Tesla Self-driving software

[hydbob]

• The Air will launch with less tech than what Tesla currently offers, but within a year it will likely be on par with Cadillac’s Super Cruise hands-free system and within three years, will have Level 3 hands off and eyes-off capabilities, which no automaker currently offers.

That's from a Car&Driver article in 2020. They only cite "the company" as a source but it's in line with an interview with Rawlinson I saw last year when I was watching every video I could find about Lucid.

I know I, as well as others, have written that Lucid is chronologically 10 - 12 years behind Tesla with software but in terms of largely matching where Tesla is today, I think it's really 3 - 4 years of software development time. As Tesla continues to innovate, Lucid will be playing catchup for quite a while but it certainly won't take 10 years to match where Tesla is today. I don't think they'll match Super Cruise capability by EOY - maybe they'll have test vehicles running early versions of the code by then. From introduction to EOY, Lucid needs to focus it's efforts on delivering stability, base functionality in the infotainment system largely in keeping with what is widely available today in other vehicles, reliability of base systems (locking/unlocking, cameras, app control of vehicle functions like remote cooling). While all of us that have or are getting DDP would like to get what we paid for, I think all of us would rather have what we interface with on a daily basis remain up and running, be reliable in working every time we call that function, and have the infotainment system provide the functionality we want way before we get advanced driving autonomy.

Highway assist should be active before EOY. I'm not entirely sure what's the hold up since they had a version which worked great at the factory commissioning.

 

[LCIDdreams]

Ok, Fisker 2.0 then given how long it has taken them to come back to market. I don't think the Model S killed the Karma, it's poor build quality and recalls were its nail in the coffin

Yes I would argue the Fisker Karma killed itself off just fine by virtue of it being a very compromised car. It’s also a plug in hybrid with only 32 miles of electric range, not a BEV, so I don’t think Tesla has much culpability in its demise.

 

[LCIDdreams]

• The Air will launch with less tech than what Tesla currently offers, but within a year it will likely be on par with Cadillac’s Super Cruise hands-free system and within three years, will have Level 3 hands off and eyes-off capabilities, which no automaker currently offers.

That's from a Car&Driver article in 2020. They only cite "the company" as a source but it's in line with an interview with Rawlinson I saw last year when I was watching every video I could find about Lucid.

I know I, as well as others, have written that Lucid is chronologically 10 - 12 years behind Tesla with software but in terms of largely matching where Tesla is today, I think it's really 3 - 4 years of software development time. As Tesla continues to innovate, Lucid will be playing catchup for quite a while but it certainly won't take 10 years to match where Tesla is today. I don't think they'll match Super Cruise capability by EOY - maybe they'll have test vehicles running early versions of the code by then. From introduction to EOY, Lucid needs to focus it's efforts on delivering stability, base functionality in the infotainment system largely in keeping with what is widely available today in other vehicles, reliability of base systems (locking/unlocking, cameras, app control of vehicle functions like remote cooling). While all of us that have or are getting DDP would like to get what we paid for, I think all of us would rather have what we interface with on a daily basis remain up and running, be reliable in working every time we call that function, and have the infotainment system provide the functionality we want way before we get advanced driving autonomy.

Yeah I don’t think Tesla’s 10 year “headstart” in production translates to 10 years for competitors to get to the point Tesla was today. Tesla was small and very cash constrained those days (way fewer investors back then prepared to take the risk on unproven new electric car companies). There was also a lot of trial and error for them to go through as there was a lot they were doing for the first time and not much to benchmark off of.

Polestar, Rivian, Lucid etc have much better resources at the equivalent stage so their growth and development should happen a lot quicker.

 

[HC_79]

Yeah I don’t think Tesla’s 10 year “headstart” in production translates to 10 years for competitors to get to the point Tesla was today. Tesla was small and very cash constrained those days (way fewer investors back then prepared to take the risk on unproven new electric car companies). There was also a lot of trial and error for them to go through as there was a lot they were doing for the first time and not much to benchmark off of.

Polestar, Rivian, Lucid etc have much better resources at the equivalent stage so their growth and development should happen a lot quicker.

I agree that Lucid isn't 10 years behind or will take them 10 years to catch up. Maybe 2 to 4 years but many are in the same boat when trying to catch up to Tesla. I think last year Diess even said VW is still 4 to 5 years behind Tesla.

 

[hydbob]

I agree that Lucid isn't 10 years behind or will take them 10 years to catch up. Maybe 2 to 4 years but many are in the same boat when trying to catch up to Tesla. I think last year Diess even said VW is still 4 to 5 years behind Tesla.

Yea they are. Look at the way legacy manufacturers design their EVs. Underneath the skin it's a mess with no elegance in their design. As good as the Ioniq and EV6 are, opening the hood is depressing to see compared to the Lucid.

 

[LCIDdreams]

Yea they are. Look at the way legacy manufacturers design their EVs. Underneath the skin it's a mess with no elegance in their design. As good as the Ioniq and EV6 are, opening the hood is depressing to see compared to the Lucid.

I think the legacy makers use as much common components with their ICE cars that they can get away with. That can lead to a lot of packaging inefficiency- hence non-existent frunks in BMW, Mercedes and pretty useless frunks in Hyundai and Kia.

 

[HC_79]

The platform alone leaves ICE makers for dead with efficiency, motor size, space, tech, etc.

 

[Sandvinsd]

I think the legacy makers use as much common components with their ICE cars that they can get away with. That can lead to a lot of packaging inefficiency- hence non-existent frunks in BMW, Mercedes and pretty useless frunks in Hyundai and Kia.

Yup. The Leaf has NO frunk. If you open the hood, you would get the feel that it is an ICE.

 

[thecodingart]

Yea they are. Look at the way legacy manufacturers design their EVs. Underneath the skin it's a mess with no elegance in their design. As good as the Ioniq and EV6 are, opening the hood is depressing to see compared to the Lucid.

I think you might be overestimating the time it takes to mimic and underestimating time it takes to innovate.

There’s some good Monro live videos and breaking apart and comparing EV internals. Legacy OEMs are NOT that far behind at all while having better infrastructure and support to adapt and build cars with mistakes they’ve already scaled to prevent. When comparing cars, remember there’s a true cost factor going into all of this, for example the Model 3/Ys battery is by far less safe than an S by design… and they cheaped out across the board there.

 

[LCIDdreams]

I think you might be overestimating the time it takes to mimic and underestimating time it takes to innovate.

There’s some good Monro live videos and breaking apart and comparing EV internals. Legacy OEMs are NOT that far behind at all while having better infrastructure and support to adapt and build cars with mistakes they’ve already scaled to prevent. When comparing cars, remember there’s a true cost factor going into all of this, for example the Model 3/Ys battery is by far less safe than an S by design… and they cheaped out across the board there.

Good point. I bet most of the legacy auto makers are buying Monroe & Associates’ tear down reports (Tesla, now Rivian, and presumably eventually they will get a Lucid to tear down).

 

[thecodingart]

Good point. I bet most of the legacy auto makers are buying Monroe & Associates’ tear down reports (Tesla, now Rivian, and presumably eventually they will get a Lucid to tear down).

They noted that they might avoid a Lucid tear down due to cost and Lucid releasing some video tear downs at their own expense. I would like to see a proper Monroe breakdown though. Any legacy OEM that cares about taking EVs seriously are buying these reports though.

 

[hydbob]

They noted that they might avoid a Lucid tear down due to cost and Lucid releasing some video tear downs at their own expense. I would like to see a proper Monroe breakdown though. Any legacy OEM that cares about taking EVs seriously are buying these reports though.

Pretty sure Tesla and Ford already tore down their own Lucids.

 

[thecodingart]

Pretty sure Tesla and Ford already tore down their own Lucids.

Ford, nah. Tesla, probably. Ford is focused on a different market that Lucid. They’re much more concerned with NIO + Tesla

 

[LCIDdreams]

They noted that they might avoid a Lucid tear down due to cost and Lucid releasing some video tear downs at their own expense. I would like to see a proper Monroe breakdown though. Any legacy OEM that cares about taking EVs seriously are buying these reports though.

Maybe they’ll wait for the Pure… so a while!

 

[LCIDdreams]

Pretty sure Tesla and Ford already tore down their own Lucids.

I’m sure all the major OEMs have / are (or will if they haven’t yet, due to lack of availability) benchmarking Tesla, Lucid, and Rivian which would include some degree of tear down. Given their industry is faced with major disruption for the first time it would be derelict not to.