Updated 2022 Production Estimates

[Sandvinsd]

Summary
- Production exceeds 400 vehicles as of February 28, 2022, with 125 customer deliveries as of year-end 2021 and over 300 deliveries to date
- Updating 2022 production outlook for Lucid Air to a range of 12,000 to 14,000 vehicles
- Customer reservations now exceed 25,000, reflecting potential sales of more than $2.4B

Revenue: $26.4M, est: $3.6M
EPS: -$0.64, est: -$11.11

What are your thoughts?

We have now finished Q1-2022. Many customers who confirmed orders back in November 2021 have still heard nothing about VIN assignments, let alone deliveries, meaning that they are now looking at a 7 month delivery window, minimum. Obviously the ramp-up to 20,000 and the revised 12-14k vehicles this year is just not happening. Some questions:

How many Dream Editions are still waiting to be delivered 3 months after they were to have been completed?
How many GT cars were delivered in Q1?
What should the new, revised-revised year end estimates be?

 

[CLTGT]

Another question: What is the churn? In other words, how many new reservations and how many cancellations for a net new reservation Number?

 

[MPawelek]

I doubt anyone on this forum could answer your question. Probably very few at Lucid either. There appears to be some huge gaps in communication at the Mother Ship……

 

[Boomer AZ]

Who cares

 

[CLTGT]

They are investor questions more than customer questions. I am an investor as well as, hopefully, a customer. All of the above questions would be typical analysts’ questions.

So, as a shareholder, I care. If Lucid can’t answer those questions, it is time to short the stock.

Last time I looked, this post was made in the investors section.

 

[mnewber1]

Given that they delivered 0 GTs in the first two months of the Q1, I estimate they delivered from 100-200 cars in all of Q1 for GTs. The YTD deliveries once they finally have their earnings call, will be somewhere in the 600-700 range.

On February 28, they had delivered 300 orders from November till then. Meaning they only delivered 175 cars in 2/3 of the quarter. So they probably delivered 200 cars in all of March with the production ramp up.

 

[otslade]

I doubt anyone on this forum could answer your question. Probably very few at Lucid either. There appears to be some huge gaps in communication at the Mother Ship……

Traditional OEM's are struggling to answer these same questions... They all are just going day to day and dealing with supplier issues day to day. It really is wake up and see what happens. Toyota's vaunted just in time manufacturing is now completely worthless

 

[Sandvinsd]

Looks like GM only made 457

GM delivered only 457 electric vehicles last quarter, but it assures us more are coming

GM released its Q1 2022 delivery results today and revealed that it only delivered 457 electric vehicles during the last...

electrek.co

 

[CraZ8]

The whole supply chain issue along with the overlay of a chip shortage has really screwed up the manufacturer of complex and high end consumer products. So it’s all car manufacturers to a greater or lessor degree. I would say Lucid is lucky to get out as many cars as they have but they can’t keep treading water indefinitely. Let’s hope for them and the industry as a whole this mess starts to lessen up in the next few months. We tend to forget the Great Depression dragged on for nearly 10 years and it took WW2 to finally break the cycle

 

[HC_79]

If you think this is only going to go on for a few more months you’re sorely mistaken. I was told not to expect improvements until 2023 at the earliest and that was BEFORE the Russia/Ukraine debacle.

This isn’t a Lucid problem it’s a problem with everyone (except Tesla it seems). Lucid’s issue didn’t seem to stem from them not ordering in advance but the parts being crap when they arrived so turnaround time to fix is much worse now than it ever has been.