LCID 2021 Q4 Earnings

[HC_79]

Currently Lucid is going to have a factory that produces 90,000 cars by year end when the current factory can handle the 14,000 to 16,000 this year and deal with the 25,000 reservations they currently have as it can produce 34,000 cars. Seems they've overestimated the popularity of the car

 

[Sandvinsd]

Currently Lucid is going to have a factory that produces 90,000 cars by year end when the current factory can handle the 14,000 to 16,000 this year and deal with the 25,000 reservations they currently have as it can produce 34,000 cars. Seems they've overestimated the popularity of the car

Might have been a mistake to advance both Phase 2 and 3 expansion. Will become capital constrained very soon. They need to get cars on the road and start producing the Pure. When people see them around, the popularity will increase.

 

[Neurio]

They're planning for the future with Gravity and future,c cheaper cars. Pretty sure there's a 3rd expansion planned already too.

 

[Sandvinsd]

The stock came up for a consolidation and rolled over again in the after hours trading. I think it will continue to drop as people digest these numbers.

 

[Sandvinsd]

They're planning for the future with Gravity and future,c cheaper cars. Pretty sure there's a 3rd expansion planned already too.

Yes. But they need to get some sales to have at least a little cash flow. 125 deliveries in Q4 nd 175 deliveries is not going to cut it. They are only delivering about 20-25 cars per week. And that is ramped up from Q4 which was 10-15 per week.

 

[HC_79]

Yes. But they need to get some sales to have at least a little cash flow. 125 deliveries in Q4 nd 175 deliveries is not going to cut it. They are only delivering about 20-25 cars per week. And that is ramped up from Q4 which was 10-15 per week.

Exactly, with the announcement of building the factory in Saudi Arabia it just seems money is being wasted in the wrong areas. They've got 25,000 reservations in total and the plant can sustain that deliverable easily. If they can't get the Air moving then they will just push the Gravity back which didn't even seem to get a mention.

The presentation is pretty much the same as last November with no real major changes. With Mercedes, Audi, BMW all releasing EV's with 400+ mileage in the next 12 months to 18 months and a well seasoned manufacturing machine, Lucid could be facing an uphill battle in the Luxury space. They're priced higher and no one seems to know who they are. I just question what on earth management has been doing. The car was delayed and they couldn't even get 500 cars made without realizing there were quality issues on the parts??? This wasn't discovered in the pre-production models?

For someone who has been spouting off that they're going to do it better than Tesla this is just an embarrassment.

 

[Dortreo]

With 10 months left, they new to produce 290 cars per week to reach 12,000 cars. (approx.) That's over 50% of what they've produced TO DATE.

At a capacity of 34000 cars per year, the factory should be able to product 650 cars per week assuming that all goes well with parts supply, hiring, and expansion plans. That's a lot of "if's." Unfortunately, the lowered production guidance means that Lucid no longer thinks that the factory will hit its stride in production until much later in the year than initially planned. We probably won't see sizable production numbers (~250+ cars per week) from the factory until July/August. Hopefully, they'll be at full production capacity by the end of the year.

Agree. Also in a back of the envelope calculation, the number of GTs reserved is about 2.5 the number of Pures. How many? Depends on the number of the Tourings. The aveage selling price is about what a Touring costs. If the ratio of GT:T : P is 1 : 2 : 2.5, then there are roughly 4500 GT reservations. If the Gts are in the same numbers as the Pures, then there are only about 4000 AGTs.

I think your calculation on Air GT numbers is ballpark correct. If that is the case, I don't believe Lucid will be done producing Air GTs until Aug/Sep. It's unclear, of course, how Lucid will handle model prioritization, but my guess is profits will matter even more, as the company will become cash-constrained even faster now. So, as many Air GTs as possible before turning to Tourings would be my guess.

 

[manitou202]

The car was delayed and they couldn't even get 500 cars made without realizing there were quality issues on the parts??? This wasn't discovered in the pre-production models?

This is extremely common. I'm dealing with this exact situation right now launching a new product. Supplier sends one batch of parts for the first pilot build that work great, and then another batch of parts for the next build that have problems. Depending on the manufacturing process, there are so many variables that could end up creating different issues from batch to batch. It's the nature of a product launch.

If it's glass which is one of the rumors, just look at all of the glass issues Tesla has had. They chose to deliver poor quality glass to customers, and relied on customers to complain and then replace them in the field.

 

[Neurio]

Gravity production pushed back to 1st half of 2024. Hmm...

 

[HC_79]

Gravity production pushed back to 1st half of 2024. Hmm...

Not surprising. Which means they're going to have this big ass factory sitting around doing nothing.

 

[Dortreo]

Exactly, with the announcement of building the factory in Saudi Arabia it just seems money is being wasted in the wrong areas. They've got 25,000 reservations in total and the plant can sustain that deliverable easily. If they can't get the Air moving then they will just push the Gravity back which didn't even seem to get a mention.

The presentation is pretty much the same as last November with no real major changes. With Mercedes, Audi, BMW all releasing EV's with 400+ mileage in the next 12 months to 18 months and a well seasoned manufacturing machine, Lucid could be facing an uphill battle in the Luxury space. They're priced higher and no one seems to know who they are. I just question what on earth management has been doing. The car was delayed and they couldn't even get 500 cars made without realizing there were quality issues on the parts??? This wasn't discovered in the pre-production models?

For someone who has been spouting off that they're going to do it better than Tesla this is just an embarrassment.

I'm inclined to cut Lucid management a break here. They're a brand new company with a highly advanced product that has to be as high quality as possible. However, they clearly are facing a very uphill battle, and time is not on their side.

If the quality issue concerns the glass per CNBC, Lucid cannot afford to have 500 pieces of them sitting around on the factory floor. And I'm guessing that the chance for a single defect ruining the entire canopy means that the rate of delivery on that part was nowhere near what they needed. But hey, it really ties the car together.

As for doing things better than Tesla, I believe that Lucid means that they intend to produce a better quality product, not produce more product. To do the latter, you have to be willing to construct cars in tents and use water soluble glue on bumpers.

Let's pose a hypothetical: A company has a choice between delivering car with a glass canopy with a visible defect and making their production numbers or delivering a perfect glass canopy and missing their production numbers.

Which choice would Lucid make? Which would Tesla?

 

[hydbob]

I'm inclined to cut Lucid management a break here. They're a brand new company with a highly advanced product that has to be as high quality as possible. However, they clearly are facing a very uphill battle, and time is not on their side.

If the quality issue concerns the glass per CNBC, Lucid cannot afford to have 500 pieces of them sitting around on the factory floor. And I'm guessing that the chance for a single defect ruining the entire canopy means that the rate of delivery on that part was nowhere near what they needed. But hey, it really ties the car together.

As for doing things better than Tesla, let's pose a hypothetical:

A company has a choice between delivering car with a glass canopy with a visible defect and making their production numbers or delivering a perfect glass canopy and missing their production numbers.

Which choice would Lucid make? Which would Tesla?

It was always going to be an uphill battle, throw in a 2 year pandemic, chip shortage, labor shortage, supply chain issues, and now a war...good luck to any company trying to deliver a new product and develop new relationships with suppliers.

 

[Neurio]

Peter did say they were having issues with glass and carpet. Glass could be a side window; it may not be the canopy, but who knows.

 

[Sandvinsd]

Carpet may be the Santa Monica version which is unique to the Dreams. That might be why the GTs are being delivered before all Dreams

 

[Sandvinsd]

GT reservations > Touring.

Implies 5500 GTs and Ts with about 13500 Pure

 

[Neurio]

And still planning to start Pure later this year

 

[Dortreo]

Orders will rise from 17,000 to 30,000.
Delivered Dreams will be 750. Dream Editions are still coming out the factory door because Lucid is overwhelmed by Dream orders and decided to deliver more of this high margin item.
Grand Touring deliveries are delayed so they can pump out more of the Dream Editions because demand is so high.
Stock is back up to $55 as everyone is surprised by the news.
You heard it here first.

What happened to the 750 delivered DEs? Maybe they went to Saudi?

 

[Neurio]

Peter, paraphrased: "Because the interest and demand for the Dream was so high, we're looking at how to manage the high end trims"

Tri motor anyone?

 

[HC_79]

Peter, paraphrased: "Because the interest and demand for the Dream was so high, we're looking at how to manage the high end trims"

Tri motor anyone?

How about he go to the local carpet store and ask for some rolls to deliver the cars he's got sitting on the lot before looking at doing another trim

 

[MidwestLucidDude]

Anyone dialing into the Q4 earnings call this afternoon/evening? If so, please post your impressions and thoughts. I'm curious what questions if any they will address.

There was one moment that I found disturbing because I feel the Lucid team is not being completely honest. The emphasized several times that the supply chain issues are in commodity parts such as floor mats and window glass. Fair enough. But one analyst asked when they would be done with Dream Editions and start delivering the Grand Touring. Rawlinson said that they are already delivering Grand Touring, but the rest of the Dream Editions are waiting on parts. Is the floor mat or glass different from the two models? I don't think you can have it both ways. Perhaps it is the wheels, or the motors that is causing the issue. Wheels I guess would be a commodity, but the motor is not what I'd call a commodity part. Sounded fishy to me.