Q4 2022 Earnings Preview Article

[NoseyReporter]

He does admit that demand has dropped around 14:40 in the presentation.

 

[wklglider]

The scary thing is that they lost more reservations than they produced cars.

 

[MorganB]

I find it odd that while Lucid produced 3500 vehicles in Q4 they only estimate 10,000 to 14,000 vehicles produced in 2023. That implies that they expect zero gains in production efficiency in 2023. I wonder if they are under promising on purpose. The Air is their halo vehicle and the tech will trickle down over time but they are a long way off from a more modestly priced car or SUV. I am disappointed in the production forecast for 2023.

 

[joec]

The scary thing is that they lost more reservations than they produced cars.

Did they? This is the thing I can never figure out. When they say x reservations, that’s current, outstanding reservations, right? So every car delivered is a “lost” reservation, is it not?

 

[wklglider]

Did they? This is the thing I can never figure out. When they say x reservations, that’s current, outstanding reservations, right? So every car delivered is a “lost” reservation, is it not?

They lost 9,000(37,000-28,000) reservations from the last 2 quarters right? Did they deliver that many cars?

 

[NoseyReporter]

I find it odd that while Lucid produced 3500 vehicles in Q4 they only estimate 10,000 to 14,000 vehicles produced in 2023. That implies that they expect zero gains in production efficiency in 2023. I wonder if they are under promising on purpose. The Air is their halo vehicle and the tech will trickle down over time but they are a long way off from a more modestly priced car or SUV. I am disappointed in the production forecast for 2023.

Sandbagged number for sure, but it sounds like they are worried about demand getting softer and or supply chain issues.
CFO gives some rationale around the production numbers around the 32:00 mark of the presentation, but its kinda shaky at best.

 

[Drendino]

I was also disappointed in Peter’s presentation. He always does this. It’s supposed to be an earnings call. But it seems like h gives the same sales pitch such saying best technology, range, quality, efficiency etc. The audience at this type of meeting wants numbers, plans, why things happened, not marketing hype.

I think next quarter we should have a drinking game with, “efficiency, technology and range”. I had my money on supply chain this quarter, but as usual efficiency won.

 

[NoseyReporter]

4.9B only good until Q1 24.

 

[NoseyReporter]

I think batching is a more likely explanation than cancelations. They get five orders for a White GT with Tahoe interior. They do a run of 200. Because a run of 5 would be ridiculous.

That’s an extreme example. But you get the gist. Sooner or later, you end up with some leftover cars.

Also, remember, they were desperate at the end of last year to meet or beat 7,000 cars “produced.” The easiest way to achieve that by far was to produce more GTs, which they were already successfully making. Rather than switching over to Touring and Pure before they were ready.

Peter touches on this briefly. @ 40:30 He doesn't sound happy about making cars that don't match peoples orders. So perhaps the master scheduler was over zealous in how they batch specific configurations, which might explain the extra cars on the lot.

 

[Psymac]

They lost 9,000(37,000-28,000) reservations from the last 2 quarters right? Did they deliver that many cars?

I was one of the 9000, canceled my order and received my refund today. Given several competitors at a better price point I just don't see the value in Lucid.

 

[steveairgt]

I continue to be disappointed in Peter’s earnings call presentations. To me he is constantly in sales pitch mode. If brand awareness is the key issue, he should hire a marketing and communications team.

I love the car. But the stock will take years to go anywhere if it stays public.

 

[wklglider]

I was one of the 9000, canceled my order and received my refund today. Given several competitors at a better price point I just don't see the value in Lucid.

I'm going to do the same. It's a hard decision to make but I believe it's a right one.

 

[steveairgt]

in my opinion it’s the best car I’ve ever owned. Not even close to my 2 Teslas (S and X).

It’s a pleasure to drive.

Yes I have issues with the short term stock growth.

 

[Babyrocko1908]

Ok “a bunch”, I’ll agree with that but why are there over 2000 cars sitting in the AZ sun for several months now? I bet he can’t or won’t say “…. we had 2000 cancellations after the order was made…..” Maybe interest rates effected some buyers. When they made their order interest rates were in the 2s, now it’s in the 5s, etc. I would like more transparency.

But it's really the only explanation that makes financial sense. Why keep pushing out GT's if there's cancellations? Why keep pushing out that many GT's for the North American market when no one's ordering them? The North American market is waiting on Pures. Peter said on the call the Europe is getting Dreams and GT'S first. Those are the models primarily sitting in those lots. I'll wait to see if those cars start moving out starting in Q2.

 

[Babyrocko1908]

Peter was very clear in the Q&A that supply chain issues are no longer an issue. His reason for the lack of orders was lack of brand awareness, which he feels is solvable. We can debate all day if that’s really the reason for the reduced order book, but it was actually refreshing to hear a CEO stop hiding behind supply chain issues for a change.

Did we listen to the same call? He said numerous times there's still some supply chain issues particularly with stealth parts.

 

[wklglider]

in my opinion it’s the best car I’ve ever owned. Not even close to my 2 Teslas (S and X).

It’s a pleasure to drive.

Yes I have issues with the short term stock growth.

It's indeed a good car! I may revisit a Lucid store 5 years later(if they are still there), but I don’t regret the decision I made now.

 

[evdriver]

I recently test drove the AGT twice. Really, really like the car and am seriously considering getting it. I’d lie though if I said I wasn’t slightly concerned with putting that much money on a vehicle whose maker still has to prove its long term viability. The car is so well designed though!

 

[NewEnglander]

I recently test drove the AGT twice. Really, really like the car and am seriously considering getting it. I’d lie though if I said I wasn’t slightly concerned with putting that much money on a vehicle whose maker still has to prove its long term viability. The car is so well designed though!

Tesla did not make any money for a long time either. However, the markets wanted it to succeed. It was a pioneer. Lucid has a great power train that enables a very spacious and comfortable luxury car. Nothing else is close so fear of Lucid going under is a bit exaggerated.
Buy the car if you like it and don’t buy it if you find a better value for money with other brands if that’s what appeals to you. Hope this helps.

 

[wklglider]

Tesla did not make any money for a long time either. However, the markets wanted it to succeed. It was a pioneer. Lucid has a great power train that enables a very spacious and comfortable luxury car. Nothing else is close so fear of Lucid going under is a bit exaggerated.
Buy the car if you like it and don’t buy it if you find a better value for money with other brands if that’s what appeals to you. Hope this helps.

Tesla is run by Elon Musk who is a master social media influencer. Lucid is run by Peter Rawlinson who only knows efficiency but nothing else. Their only similarity is they both make EVs. That's it.

 

[Babyrocko1908]

Tesla is run by Elon Musk who is a master social media influencer. Lucid is run by Peter Rawlinson who only knows efficiency but nothing else. Their only similarity is they both make EVs. That's it.

And Tesla still didn't make a dime in their 1st year, or their 5th year. That's the point.