Interview with Peter at InsideEV - 180 mile EVs are the future

[momo3605]

Anyone want to help explain the concept of how 180 mile EVs are the answer to the future of EVs. Im having trouble wrapping my head around it.

https://insideevs.com/news/750380/lucid-ceo-midsize-range-miles/

I feel like this recipe has already been tried. The second gen Leaf offered 160 miles for $25k. The Chey Bolt offered 259 miles of range for $26k. Im also wondering where he's getting numbers like $25k for battery packs. If the Bolt costs $26k and has a 60kwh battery pack, im sure the costs are much lower.

And LASTLY, if costs ever do drop to $2500 for a 40kwh battery pack with 180 miles of range, why wouldn't people pay $1000 more for a 60kwh pack? Or $2000 more for an 80kwh pack. The cheaper battery packs get, i think the argument for large packs becomes more and more valuable.

Anyway, it was an interesting interview...curious to hear other thoughts.

 

[DBV]

If that was the future, I would be done with EV’s and stick with ICE. That would be a huge turnoff for most Americans, who already are having trouble migrating to EV’s. No way would 180 miles cut it the way I travel.

 

[marsarbu]

My once-a-week commute is 260 miles (130 one way), which translated to Lucid's real "consumption" is like 300 miles. I would be fine with the 180 (real) range, if 80% of the parking lots in US would have chargers that work and are available when I need them.

 

[segbrk]

Yeah, the Leaf tried that... and is still extremely popular because of it. Especially in the preowned market, because 25k is still more than most people pay for a car. The median American's daily driving distance is less than 100 miles. Even most people who "road trip" for vacation don't go much more than 100 miles from home. I think the only reason your standard Corollas and Focuses have multiples of that range is due to the inconvenience of going to a gas station, not because people actually need that in a day. If people can charge a small battery at home, a 180 mile EV is perfect. I suspect Peter is counting on that market expanding as more apartments add some overnight charging capacity.

And LASTLY, if costs ever do drop to $2500 for a 40kwh battery pack with 180 miles of range, why wouldn't people pay $1000 more for a 60kwh pack? Or $2000 more for an 80kwh pack. The cheaper battery packs get, i think the argument for large packs becomes more and more valuable.

I think that's just out of touch with the mass market. "just $1000 more, why not?" does not compute for the median American.

If that was the future, I would be done with EV’s and stick with ICE. That would be a huge turnoff for most Americans, who already are having trouble migrating to EV’s. No way would 180 miles cut it the way I travel.

No one is saying the 180 mile EV is the only future for EVs. It's the mass appeal future. There will always be "Grand Touring" type vehicles for serious distances, it's just a more niche thing that not everybody needs to pay for.

 

[momo3605]

I think that's just out of touch with the mass market. "just $1000 more, why not?" does not compute for the median American.

I mean it’s relative right? Cars probably won’t ever go below 20-25k in our lifetime. If the difference between $25k and $26k means having a one-car solution vs being a second car for around town commuting. But oh if you need to go more than 90 miles one way you need to rent a car or have a second car in case? That $1000 is nothing compared to the depreciation, insurance, registration for owning a second car.

Maybe he’s describing a utopia where people only buy and consume what they need. as we know though people don’t behave this way though. If the marginal cost to get 300 miles is available for a small amount of money, I think people would prefer that

 

[marsarbu]

Also, battery technology and price will continue to go down, to the point where the price & weight & size difference between 180 and 300 might be insignificant. Not unlike how a computer hard drive of 800 Mb from 1996 was the same size, weight and price as a 8,000,000 Mb these days.

 

[momo3605]

Also, battery technology and price will continue to go down, to the point where the price & weight & size difference between 180 and 300 might be insignificant. Not unlike how a computer hard drive of 800 Mb from 1996 was the same size, weight and price as a 8,000,000 Mb these days.

For some reason I thought the original plan for Lucid was to keep high range the differentiating factor and reduce the battery size and cost as technology improves. Like we got the 88kwh Pure with 400 EPA range at 5.0 miles/kw. The next step going to 6 miles/kw.

Just seems odd that the company known for the longest range EVs thinks that short range golf carts are the answer

 

[segbrk]

For some reason I thought the original plan for Lucid was to keep high range the differentiating factor and reduce the battery size and cost as technology improves. Like we got the 88kwh Pure with 400 EPA range at 5.0 miles/kw. The next step going to 6 miles/kw.

Just seems odd that the company known for the longest range EVs thinks that short range golf carts are the answer

That has never been the message though? It's always been a focus on efficiency first, with range as a byproduct. You get efficiency up, then you shrink the battery. Balance.
Also note Peter isn't even saying "Lucid is going to make a 180 mile EV." There's certainly no way this is what you should expect from Midsize. Peter has repeatedly said that Lucid might never even make a sub-25k car, but hopes to license the "world's most efficient EV tech" to other companies, enabling them to make cheap, low-power or low-range EVs.

 

[joec]

Yeah, the Leaf tried that... and is still extremely popular because of it. Especially in the preowned market, because 25k is still more than most people pay for a car. The median American's daily driving distance is less than 100 miles. Even most people who "road trip" for vacation don't go much more than 100 miles from home. I think the only reason your standard Corollas and Focuses have multiples of that range is due to the inconvenience of going to a gas station, not because people actually need that in a day. If people can charge a small battery at home, a 180 mile EV is perfect. I suspect Peter is counting on that market expanding as more apartments add some overnight charging capacity.


I think that's just out of touch with the mass market. "just $1000 more, why not?" does not compute for the median American.


No one is saying the 180 mile EV is the only future for EVs. It's the mass appeal future. There will always be "Grand Touring" type vehicles for serious distances, it's just a more niche thing that not everybody needs to pay for.

This. 100x this. The statistics don't lie. The vast majority of Americans drive far less than 180 miles at a stretch. Ever. And the majority of families have more than one car.

Range anxiety has always been irrational for most people. Not all of us, obviously. And certainly not most of the people here.

We keep making assumptions based on our own needs. We're car enthusiasts and EV nerds. 400-500 mile range EVs will remain available for us. For everyone else, 180 miles will be plenty.

And yes, I'm quite sure all those cars with 180-mile packs will be available with upgraded 250 or 300 mile packs. If you have the need, or the money to buy more peace of mind, go for it.

If this gets us to a place where EVs are finally not seen as cars for only the wealthy, I'm all for it.

If it also makes a lightweight weekend roadster more practical to manufacture, sign me up.

The goal is more options to expand the market.

 

[BACamster]

If that was the future, I would be done with EV’s and stick with ICE. That would be a huge turnoff for most Americans, who already are having trouble migrating to EV’s. No way would 180 miles cut it the way I travel.

Look at this from a big picture perspective. If battery technology gets more efficient and power dense, you will need smaller battery thus saving money. Lucid already make efficient motors. And If charging infrastructure is proliferated to a point, let's say 1/4 of a typical parking every garage/parking lot is cover with level-2 charger, 180 miles EV low cost EVs make sense to a lot of people.

My Subaru gets 240 miles on a full tank of gas, 69 miles less than my AT at 80% SOC. I'm not worry about going anywhere with my Subaru because gas stations are everywhere. "Once charging infrastructure is abundant and reliable enough, drivers will get used to juicing up whenever they’re parked, he said. And once you can plug in anywhere at any time, you don’t need hundreds of miles of extra range as a buffer." as stated in the article.

 

[momo3605]

Look at this from a big picture perspective. If battery technology gets more efficient and power dense, you will need smaller battery thus saving money. Lucid already make efficient motors. And If charging infrastructure is proliferated to a point, let's say 1/4 of a typical parking every garage/parking lot is cover with level-2 charger, 180 miles EV low cost EVs make sense to a lot of people.

My Subaru gets 240 miles on a full tank of gas, 69 miles less than my AT at 80% SOC. I'm not worry about going anywhere with my Subaru because gas stations are everywhere. "Once charging infrastructure is abundant and reliable enough, drivers will get used to juicing up whenever they’re parked, he said. And once you can plug in anywhere at any time, you don’t need hundreds of miles of extra range as a buffer." as stated in the article.

What is “low cost” though? If efficiency increases and battery size decreases, that means the cost to put 300 miles or 180 miles becomes small too. Why would anyone limit themselves for no reason? There’s a reason why ICE cars average around 250-300 miles of range. That’s just what sells. 180 mile ICE cars wouldn’t sell either.

 

[segbrk]

There’s a reason why ICE cars average around 250-300 miles of range. That’s just what sells.

Like I said above, I believe that reason is because nobody wants to stop at a gas station every day on their way to work. Not because they're worried about driving 250-300 miles straight.

Edit: That said, will the average buyer understand this? Probably not, or they wouldn't have the pre-range-anxiety they already have.

 

[momo3605]

Like I said above, I believe that reason is because nobody wants to stop at a gas station every day on their way to work. Not because they're worried about driving 250-300 miles straight.

Yea that's a fair point. I still think people would rather future proof themselves for a negligible amount of money. America is the land of excess and Hummers and Suburbans. We have to change our culture. I can see 180 mile EVs working in Europe maybe. People seem much happier with smaller, cheaper things there.

 

[marsarbu]

Yea that's a fair point. I still think people would rather future proof themselves for a negligible amount of money. America is the land of excess and Hummers and Suburbans. We have to change our culture. I can see 180 mile low-cost EVs working in Europe maybe. People seem much happier with smaller, cheaper things there.

That's because the gas is expensive as hell and the roads are 3 feet wide. Otherwise everyone would drive Suburbans

I never heard an European saying "that car is too big for me". They say "that car is too big for our roads".

 

[BS8899]

Yea that's a fair point. I still think people would rather future proof themselves for a negligible amount of money. America is the land of excess and Hummers and Suburbans. We have to change our culture. I can see 180 mile EVs working in Europe maybe. People seem much happier with smaller, cheaper things there.

keep in mind that if a medium size car (less than 3,000lb) can go 180miles (real miles) on a full charge with a relatively small battery (e.g.,, 7+miles/kWh efficiency, 25-30kW battery), you can easily recharge every night at home with 120V or 220V. You don't have to go to a DCFC station at all, unless you don't have a garage and you park on the street. Once you make the cars smaller and lighter, efficiency goes up, weight comes down, battery size goes down.

 

[momo3605]

unless you don't have a garage and you park on the street.

I think this is the big issue that bars many people from being able to go EV.

keep in mind that if a medium size car (less than 3,000lb) can go 180miles (real miles) on a full charge with a relatively small battery (e.g.,, 7+miles/kWh efficiency, 25-30kW battery), you can easily recharge every night at home with 120V or 220V.

I don't disagree. We've lived through the era of 100-200 mile cheap EVs with 25-40kwh batteries that can be charged overnight and it did not pan out. And if you have a garage to charge overnight. You can easily charge even a 100kwh battery overnight. Once 250+ range EVs came out, all the 25kwh toaster EVs went to the junkyard

 

[BS8899]

I think this is the big issue that bars many people from being able to go EV.



I don't disagree. We've lived through the era of 100-200 mile cheap EVs with 25-40kwh batteries that can be charged overnight and it did not pan out. And if you have a garage to charge overnight. You can easily charge even a 100kwh battery overnight. Once 250+ range EVs came out, all the 25kwh toaster EVs went to the junkyard

Yes, there are a lot of people charging at DCFC because they don't have a garage.

You will be surprised how many Uber/Lyft drivers use EVs, have free charging for a period of time, and live in apartments. I made it a habit to go talk to people charging (waiting) at DCFCs I was surprised and amazed that many are Uber/Lyft drivers living in apartment buildings. But when you stop and think about it, it makes good sense....You buy an EV, you get a period of free charging, you do Uber/Lyft, you don't have to pay for fuel. It makes perfect economic sense!

 

[momo3605]

Yes, there are a lot of people charging at DCFC because they don't have a garage.

You will be surprised how many Uber/Lyft drivers use EVs, have free charging for a period of time, and live in apartments. I made it a habit to go talk to people charging (waiting) at DCFCs I was surprised and amazed that many are Uber/Lyft drivers living in apartment buildings. But when you stop and think about it, it makes good sense....You buy an EV, you get a period of free charging, you do Uber/Lyft, you don't have to pay for fuel. It makes perfect economic sense!

lol yea. I see a lot of those cheap EV uber/lyft drivers as well. People will go well out of their way for free stuff!!

I do wonder if charging your bolt for 1 hour at 50kw saves you more than you lose by not driving for that hour

 

[sri]

I would leave it to Peter on what he thinks is best(No one wants to run into a failure). If customer feels that is best they buy it or Peter or the next CEO may change the tune. Simple

 

[BS8899]

lol yea. I see a lot of those cheap EV uber/lyft drivers as well. People will go well out of their way for free stuff!!

I do wonder if charging your bolt for 1 hour at 50kw saves you more than you lose by not driving for that hour

Charging a Bolt @50kW is a Zen exercise! Don't knock it until you've tried it!

Seriously, I see the Uber/Lyft drivers having their meals/naps while they are charging. For many, it is a second job to augment their income.