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Official Lucid Air Launch Event (9.9) Thread

LUCID

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Official Lucid Air Launch Thread for our small community to come together to share what we find before the launch and for discussions, questions, and feedback during/after the live stream.

Watch the livestream by RoadShow
 
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hmp10

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I own a fair-sized tranche of Tesla stock and will be interested to see how Battery Day plays out. The fanboy community is looking forward to miracles being announced: thousand-mile ranges, quantum leaps in power density, etc. I'm more of the mind that it will focus more on production and volume efficiencies with things such as tabless electrodes, dry electrolyte manufacturing, and such things that will resonate with financial analysts. However, since so much of the stock price is driven by pie-in-the-sky beliefs that Musk can breathe fairies upon all he beholds, the stock might take another round of hits if my suspicions bear out.
 

BlindPass

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I own a fair-sized tranche of Tesla stock and will be interested to see how Battery Day plays out. The fanboy community is looking forward to miracles being announced: thousand-mile ranges, quantum leaps in power density, etc. I'm more of the mind that it will focus more on production and volume efficiencies with things such as tabless electrodes, dry electrolyte manufacturing, and such things that will resonate with financial analysts. However, since so much of the stock price is driven by pie-in-the-sky beliefs that Musk can breathe fairies upon all he beholds, the stock might take another round of hits if my suspicions bear out.
With these type of glamour companies, perception is often more important than reality. I think it depends on how the stock gets to 9/22.


The Tesla Fanboys were in well before this summer, and they’ll come out of the most mundane Tesla event thinking it’s Tesla’s right to hit 600. So were the “Tesla/EV aware”, which knew not to look at quarterly metrics long before the S&P 500 inclusion seemed imminent. I do agree that some that were not investing likely jumped in as Tesla stock became a bigger part of Tesla than making quality EVs.

It’s the investment community equivalent of fanboys that drove this imo- that is market sentiment (in a time of widespread retail cohabitating with institutional). We all know they (market sentiment) can be a fickle bunch, particularly when flamed. Look at the daily volume. It became a trader stock. The market fell in love with Tesla the stock first, then maybe the company imo.

I hope they bail, so I can pick it up again. Imo COVID was an accelerant to investors realizing the disruptions we’re facing. Tesla is still viewed as a way to get in on that disruption, and Musk specializes in the language of futurism.

The cat is out of the bag imo- it’s proven to hit 500, it still represents dystopian disruption, and the S&P inclusion still looms (although the fervor that caused should be less). If it goes under $250 before 9/22, I think the analysts will bite on the production costs improvements, and the retail ride Musk’s myths to 500.

On the other hand, perhaps anything Tesla announces is already priced in, battery day flops, and macros knock it further.
 

hmp10

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I think Tesla volatility will last a while and create real opportunities for investors with a high risk tolerance. I have bought it more as a "hold" stock, as I think the real juice of the stock is on the energy storage side which is still under-appreciated.

To me the biggest risk in the stock is Elon Musk himself. He has already run afoul of the SEC and been removed as Chairman of the Board as a consequence. His shenanigans are what caused the Saudis to walk away from the deal Musk was seeking to take Tesla private. The personal vitriol he unleashed against Alameda County health officials signaled a man with petty and vindictive instincts, and his decision to reopen the Fremont in defiance of health regulations signaled an ego that is unbound by legal constraints (just as was the case with his attempts to manipulate the market during the attempt to take Tesla private). The list of senior technical people who have left Tesla is staggeringly long for such a young company. And the fact that Tesla is on its fourth General Counsel and third CFO -- the very functions that are supposed to be the guardians of corporate ethics -- is particularly bothersome to me.

I have worked in close proximity with industry legends such as Jack Welch at GE, Don Ohlmeyer at NBC, and a major hedge fund founder whose name I will not mention here. They were visionary, they were driven, they got things done, and they all carried the potential seeds of their own destruction. In the case of the first two, the seeds have already borne fruit in the fates of their companies.
 

LUCID

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Celebrating California's 170th birthday today, we also prepare to welcome the #LucidAir into the world - designed and developed in our home state.

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BlindPass

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I think Tesla volatility will last a while and create real opportunities for investors with a high risk tolerance. I have bought it more as a "hold" stock, as I think the real juice of the stock is on the energy storage side which is still under-appreciated.

To me the biggest risk in the stock is Elon Musk himself. He has already run afoul of the SEC and been removed as Chairman of the Board as a consequence. His shenanigans are what caused the Saudis to walk away from the deal Musk was seeking to take Tesla private. The personal vitriol he unleashed against Alameda County health officials signaled a man with petty and vindictive instincts, and his decision to reopen the Fremont in defiance of health regulations signaled an ego that is unbound by legal constraints (just as was the case with his attempts to manipulate the market during the attempt to take Tesla private). The list of senior technical people who have left Tesla is staggeringly long for such a young company. And the fact that Tesla is on its fourth General Counsel and third CFO -- the very functions that are supposed to be the guardians of corporate ethics -- is particularly bothersome to me.

I have worked in close proximity with industry legends such as Jack Welch at GE, Don Ohlmeyer at NBC, and a major hedge fund founder whose name I will not mention here. They were visionary, they were driven, they got things done, and they all carried the potential seeds of their own destruction. In the case of the first two, the seeds have already borne fruit in the fates of their companies.
Maybe I should start another thread, but I agree with the first part. If Tesla executes, the sky’s the limit for Tesla. EVs should be to Tesla what search engines were to Google imo. I feel Lucid can exploit this and focus on making better cars, albeit more expensive.

With the base in energy storage and AI/Big Data, catalyzed from Tesla/Musk’s ability to vertical many industries, it’s IoT, communications, utilities, insurance, maybe more. Once you have mobile energy storage (car) as IoT with V2G/V2N, from a company apt in data and AI (FSD), there are many sectors they can disrupt. Only an existing Tech company will get in Tesla’s way imo. And politics.

Musk has his faults, but the generation prior and after Welch have some of the same feelings about Jack imo. That’s the nature of those that become legends from disruption imo, and from afar, I think they have more similarities than differences. I admittedly don’t view Welch as favorably as some, being in an industry that’s witnessed GE’s shortcomings setup under Welch, but I realize it was good for those extracting value in real-time. I’m a big FinTech believer, and I think what used to be viewed as behavioral shortcomings is now able to be monetized.
 
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hmp10

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. . . I think what used to be viewed as behavioral shortcomings is now able to be monetized.
I agree with that, at least in the founding years of an enterprise. The trick is for a company that gets its original foothold with the vision and industry-disruption ability of a quixotic founder to make the successful transition to a large ongoing enterprise. Eventually, the need to maintain leadership in all the strands that the founder originally spun takes a company beyond the direct personal reach of the founder. Then the premium shifts to the ability to find and support the array of talent to carry the momentum forward . . . and that is a very different skill set. Some founders have that latter skill set; some don't. The question is whether Musk does.

Musk is unusual, even among visionary entrepreneurs, in trying to fry so many eggs at once: cars, energy storage, AI, SpaceX, StarLink. While there are some underlying technology synergies among some of these, they pit Tesla against an unusually wide array of large and proven competitors all at once: legacy car makers, Amazon, Intel, Oracle, Alphabet, Comcast, AT&T, etc -- not to mention involve the company in the managerial complexities of being a government contractor. There are going to be some big stumbles (as there already has been with factory automation). The trick will be to keep it to skinned knees and not broken necks.

Thus far, the average lifespan of a Dow Jones-listed company has been about the average lifespan of a human being. It's hard to own part of the future for very long. It's very hard to own all of it.
 

LUCID

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Looks like RoadShow on YouTube is doing a LiveStream of the event. I will embed the video to the top of this thread.

 

LUCID

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#LucidAir is resetting the benchmarks:

-World’s Quickest Sedan
-World’s fastest charging
-World’s longest range EV
-The most aerodynamic sedan
-Class-leading interior space
-Curved Glass Cockpit display
 

BlindPass

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I agree with that, at least in the founding years of an enterprise. The trick is for a company that gets its original foothold with the vision and industry-disruption ability of a quixotic founder to make the successful transition to a large ongoing enterprise. Eventually, the need to maintain leadership in all the strands that the founder originally spun takes a company beyond the direct personal reach of the founder. Then the premium shifts to the ability to find and support the array of talent to carry the momentum forward . . . and that is a very different skill set. Some founders have that latter skill set; some don't. The question is whether Musk does.

Musk is unusual, even among visionary entrepreneurs, in trying to fry so many eggs at once: cars, energy storage, AI, SpaceX, StarLink. While there are some underlying technology synergies among some of these, they pit Tesla against an unusually wide array of large and proven competitors all at once: legacy car makers, Amazon, Intel, Oracle, Alphabet, Comcast, AT&T, etc -- not to mention involve the company in the managerial complexities of being a government contractor. There are going to be some big stumbles (as there already has been with factory automation). The trick will be to keep it to skinned knees and not broken necks.

Thus far, the average lifespan of a Dow Jones-listed company has been about the average lifespan of a human being. It's hard to own part of the future for very long. It's very hard to own all of it.
All very good points, imo.

Circling back to Lucid, Rawlinson seems to be more of the CEO committed to making the best EV. I’ve increasingly not got that sense from Musk. Tesla has a lot going on.

Musk is frying a lot of eggs at once. But that approach and mindset is arguably the strength and true disruption imo, given our IoT future. Tesla exemplifies Musk. Against those companies, Tesla’s moat is taking on those industry giants by offering the benefits of a different industry. A few years ago it was tough to get auto/investors to buy that Tesla was a threat to legacy auto, until Tesla made cars tech and soon utilities.
 
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hmp10

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We're doing Chinese take-out with friends followed by the viewing. I'm bringing the brownies.
 
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