capital flow will balance things out. FYI, oil was at -40$/barrel (yes, negative) on this day two years ago, and lumber price dropped 60-70% compared to 9 months ago.

 

[AGTRAIN]

Good perspective. FWIW I’m keeping my AGT reservation, will wait for a test drive and plan to move forward. Just have to be more patient. The product is superb by nearly all accounts and that usually wins out. Last thought— how many times have we read “if you had invested $10,000 in XYZ company in 20xx it would be worth 6 figures today?” Microsoft, Apple, Tesla, etc. Lucid has a long way to go but it could be a similar story some years from now.

 

[jdeckard]

I had one of the model S Signatures, so #704, and this feels a bit like deja vu. However, in my opinion, Lucid had fewer actual production delays to when they said that they would first deliver (i think I might have been almost 2 years in line for Tesla - and they are having frequent upgrades to improve little issues. Lucid is going to face faster and more fierce competition than did Tesla as it readied the market for EV's, but a market that is more ready to accept EV's along with that competition. A few more glitches in my Lucid, but chalking it up to start-up issues. The interior luxury beats Tesla by far, and, IMO, so does the body style. Tesla feels ahead on technology, but Lucid above where Tesla was at start-up; and the good news is the only thing in those 3 categories that can be easily changed and upgraded is the technology, so I am still all-in on Lucid - as a driver and an investor! Tesla was losing more money in its first 500 cars than is Lucid.

 

[JayZee#293]

The optimist inside of me is struggling to find much to be excited about. The reservations of 25k is the most encouraging sign but it’ll take them 18 months to make that many so have to believe many will back out. Hope I’m wrong. I could benefit from a history lesson on Tesla…does anyone know what their first year was like? I bought my first Model S in 2017 so they were veterans by then. Heaven knows Lucid has more than their share of headwinds right now (supply chain, recall, software) but I do agree that momentum breeds excitement and brand awareness so still too early to judge. They’re going to need a lot of grit to succeed. I’m still pulling hard for them.

So if some back out then others will take their spot. There is no waitlist so people will just move up and fill the schedule. The needy buyers will move on. Once more realize the quality product being produced they will keep buying.

 

[HC_79]

The biggest threat I see to Lucid at the moment is Mercedes and moreover people still don't know who Lucid is. We can all argue about the look of it but but from a tech \ efficiency standpoint it's close and cheaper. The 70mph real world test is in and got 450+ miles on a 107Kw (103 usable) battery and charges from 0 to 100 in 40 mins on 400v architecture and Mercedes managed to get 470 of them out last year. With the EQE promising to go further on a 90Kw usable battery and starting in the high $60's Lucid needs to get moving and fast. This space they're playing in isn't mass market users so the slower they are to produce the risk they run is they will miss out.

I also think the car has a pricing problem, especially the Pure. At that level of pricing to be missing sunroof, seat massagers, full set of driving features etc. when its competitors are offering it all for same or lower pricing it's a tough sell to try and make people switch. I hope i'm wrong.

 

[ElCid]

The key thing that is always forgotten when people compare the Lucid to other luxury sedans is that Lucid is the only one that will offer the capability to back-up your home (during a power outage) thanks to the 19.2kW onboard charger and the big batteries. And not just a few small appliances (not an AC unit) like the Kia EV6…That’s a major differentiator. In Florida, I’d pay $30+K to get a generator installed to back up my house If I lose power after a hurricane.

 

[SaratogaLefty]

The biggest threat I see to Lucid at the moment is Mercedes and moreover people still don't know who Lucid is. We can all argue about the look of it but but from a tech \ efficiency standpoint it's close and cheaper. The 70mph real world test is in and got 450+ miles on a 107Kw (103 usable) battery and charges from 0 to 100 in 40 mins on 400v architecture and Mercedes managed to get 470 of them out last year. With the EQE promising to go further on a 90Kw usable battery and starting in the high $60's Lucid needs to get moving and fast. This space they're playing in isn't mass market users so the slower they are to produce the risk they run is they will miss out.

I also think the car has a pricing problem, especially the Pure. At that level of pricing to be missing sunroof, seat massagers, full set of driving features etc. when its competitors are offering it all for same or lower pricing it's a tough sell to try and make people switch. I hope i'm wrong.

Where did you see the 450+ miles of range for the EQS? The Edmunds test was 350 miles for the EQS 450 and 340 miles for the EQS 580. I can't find anything about 450 miles?

 

[RichMalden]

Where did you see the 450+ miles of range for the EQS? The Edmunds test was 350 miles for the EQS 450 and 340 miles for the EQS 580. I can't find anything about 450 miles?

It is an EQ E not S. Not in production yet but it is supposed to be their long range vehicle

 

[HC_79]

Where did you see the 450+ miles of range for the EQS? The Edmunds test was 350 miles for the EQS 450 and 340 miles for the EQS 580. I can't find anything about 450 miles?

Well, I'll be the first to say "I'm an idiot". I saw the header on YouTube before watching and the 450+ was referring to the model. It got 344 miles so just completely ignore what I said people, i'll go back into my box

For those who are interested......

 

[hydbob]

Well, I'll be the first to say "I'm an idiot". I saw the header on YouTube before watching and the 450+ was referring to the model. It got 344 miles so just completely ignore what I said people, i'll go back into my box

For those who are interested......

Wow 108 kwh and it got 344 miles. 156 miles LESS than the Lucid. 3.18 mi/kwh vs 4.23 mi/kwh for a whopping 33% difference...yikes! And I'm assuming the 580 will be even less because it's dual motor. Bravo Lucid!

 

[SaratogaLefty]

Ok 340 miles. RWD only. Not overly impressed.

 

[HC_79]

Ok 340 miles. RWD only. Not overly impressed.

It was on 21" wheels and snow tires so that's going to have an impact.