It's Always Darkest Before the Light...

[dbsb3233]

It's also always darkest before the end.

Oh to have a functional crystal ball to know which it's gonna be for Lucid. Fingers crossed.

 

[dbsb3233]

Yes, I think there is necessary dilution coming, but ultimately, they will absolutely at least get to the point where they get mid-size into production considering so much engineering is likely done. Whether they can scale that with service is the true life or death moment...on top of being sort of 6-9 months behind where most thought they would be with the Gravity, although this year has not been kind of any automaker. Go try to configure a new Model X in the Tesla configurator with an $1800 month lease and try to feel like that is a smart decision...

Sunsetting the $7500 subsidy from taxpayers wasn't gonna impact the Gravity much anyway (it's over the $80k cap, except for the lease loophole). But it'll make the next "affordable" model even harder to accomplish.

Luxury buyers have the money to pay $100k+ and not sweat $7500. Different matter for middle class buyers tho.

 

[lemans.z20@gmail]

Sunsetting the $7500 subsidy from taxpayers wasn't gonna impact the Gravity much anyway (it's over the $80k cap, except for the lease loophole). But it'll make the next "affordable" model even harder to accomplish.

Luxury buyers have the money to pay $100k+ and not sweat $7500. Different matter for middle class buyers tho.

the issue is the majority of luxury buyers are clearly not gravitating to lucid. Lucid NEEDS the middle class thats younger and into spending a little more on a younger brand and dealing with "quirks and certain lower quality".

I love our lucid, but i can see alot of issues in craftmanship and quality vs a more loaded e class or s class in this price bracket. They need to figure out how to keep the llease prices current without the 7500 credit which will help move units, which ultimately is what will help the stock price move.

 

[Blue Lectroid]

the issue is the majority of luxury buyers are clearly not gravitating to lucid. Lucid NEEDS the middle class thats younger and into spending a little more on a younger brand and dealing with "quirks and certain lower quality".

Actually, the Lucid Air was the number one selling vehicle in its class beating both BMW and Mercedes. So while I agree with you that getting a great mid-sized / mid-priced vehicle out there for the masses is vital to Lucid’s success, they are doing exceptionally well in the luxury segment given their limited product line…

 

[lemans.z20@gmail]

Actually, the Lucid Air was the number one selling vehicle in its class beating both BMW and Mercedes. So while I agree with you that getting a great mid-sized / mid-priced vehicle out there for the masses is vital to Lucid’s success, they are doing exceptionally well in the luxury segment given their limited product line…

where are those numbers b/c if your comparing one single car to an entire brand I HIGHLY doubt that is accurate. I think i saw lucid sold over 850 cars in total in June, mercedes group sold around over 540000 between april to june. I am curious what your comparing?

 

[L-Dude]

Comparing vehicle class to vehicle class

 

[californiaboy935]

where are those numbers b/c if your comparing one single car to an entire brand I HIGHLY doubt that is accurate. I think i saw lucid sold over 850 cars in total in June, mercedes group sold around over 540000 between april to june. I am curious what your comparing?

The Lucid Air is crushing the competition as the best-selling luxury EV sedan in the US

Lucid’s electric sedan can drive further, charge faster, and packs more advanced tech than most of the competition. That might...

electrek.co

 

[Ron_Burgundy]

I think one key hurdle is many folks in the luxury market aren’t interested in learning about a new brand. Period.

They’ve always bought Mercedes, for example, they now want an EV, so they get a Mercedes EV. That’s it. They’re not into mi/kwh, efficiency, engineering, software, etc. Same is true for most folks who buy Teslas now. I have a few die hard Mercedes and BMW loyalist friends who are open to EVs from their brand. That said, after driving my Gravity, they do seem to shift their mindset…and then they say “I don’t think Lucid will stay in business…” and they quickly drop it. I don’t think advertising alone gets them there though. You have to experience it.

So how can Lucid break in there? Maybe the mid size folks are less loyal and/or more interested in other cars. Look at the Model Y - that thing is ubiquitous now. I am 100% certain Lucid can make a better product for close to the same price - but it may be too late given credits are going away and that mid market is saturated with 3s and Ys…

Tesla got a LOT of free publicity by effectively being the first. Lucid doesn’t and won’t get that. In a way, the Rivian R1s were “firsts” too and got some publicity for it.

The Rivian R2 will give us a hint of what demand will be like at the mid level beyond the Y. However, I am quite certain Tesla can push the price on the Y even lower, making life very hard for a post tax credit Lucid…KSA has to be in for the long haul - another 5+ years, I think.

 

[joec]

Yes. That said, I have been very impressed with the progress they have made this year. With each update I have gotten more features and a more stable experience (except for that one in May!). They have a bit further to go, but really the basic functions are pretty good and approaching reliability that could satisfy a non-enthusiast.

I do believe this gets lost in all the conversations about software here.

No one will sanely argue that software is where it should be. But it has come a long way this year. And that's with a whole new interface in Gravity, while still moving Air's features forward.

Not to mention the ADAS team, who made great strides with the new hands-free system, which has largely been deemed successful. (And that's quite the feat, making the likes of us happy about anything.)

We've been over many times why software is where it is. Lucid clearly leaned into automotive engineering and grossly underestimated software out of the gate several years ago. But, importantly, they did eventually recognize that and make the necessary change.

If you know the history, and you know how large software organizations work, you know they don't turn on a dime. There's still lots of tech debt and catching up to do.

So here's hoping they keep pushing in the coming year. Midsize should largely run the same software stack as Gravity. And Air will eventually get moved over to the newer system as well. And that will help a lot.

But these things always take longer than you'd like.

 

[lemans.z20@gmail]

Comparing vehicle class to vehicle class

tough to go class for class unfortunately b/c those other brands have vehicles that in the dealer, people upgrade or downgrade based on pricing. I understand what your saying, but even that article tries to compare the tesla model s. I mean its the same car for like over 10 years I think.

Im not saying lucid is doing terrible, even though their debt and sales would say that. Im just saying, their market share started to increase when the price went down more to middle class prices. They were not selling before, b/c you were putting a car for the same price as an S class, and someone spending 100k in a big sedan and CLEARLY see the difference and issues.

If they can hold their ground now with the ev credit goes away and keep the pricing the same, they def have a shot, but I highly doubt it and i am for seeing a big drop in sales which is a fear. Will see, I am hoping im wrong, but I do believe the middle class, younger buyers is a MUST with the pricing to get this company over the hump.

 

[Leftlane]

The Lucid Air is crushing the competition as the best-selling luxury EV sedan in the US

Lucid’s electric sedan can drive further, charge faster, and packs more advanced tech than most of the competition. That might...

electrek.co

EV to EV, but nobody needs to buy an EV. Plenty of people are happy to get the next E Class or 5 series or whatever and not worry about electric at all. Those are the ones that have to be converted, not just the folks who are already convinced that EV is the only way, because that is a very limited demographic.

 

[lemans.z20@gmail]

I think one key hurdle is many folks in the luxury market aren’t interested in learning about a new brand. Period.

They’ve always bought Mercedes, for example, they now want an EV, so they get a Mercedes EV. That’s it. They’re not into mi/kwh, efficiency, engineering, software, etc. Same is true for most folks who buy Teslas now. I have a few die hard Mercedes and BMW loyalist friends who are open to EVs from their brand. That said, after driving my Gravity, they do seem to shift their mindset…and then they say “I don’t think Lucid will stay in business…” and they quickly drop it. I don’t think advertising alone gets them there though. You have to experience it.

So how can Lucid break in there? Maybe the mid size folks are less loyal and/or more interested in other cars. Look at the Model Y - that thing is ubiquitous now. I am 100% certain Lucid can make a better product for close to the same price - but it may be too late given credits are going away and that mid market is saturated with 3s and Ys…

Tesla got a LOT of free publicity by effectively being the first. Lucid doesn’t and won’t get that. In a way, the Rivian R1s were “firsts” too and got some publicity for it.

The Rivian R2 will give us a hint of what demand will be like at the mid level beyond the Y. However, I am quite certain Tesla can push the price on the Y even lower, making life very hard for a post tax credit Lucid…KSA has to be in for the long haul - another 5+ years, I think.

See this is what im saying, I agree completely. Middle class pricing is so important b/c younger generations just tend to not be so brand oriented. Pricing and how the car drives(or drives itself nowadays) is a big deal, especially how the cost of things are.

I can tell you my wife was die hard lexus, the past 7 cars, over 20 years of lexus none stop. Lexus recently got crazy with their prices, I took my wife to see the lucid, she wasnt super convinced. I told her lets try it and now she loves it, BUT for the right price. The car itself is beautiful but I cannot tell you its an 80k plus car in quality, but if the price were exactly the same when my lease is up, I would do it again without questioning it. If they have to raise the price, I just dont see the value.

Rivian too Im interested to see how they do, they seem to have gotten by with their commercial van sales and if these new little utes can have cheaper prices that will be a big deal.

 

[dbsb3233]

Tesla got a LOT of free publicity by effectively being the first. Lucid doesn’t and won’t get that. In a way, the Rivian R1s were “firsts” too and got some publicity for it.

And Tesla had (and still has, although not as much now) an army of free social media pushers doing their advertising for them. Largely to pump the stock. Lucid doesn't have that either.

Rivian incorporated a brilliant idea... those cartoon headlights. That one simple design element is their #1 market tool, IMO. They look so cool, and they stand out as unmistakably Rivian.

 

[BS8899]

It's also always darkest before the end.

Oh to have a functional crystal ball to know which it's gonna be for Lucid. Fingers crossed.

Let's not forget John McCain, quoting Charman Mao:

https://fixquotes.com/quotes/remember-the-words-of-chairman-mao-its-always-68395.htm

Makes you sound like an eternal optimist!

 

[Blue Lectroid]

where are those numbers b/c if your comparing one single car to an entire brand I HIGHLY doubt that is accurate. I think i saw lucid sold over 850 cars in total in June, mercedes group sold around over 540000 between april to june. I am curious what your comparing?

Top selling cars within class, not the entire brand. Fair point. That said, Lucid’s model is outselling all models within the same class from Mercedes and BMW.

 

[BS8899]

Top selling cars within class, not the entire brand. Fair point. That said, Lucid’s model is outselling all models within the same class from Mercedes and BMW.

Is Lucid outselling Mercedes/BMW just in the US or worldwide?

 

[Blue Lectroid]

Is Lucid outselling Mercedes/BMW just in the US or worldwide?

Dunno! But I imagine that was US data given that Lucid only operates in a few countries…

 

[Ktw13]

Is Lucid outselling Mercedes/BMW just in the US or worldwide?

Logic says not worldwide as many market doesn't have Lucid and it is just picking up in Germany.

 

[BS8899]

Dunno! But I imagine that was US data given that Lucid only operates in a few countries…

That's my assumption as well.

Lucid has done what they needed to do in the past 2.5 years or so with a lot of leasing deals, combined with the Federal EV incentive. Also, with the Pure and Touring models, they hit lower price points. These factors helped Lucid to move a fair number of cars, hence the US segment market share gains. Some of the deals I heard about (talking to fellow Lucid owners at charging stations) were as low as $500/month!

As you have seen in other threads in this forums, many of these leases are coming due. And the lease return process is a bit of a mess. It will put a damper on folks planning to do Lucid leases.

The Gravity intro has been less than perfect. I doubt Gravity will ship more than 3,000 unit in FY2025. Meanwhile, Gravity-envy might also erode Air purchases. I'd venture to guess the lower cost/mid-market Lucid SUV probably won't arrive in any consequential volume till 2027!