Estimated Number of Reservations by Year/Quarter?

[gavram]

Has anyone been able to get a rough idea of the number of existing reservations by year/quarter based on prior earnings call estimates?

I reserved my Touring on Oct 2021 and I was trying to get a sense of how many reservations there may be ahead of mine.

I'm guessing Lucid doesn't reference the number of reservations by model, but wasn't sure.

 

[joec]

Has anyone been able to get a rough idea of the number of existing reservations by year/quarter based on prior earnings call estimates?

I reserved my Touring on Oct 2021 and I was trying to get a sense of how many reservations there may be ahead of mine.

I'm guessing Lucid doesn't reference the number of reservations by model, but wasn't sure.

They haven’t revealed a breakdown by trim. Only a total number of reservations. The closest they came was last quarter, when they revealed there were more Pure reservations than the others, and that Touring was the smallest group of reservations. From there, people have speculated that if they are catching up on GT at this point, and they’ve only delivered roughly 4k cars, the total Touring list is likely to be 4k or fewer cars.

But who knows how many new reservations have come since then? And if a lot are GT, that could slow down the start of Touring production?

Most of us assume the vast majority of reservations are for Pure. As in 20k or more.

 

[gavram]

They haven’t revealed a breakdown by trim. Only a total number of reservations. The closest they came was last quarter, when they revealed there were more Pure reservations than the others, and that Touring was the smallest group of reservations. From there, people have speculated that if they are catching up on GT at this point, and they’ve only delivered roughly 4k cars, the total Touring list is likely to be 4k or fewer cars.

But who knows how many new reservations have come since then? And if a lot are GT, that could slow down the start of Touring production?

Most of us assume the vast majority of reservations are for Pure. As in 20k or more.

That makes sense. I finally found their Q3 2021 reservation stats of 13k reservations as of Sept 2021, and this increasing to 17k by November. If I reserved in Oct I'm guessing there were ~15k reservations ahead of me minus what's been delivered and how many were for the Pure model. I'm getting antsy with 2.0 software being released!

 

[gavram]

I also wonder if having a confirmed order (due to me trying to secure the prior ev tax credit) moves customers farther up in the delivery order queue or if they still base it on when the original reservation was placed.

 

[hitmanray]

I have a Touring on order from Oct 2020 so I hope/expect to be in the first wave of Touring deliveries. I have spent some time trying to figure out likely delivery based on orders, delivery rates, trim variants etc. I have come to realize it is futile.

My personal frustration is that they seem to be trying to completely clear their GT backlog before delivering even 1 Touring. For me that made sense with the DE because it was a limited run, but they are going to continue producing and delivering GT's going forward. So once the GT backlog is cleared are we going to see new GT orders going straight to production completely skipping over Touring/Pure orders that are years old?

From a purely fiscal business perspective I get it. The GT's are the highest revenue so one would assume the highest margin. And from a production standpoint it's probably easier to maintain production rates of a standardized variant (there are no options on GT other than color) than start dealing with option variants. But I feel like I am seeing more and more GTs being flipped whereas there are a ton of people who believe in the product/brand who are sitting and waiting.

Anyway, like all these types of things where one has to wait, I'm sure when it comes it will be awesome and the waiting period frustrations will fade into memory.

 

[joec]

I have a Touring on order from Oct 2020 so I hope/expect to be in the first wave of Touring deliveries. I have spent some time trying to figure out likely delivery based on orders, delivery rates, trim variants etc. I have come to realize it is futile.

My personal frustration is that they seem to be trying to completely clear their GT backlog before delivering even 1 Touring. For me that made sense with the DE because it was a limited run, but they are going to continue producing and delivering GT's going forward. So once the GT backlog is cleared are we going to see new GT orders going straight to production completely skipping over Touring/Pure orders that are years old?

From a purely fiscal business perspective I get it. The GT's are the highest revenue so one would assume the highest margin. And from a production standpoint it's probably easier to maintain production rates of a standardized variant (there are no options on GT other than color) than start dealing with option variants. But I feel like I am seeing more and more GTs being flipped whereas there are a ton of people who believe in the product/brand who are sitting and waiting.

Anyway, like all these types of things where one has to wait, I'm sure when it comes it will be awesome and the waiting period frustrations will fade into memory.

The finances only make sense if you are thinking only as far as the next quarter. If they keep just pumping out GTs forever at the expense of Touring, they risk all those Touring customers walking away.

A GT customer who has to wait six months is far less likely to just walk away than a Touring customer who has been waiting two years.

And the real money long term is in the Pure, simply because there are far more Pure customers to be had.

They do seem to be trying to squeeze as many GTs out as they can, but there has to be some sort of cutoff date to make the switch. Unless Touring will get its own completely separate line. I would assume if they are only having two lines, one would go to Pure, rather than Touring.