Lucid 10,000 Units yr 1 ???

[St Bernard]

Lucid has stated that they want to produce 10,000 units year 1. Is this a realistic number? Here are the Unit Sales for 2019 for four Luxury Cars:

Tesla Model S 14,425
MB S Class 12,503
BMW 7 Series 8,823
Panamera 6,625
All of these were down for 2019 except Porsche.

Based on these numbers it’s probably more realistic that Lucid can sell a maximum of 5-7,500 units. So based on, let’s say, optimistically 7500 units how many deposits could they have at this time? Also based on only 35 members on this forum compared to Rivian(Stated goal is 12-15,000 of each of their cars) I would say they have, at most, 1-2,000 deposits and probably closer to 1500 at this time. If one assumes they double this after Sept 9th they would have 3,000 deposits 4-5 months before production starts. My numbers could be high. Curious what other people think. Also curious why they didn’t state a lower production number than 10,000 units for year 1. I guess if you said our goal is 5,000 units year 1 that would not give very much confidence to the Market. In fairness to Lucid I think they stated that first year(12 months) 10,000 was a GOAL. Not sure of that last statement.

 

[Jaxx]

Good observation but I think this figure was posted around 2017. Maybe they had this idea in mind? Look at this figure of the Model S... it was much much higher back then. I think we can't only look at 2019 because those who have purchased the S seem to be keeping them around longer hence maybe the drop in sales figures per year? But I think the Model 3 took a lot of sales from the S as well.

One thing to note is Rivian had a ton more publicity and postings around it than I do see of Lucid. Maybe Rivian had a better marketing team? But we are also looking at 2 different platforms. Rivian came out hitting hard for going to be one of the first EV truck/SUV to market so that gained a ton of interest I believe over Lucid that is coming out as a luxury EV sedan which isn't anything new. I am sure once Ford/Amazon also got involved with Rivian things just got more and more known about the brand and those who discovered it.

I think the uptick will happen with Lucid soon.

 

[hmp10]

Lucid has stated that they want to produce 10,000 units year 1. Is this a realistic number? Here are the Unit Sales for 2019 for four Luxury Cars:

Tesla Model S 14,425
MB S Class 12,503
BMW 7 Series 8,823
Panamera 6,625
All of these were down for 2019 except Porsche.

I think these are U.S. sales figures. Lucid has opened up reservations in Europe and at least two Middle Eastern countries, and I think the Casa Grande factory will also supply those markets. Given that Saudi Arabia's PIF owns 53% of Lucid and will be promoting the car and that Europe is turning to EVs other than Teslas as soon as they hit the market, I think Lucid has a good chance of moving 10,000 cars out the door next year.

Rawlinson has recently pointed out that, despite the U.S. move to SUVs, the global market for sedans is still a $100 billion market. Lucid would only have to capture 1% of that market to sell 10,000 cars averaging $100k apiece.

 

[St Bernard]

I think these are U.S. sales figures. Lucid has opened up reservations in Europe and at least two Middle Eastern countries, and I think the Casa Grande factory will also supply those markets. Given that Saudi Arabia's PIF owns 53% of Lucid and will be promoting the car and that Europe is turning to EVs other than Teslas as soon as they hit the market, I think Lucid has a good chance of moving 10,000 cars out the door next year.

Rawlinson has recently pointed out that, despite the U.S. move to SUVs, the global market for sedans is still a $100 billion market. Lucid would only have to capture 1% of that market to sell 10,000 cars averaging $100k apiece.

Good point about the rest of the World. I was only thinking about the U.S. Agree they could sell a lot of Cars in the Mid East.

 

[hmp10]

I've been following Lucid on YouTube. Whenever news breaks about Lucid, the first raft of video posts comes largely from the U.S. Within a couple of days, though, there are posts from the U.K., Germany, France, India, Thailand, Czech Republic, Saudi Arabia, Russia, et al. I think Lucid is beginning to garner a lot of interest from car-watchers around the world.

I went to graduate school in Germany, so I follow German news pretty closely. My partner is Polish and speaks Czech and Russian. So between us we have a pretty good sense of car developments in those parts of Europe. Some of the German videos on Lucid are among the most detailed and insightful out there. A German couple even attended the reservation holders preview in Newark, CA in February and posted an in-depth video including a chat with Peter Rawlinson.

 

[St Bernard]

Interesting article this morning with some apparent new details. If accurate the article said,”A Dream Edition Air will cost $161,500 after federal tax credits;the Grand Touring Air will cost in the low $130,000s after Federal Tax Credits and Lucid will also produce a sub-$100,000 Touring model in late 2021”. These prices now place the Lucid Air in a different pricing structure than Tesla. The article goes on to say that first year production will be 7-8,000 Units which makes sense based on the very high pricing. I think initially Lucid will lose a lot of Reservation Holders who though a nicely equipped Car would be $115-125,000. It was not even clear if these prices include all the Options. If not the Cars could easily be $10,000 or more higher. I’m a little disappointed and now may wait to see what else comes on the market in 12-18 months. I’m still watching Tesla to see what they announce in two weeks. Maybe this article is not accurate but they were very specific with the pricing details. The article is by Hannah Elliott and I found in on Yahoo Finance under Tesla. I’m curious what other people think.

 

[hmp10]

Could you perhaps post a link to the article? I've been unable to locate it.

If the article is correct, I'm only a little surprised. Rawlinson recently seemed to be trying to discourage press chatter that kept referring to a $100,000 Air by saying the Dream Edition would be "well north of $100,000". I thought the choice of words and their connotation was deliberate.

When you tally up all the technology Lucid is reportedly putting in the Air, you get a longer list than in any other car on the market, including even Rolls and Bentley:

- state-of-the-art drivetrain engineering
- new battery technology (hints of a tabless construction similar to what Tesla is expected to announce soon) and maybe new chemistry
- largest ADAS sensor suite in the industry, including lidar (which others avoid due to cost)
- full-spectrum noise cancellation technology (instead of the more common cancellation of engine noise only)
- acoustic glass all around.

I'm sure we'll find there are other things of which I'm not aware. There are also two potentially very pricey features to consider. We know the Dream Edition is not going to have the Executive Rear Seating option, and Lucid has never confirmed whether the glass canopy will have electrochromic dimming. If not included in the Dream Edition price, those two features alone could add another $10-15k to the car easily. (Mercedes charges $4950 for its Sky Magic electrochromic panel which is only over the rear seat.) And then there's the tri-motor version, which is not yet in the mix . . . .

I think you're right about reservations. If this pricing is accurate, I think there will be some attrition.

 

[hmp10]

Never mind about the link, St. Bernard. My brother just sent me the article:

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[BlindPass]

Could you perhaps post a link to the article? I've been unable to locate it.

If the article is correct, I'm only a little surprised. Rawlinson recently seemed to be trying to discourage press chatter that kept referring to a $100,000 Air by saying the Dream Edition would be "well north of $100,000". I thought the choice of words and their connotation was deliberate.

When you tally up all the technology Lucid is reportedly putting in the Air, you get a longer list than in any other car on the market, including even Rolls and Bentley:

- state-of-the-art drivetrain engineering
- new battery technology (hints of a tabless construction similar to what Tesla is expected to announce soon) and maybe new chemistry
- largest ADAS sensor suite in the industry, including lidar (which others avoid due to cost)
- full-spectrum noice cancellation technology (instead of the more common cancellation of engine noise only)
- acoustic glass all around.

I'm sure we'll find there are other things of which I'm not aware. There are also two potentially very pricey features to consider. We know the Dream Edition is not going to have the Executive Rear Seating option, and Lucid has never confirmed whether the glass canopy will have electrochromic dimming. If not included in the Dream Edition price, those two features alone could add another $10-15k to the car easily. (Mercedes charges $4950 for its Sky Magic electrochromic panel which is only over the rear seat.) And then there's the tri-motor version, which is not yet in the mix . . . .

I think you're right about reservations. If this pricing is accurate, I think there will be some attrition.

Agree.

Not only a lot of new and nascent tech, it’s a nascent company aiming to brand itself as the first luxury EV company. It’s going to be expensive, even in the context of EV! High production costs plus premium tech and materials.

An inferior equipped Tesla Model S, 8 years in, goes for 100k based on the premium drive train and battery tech. This car has even more advanced and premium EV tech. Plus in theory actual luxury trim.

At 160k for a dual motor, value proposition may be a consideration for me. Similar to the Taycan, which is a better car than the MS imo, but not enough to justify the extra cost. At least in the Dream, the range is elite too.

But I’m more tempted to wait to get information about the Lucid tri-motor and Plaid. At $160k, I might as well see what $200k will get me.

 

[St Bernard]

I just spoke to my sales associate and I told him I was disappointed by the pricing in the article. He replied that they were not aware of the pricing in the article and appeared to say it was inaccurate. He actually said they were caught “off guard” by this information
and that it was not correct. So we will see what happens tomorrow.

 

[hmp10]

I spoke to my sales associate, as well. She had just seen the article and she, too, said it was news to the sales team which is apparently not going to get a lot of the final production information until the same time we see it in the reveal tomorrow. She didn't voice an opinion on the article's accuracy one way or the other, though.

She had contacted me with an answer to my question about whether Lucid would send out exterior and interior color samples to those who wanted to order before their closest Design Studios opened. She said Lucid had no plans to do so, but she thought it was a good idea and was going to run it up the flag pole.

As I've posted elsewhere, I paid $128,000 in 2015 for a Tesla Model S with considerably less technology, less room, lower performance, and fewer amenities than the Lucid. So the Lucid price does not exactly shock me.

 

[hmp10]

In a "Teslarati" article that just went up (https://www.teslarati.com/lucid-air-price/) they wrote:

"The Air will come in a series of variants, starting with the Dream, which is comparable to a performance configuration. The Dream Edition will cost $161,500 after federal tax credits."

Could the Dream Edition be a tri-motor car, then?

See you guys later. Got some serious nail biting to tend to . . . .

 

[BlindPass]

What if the Plaid is $150k, better performance and range, but same Tesla ethos otherwise?

If the Plaid is that close to the Air Dream in price, it would need to nearly defy friction for me to go with another S (not that it’s a bad car). Maybe if range was the 600 mile mark of the Roadster.

Hypothetically, if the S were only 10k less than the Taycan Turbo S and only marginally better in performance/range (in part because the Germans like to over-deliver), I’m getting the Turbo S every time. The S was revolutionary, but the Taycan Turbo S is more fun to drive, and has the interior and trim. Although still smaller than some would want.

 

[St Bernard]

Lucid has stated that they want to produce 10,000 units year 1. Is this a realistic number? Here are the Unit Sales for 2019 for four Luxury Cars:

Tesla Model S 14,425
MB S Class 12,503
BMW 7 Series 8,823
Panamera 6,625
All of these were down for 2019 except Porsche.

Based on these numbers it’s probably more realistic that Lucid can sell a maximum of 5-7,500 units. So based on, let’s say, optimistically 7500 units how many deposits could they have at this time? Also based on only 35 members on this forum compared to Rivian(Stated goal is 12-15,000 of each of their cars) I would say they have, at most, 1-2,000 deposits and probably closer to 1500 at this time. If one assumes they double this after Sept 9th they would have 3,000 deposits 4-5 months before production starts. My numbers could be high. Curious what other people think. Also curious why they didn’t state a lower production number than 10,000 units for year 1. I guess if you said our goal is 5,000 units year 1 that would not give very much confidence to the Market. In fairness to Lucid I think they stated that first year(12 months) 10,000 was a GOAL. Not sure of that last statement.

Interesting that I wrote this over three years ago. I didn’t think at that time that my prediction would be the 2024 results. The company has never made a quarterly goal. I don’t think there is any chance of exceeding the next qtr since half of the qtr was already over when they reported the results. It’s hard to think the company has not just about hit the bottom and hopefully by q4(if Gravity launches) things get better. If Gravity gets delayed that would be the end of the Company as we know it today. Everyone on this forum knows how great the current car is (like many others I’ve been waiting for an SUV) but the rest of the Country has no idea who Lucid is other than maybe an expensive Sedan for which there is little demand. Good news on the stock is if you buy it at $2.50 you can’t lose much. Ironic that RIVIAN and Lucid announced numbers on the best day of the market in a year.

 

[no gas]

Interesting that I wrote this over three years ago. I didn’t think at that time that my prediction would be the 2024 results. The company has never made a quarterly goal. I don’t think there is any chance of exceeding the next qtr since half of the qtr was already over when they reported the results. It’s hard to think the company has not just about hit the bottom and hopefully by q4(if Gravity launches) things get better. If Gravity gets delayed that would be the end of the Company as we know it today. Everyone on this forum knows how great the current car is (like many others I’ve been waiting for an SUV) but the rest of the Country has no idea who Lucid is other than maybe an expensive Sedan for which there is little demand. Good news on the stock is if you buy it at $2.50 you can’t lose much. Ironic that RIVIAN and Lucid announced numbers on the best day of the market in a year.

Gravity is not the end of the company…..they low balled 9k production this year, quite obvious. If you like the company and product and want to own stock, just buy and forget for at least 5 years. Cramming your head with ifs and buts just causes a headache. I have 100% trust in Lucid management.

 

[AustinAir]

Lucid management is one thing, but you can’t fight physics. They have a LONG way to go for positive margins on the air and for the Gravity it seems like they will take a loss in order to prove demand (which I agree with). Even with “unlimited” Saudi funding this means guaranteed dilution of shareholders … more shares issued. But hey, enjoying the car a lot

 

[RM-S8]

In a "Teslarati" article that just went up (https://www.teslarati.com/lucid-air-price/) they wrote:

"The Air will come in a series of variants, starting with the Dream, which is comparable to a performance configuration. The Dream Edition will cost $161,500 after federal tax credits."

Could the Dream Edition be a tri-motor car, then?

See you guys later. Got some serious nail biting to tend to . . . .

Lol, just do it.
Life is too short.

 

[RM-S8]

Lucid management is one thing, but you can’t fight physics. They have a LONG way to go for positive margins on the air and for the Gravity it seems like they will take a loss in order to prove demand (which I agree with). Even with “unlimited” Saudi funding this means guaranteed dilution of shareholders … more shares issued. But hey, enjoying the car a lot

Yeah.
It took Tesla 13 years, but you know that, right?

 

[xponents]

Lol, just do it.
Life is too short.

@RM-S8 that was 4 years ago lol

 

[DBV]

Yeah.
It took Tesla 13 years, but you know that, right?

Totally different time now. Telsa was the only game and had more time. Now lots of competition with even more coming.