Pretty much right---and I don't see the personal attacks on Musk as shedding any light on the important issues here. Nor do the comparisons to Tesla 10 years ago; it's a different paradigm today, bec broader acceptance of the EV proposition, expanded tax benefits, battery efficiency, charging infra, etc, etc create an exponentially more fertile marketplace than Tesla faced in the beginning.
I think Musk's BK prediction for Rivian is likely wrong bec of their $16B cash reserve. But god knows that will evaporate in a heartbeat if they don't turbocharger revenues (i.e mass produce the damn trucks). By any measure the "promise" to buyers and investors alike has so far been unmet.
Re. Lucid, I also think the BK prediction is wrong, but only because of the Saudi sponsorship. Lucid has only about $5B in reserve and it's stock price is near all-time low. They have failed badly to mass-produce, and what they do produce is unusually faulty and warranty prone. The management team should be on the hot seat.
Re bankruptcy (Musk's thesis) it certainly doesnt mean the liquidation of the business (been there/done that). Rivian has successfully established a new brand, has a great product and a huge backlog. Before BK (which would damage the brand) vulture capital will see value, put in new $, and cram down the shareholder, IMO. The business will go on with new ownership and real professional management that knows how to mass produce in the automotive space.
Re. Lucid (IMHO) market acceptance of the product is much less clear...we've been hearing 30,000 orders for about 6 months. If it were steadily growing wouldn't they announce it? Leading with a $150K product was a gamble--yes, Tesla did the equivalent, but so what? Those people have already bought. In the current state of the equity markets--and LCID's production performance-- they can't access outside equity capital. With rates rising and debt underwriting tightening, it's hard to go to public debt markets. So absent the Saudis, Musk is likely right about BK. But the Saudis have tipped their hand: sure, they're in it for the IRR that drives all their investments. But they've showcased LCID with the big factory there, and the spin that they're diversifying out of oil/gas. I'm guessing they're too far in now to admit defeat--as long as it's clear the product has acceptance broad enough to scale, the company can actually produce at scale, and they can roll out new products to justify the huge infrastructure spends.
Sorry if i sound like a downer--I love theAir looks, I'm emboldened by the descriptions here of driving characteristics, and really want the company's business climate to be such that I feel safe buying. Right now it isn't for me...but watching and hoping
