LCID 2021 Q4 Earnings

[hmp10]

Major investors, like the Saudis? That might explain why there may have been more than 520 made and observed.

The Saudis, the PIPE investors, people in Klein's shop . . . .

This would not mean Lucid is going beyond their "limited edition" marketing plan. It would simply mean those cars were within the original numbers planned.

 

[hydbob]

I'm also assuming the cars being placed all over the lot are in batches due to missing parts etc. The thing that amazes me though is how Lucid got so caught out on this. The car was delayed 6 months and they still couldn't manage to make sure they had the parts for 520 vehicles??? Or did they just store them in a warehouse and when going into production realized there was a quality issue with the parts then scrambled to order more.

Given the supply chain constraints you would have thought they would have ordered things well in advance to make sure they could hit the deliverables. Again, this was for 520 cars so if they screwed it up on that small number how can we trust that it's not entirely messed up for the mass produced cars and everything coming from Lucid is going to be at a snails pace.

All speculation of course, but Lucid not communicating doesn't help them at all.

What do you expect them to do? Name the specific part and burn their relationship with their supplier? Not a smart move.

 

[steveairgt]

The Saudis, the PIPE investors, people in Klein's shop . . . .

This would not mean Lucid is going beyond their "limited edition" marketing plan. It would simply mean those cars were within the original numbers planned.

The next time I’m traveling to Saudi Arabia and see a Lucid, I’ll check out their DE#.
If I see a number like 625 for example, I’ll be sure to post it here.

 

[dawktah LucidGT]

What do you expect them to do? Name the specific part and burn their relationship with their supplier? Not a smart move.

Fit and finish implies a body part IMHO, I am just curious if it is just that vs. electronic component etc. No worries

 

[hydbob]

Fit and finish implies a body part IMHO, I am just curious if it is just that vs. electronic component etc. No worries

Yea we all would like to know out of curiosity, but it would do Lucid no good to be specific about it.

 

[stealthpilot]

Savvy analysts and investors will look at Lucid's delivery record in the context of what's going on in the industry.

Rivian has lagged further behind in its deliveries than Lucid. Tesla has finally admitted that the Cybertruck and the Roadster won't make it to production this year. (Remember that Tesla took $250K and $50K deposits for Roadsters way back in 2017.) Mercedes originally announced start of EQS deliveries for the fall of 2021 and missed that goal. The Nissan Ariya has been endlessly delayed. Even the inventory storage lots of many legacy brand dealers are almost empty due to a paucity of cars coming out of factories relative to demand.

There is nothing unusual, suspicious, or nefarious in Lucid's delivery misses thus far.

Right but Mercedes has delivered a lot of EQS cars compared with Lucid’s number. Every dealer has received a car, and some have received several cars.

 

[mnewber1]

Saw this the other day:

Doing some work through the windshield haha - it would be funny if they just rearranged the cars to mess with drone flyers.

 

[hydbob]

Right but Mercedes has delivered a lot of EQS cars compared with Lucid’s number. Every dealer has received a car, and some have received several cars.

I mean according to Mercedes...

What is interesting, in Q4 2021, Mercedes-Benz sold 443 EQS.

That's not that great for a well established manufacturing and shipping distribution chain

 

[stealthpilot]

I mean according to Mercedes...

What is interesting, in Q4 2021, Mercedes-Benz sold 443 EQS.

That's not that great for a well established manufacturing and shipping distribution chain

Given the car did not hit US lots till after Christmas I would say it is pretty amazing.

 

[Alex]

Given the car did not hit US lots till after Christmas I would say it is pretty amazing.

I don’t know what the 443 EQS sold number represents in US sales? I think that number is worldwide.

 

[HC_79]

I don’t know what the 443 EQS sold number represents in US sales? I think that number is worldwide.

No, it’s US and for how late it came in the quarter they did a hell of a lot better than Lucid.

 

[hydbob]

No, it’s US and for how late it came in the quarter they did a hell of a lot better than Lucid.

Are we really comparing Mercedes Benz to Lucid?

 

[steveairgt]

I still think 2022 delivery forecast/guidance is the key. Anything significantly less than 20,000 won't be received well by the market.

 

[HC_79]

Are we really comparing Mercedes Benz to Lucid?

Why not? It’s the company Lucid wants to be compared to. When Peter tells everyone he’s not going to make the same mistakes others did with production and in November tells everyone they’re still on track for 577 then didn’t even seem to get 200 out in that quarter.

 

[stealthpilot]

I still think 2022 delivery forecast/guidance is the key. Anything significantly less than 20,000 won't be received well by the market.

It may be tough. Tesla produced 3100 in 2012 and 22500 in 2013.

Lucid does not have the same rolling start.

 

[MidwestLucidDude]

I'm also assuming the cars being placed all over the lot are in batches due to missing parts etc. The thing that amazes me though is how Lucid got so caught out on this. The car was delayed 6 months and they still couldn't manage to make sure they had the parts for 520 vehicles??? Or did they just store them in a warehouse and when going into production realized there was a quality issue with the parts then scrambled to order more.

Given the supply chain constraints you would have thought they would have ordered things well in advance to make sure they could hit the deliverables. Again, this was for 520 cars so if they screwed it up on that small number how can we trust that it's not entirely messed up for the mass produced cars and everything coming from Lucid is going to be at a snails pace.

All speculation of course, but Lucid not communicating doesn't help them at all.

Lucid has been advertising to hire factory workers for a second shift. If they’re parking cars on the lot because they’re waiting on parts or toying with fit and finish why would you start a second shift? To fill up that lot faster? I think you’d keep it to one shift until you work out your issues. I don’t think very many of those wrapped cars are just sitting there waiting. Most of them are moving out to customers.

 

[Adnillien]

Lucid has been advertising to hire factory workers for a second shift. If they’re parking cars on the lot because they’re waiting on parts or toying with fit and finish why would you start a second shift? To fill up that lot faster? I think you’d keep it to one shift until you work out your issues. I don’t think very many of those wrapped cars are just sitting there waiting. Most of them are moving out to customers.

It takes time to hire and train employees for a second shift. Start now to be ready when the parts issue is resolved.

 

[hmp10]

It takes time to hire and train employees for a second shift. Start now to be ready when the parts issue is resolved.

Lucid and the state of Arizona co-funded a training facility where new hires receive extensive training before reporting to the factory for work. Advertising to hire and actually putting people on the production line can be weeks or even months apart.

 

[dawktah LucidGT]

Keep in mind this "fit and finish" could be an adhesive. Either a specific type or process. If you have to use another don't you have to test or prove it works?

 

[MidwestLucidDude]

Lucid and the state of Arizona co-funded a training facility where new hires receive extensive training before reporting to the factory for work. Advertising to hire and actually putting people on the production line can be weeks or even months apart.

Obviously they missed the 520. I think they've been extra silent and are basically doing whatever they can to dampen the disappointment and effects of that reality with a forward looking statement saying that the 520 have since been delivered by the earnings call date and I think they will do almost anything to get at least 1 GT into a buyer's hands so they can say those deliveries have started. This has probably been their hope over the last couple of weeks now we'll see if they succeed.

I am also hoping for a good jump in orders. When they announced their previous orders the full impact of receiving the Car of the Year award was just beginning to settle in.

The executive team at Lucid confirmed 577 deliveries on their November 15 call. Just 45 days before the end of the year. In a time frame that short, you would think they would have knowledge on any fit and finish or supply issues, or they wouldn’t make that 577 promise. To me the simplest most obvious answer is they are delivering more than 520 Dreams. Everything about fit and finish issues, or low vin numbers delivered is simply speculation by people on the Internet. Just trust your eyes, and see all the Dreams in the parking lot, and the car carriers taking them away. It can’t be any simpler than that.

In a few weeks will know if I’m wrong, but I will be blown away because in November they say 577 and then if they only delivered 250 by the end of the year. That would be gross incompetence and justify firing the whole team.