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My expectations for Battery Day are going up, and they were already high. Even if much of it turns out to be vaporware, in the moment, it’s going to seem big.With the reveal coming the day after Tesla stock took a record-breaking tumble, I have a feeling this is just the beginning . . . .
With these type of glamour companies, perception is often more important than reality. I think it depends on how the stock gets to 9/22.I own a fair-sized tranche of Tesla stock and will be interested to see how Battery Day plays out. The fanboy community is looking forward to miracles being announced: thousand-mile ranges, quantum leaps in power density, etc. I'm more of the mind that it will focus more on production and volume efficiencies with things such as tabless electrodes, dry electrolyte manufacturing, and such things that will resonate with financial analysts. However, since so much of the stock price is driven by pie-in-the-sky beliefs that Musk can breathe fairies upon all he beholds, the stock might take another round of hits if my suspicions bear out.
Maybe I should start another thread, but I agree with the first part. If Tesla executes, the sky’s the limit for Tesla. EVs should be to Tesla what search engines were to Google imo. I feel Lucid can exploit this and focus on making better cars, albeit more expensive.I think Tesla volatility will last a while and create real opportunities for investors with a high risk tolerance. I have bought it more as a "hold" stock, as I think the real juice of the stock is on the energy storage side which is still under-appreciated.
To me the biggest risk in the stock is Elon Musk himself. He has already run afoul of the SEC and been removed as Chairman of the Board as a consequence. His shenanigans are what caused the Saudis to walk away from the deal Musk was seeking to take Tesla private. The personal vitriol he unleashed against Alameda County health officials signaled a man with petty and vindictive instincts, and his decision to reopen the Fremont in defiance of health regulations signaled an ego that is unbound by legal constraints (just as was the case with his attempts to manipulate the market during the attempt to take Tesla private). The list of senior technical people who have left Tesla is staggeringly long for such a young company. And the fact that Tesla is on its fourth General Counsel and third CFO -- the very functions that are supposed to be the guardians of corporate ethics -- is particularly bothersome to me.
I have worked in close proximity with industry legends such as Jack Welch at GE, Don Ohlmeyer at NBC, and a major hedge fund founder whose name I will not mention here. They were visionary, they were driven, they got things done, and they all carried the potential seeds of their own destruction. In the case of the first two, the seeds have already borne fruit in the fates of their companies.
. . . I think what used to be viewed as behavioral shortcomings is now able to be monetized.
All very good points, imo.I agree with that, at least in the founding years of an enterprise. The trick is for a company that gets its original foothold with the vision and industry-disruption ability of a quixotic founder to make the successful transition to a large ongoing enterprise. Eventually, the need to maintain leadership in all the strands that the founder originally spun takes a company beyond the direct personal reach of the founder. Then the premium shifts to the ability to find and support the array of talent to carry the momentum forward . . . and that is a very different skill set. Some founders have that latter skill set; some don't. The question is whether Musk does.
Musk is unusual, even among visionary entrepreneurs, in trying to fry so many eggs at once: cars, energy storage, AI, SpaceX, StarLink. While there are some underlying technology synergies among some of these, they pit Tesla against an unusually wide array of large and proven competitors all at once: legacy car makers, Amazon, Intel, Oracle, Alphabet, Comcast, AT&T, etc -- not to mention involve the company in the managerial complexities of being a government contractor. There are going to be some big stumbles (as there already has been with factory automation). The trick will be to keep it to skinned knees and not broken necks.
Thus far, the average lifespan of a Dow Jones-listed company has been about the average lifespan of a human being. It's hard to own part of the future for very long. It's very hard to own all of it.