Lease Gravity

Leases are so complicated.

(seriously though, can someone ELI5 because I now don't know what I should do - how does one go about making this decision well, in terms of financing/buying vs leasing?)
 
While I'm no expert, I'm thinking something like:

1. if APR is high (like 7%) then leasing to get the $7500 credit towards capitalized cost and then shortly after that buying the car with cash is best option. Because interest payments will chew through $7500 benefit.

2. if APR is low (like 2-3%, as I suspect it is for Air leases), then you can stay with the full lease and purchase at the end.

Roughly the interest payment on the lease and leasing costs (like $995 acquisition fee and any lease end fees) should be less than $7500 credit and you come out ahead. I made this excel sheet to compare the two for my order: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15aW4iUtXy9NcKE4xt59T4dXM4Kbg-NN4XQSyzDvF4X0/edit?gid=0#gid=0. You can duplicate and plug away to see for your builds.
 
I didn't think Lucid leases allowed purchasing at the end. Though I get confused by alot of the leasing discussions.
 
That is a spicy meatball. Not sure if will keep my DE order with those lease rates... the residual value looks rough.
 
Spicy indeed! Man alive that is a uuuge lease payment. Seems like Lucid use the residual value to manipulate the payments. It would appear patience would pay huge dividends, assuming the residuals migrate to the high end like the current Air leases.
 
Leases are so complicated.

(seriously though, can someone ELI5 because I now don't know what I should do - how does one go about making this decision well, in terms of financing/buying vs leasing?)
Leases are intentionally complicated, with many of the numbers buried to obscure the facts. One of the best ways to cut through this is to take the MSRP, subtract any down payment on the lease, and then divide what remains by the lease payment to get the number of months (years) you’d own the car before you fully paid for it. Typically you’re looking at 5-6 years, a dood deal is 8 years and a great deal is north of 10 years. I took a Lucid Air Pure on Lucid’s site for example: $70700 MSRP, $7101 due at delivery plus a $500 down payment, $619 monthly payment. So ($70700 - $7601) / 619 = 102 months or 8.5 years. That’s a good lease. Go to Leasehacker and you can find a detailed calculator/ breakdown and some really good deals. With incentives, ie Costco, Military discount, etc, there’s for example an Ionic 5 on the at 12.3 years, a new Audi Q6 E-tron at 9.6 years, etc.

The Dream lease shown above works out to 4.9 years. So while they show things like $7500 EV savings, etc, they are making up for that elsewhere in the deal to net out at a very poor lease deal. There are many knobs they can turn- residual value, interest rates, etc. These will determine if there’s any percentage in leasing and then buying shortly after, but my suspicion is they will have covered that off (the Gravity in current trim is too expensive to qualify for government money, so Lucid is simply adding a line showing a rebate in the lease, then making that money back elsewhere).

You can currently lease a loaded EV 9 at roughly 1/3 the cost of a moderate spec Gravity GT. We’ll see how long Lucid is able to command this premium.
 
You can currently lease a loaded EV 9 at roughly 1/3 the cost of a moderate spec Gravity GT. We’ll see how long Lucid is able to command this premium.
Even a $140K EQS SUV can be leased for around $1100. I get the premium but it’s a pretty big one
 
Even a $140K EQS SUV can be leased for around $1100. I get the premium but it’s a pretty big one
I suspect as long as they are supply constrained prices will stay high, but I also suspect they won’t stay supply constrained for very long at a >$1.5k lease payment.
 
Sounds like a follow up post to this original question might be needed.
Maybe not just yet until money factor and residual values are provided.

I remain in the "No" category, but still await the mf and rv data.

Screenshot 2025-04-17 at 11.21.02 AM.webp

 
You can lease an Air GT $124k MSRP for $1065/month $8165 down. Lease prices will come down once initial demand is met.
 
So it looks like the APR is about 8% and the residual is 62% for 36months 10k miles a year. I ran a bunch of combinations and got the same result.
I ran it for the Air and the interest rate is 3.2% and the residual is 50%.

My Matlab code:
msrp = 122000
net_cap_cost_a = 109115;
monthly_payment_a = 1535;
term = 36;
net_cap_cost_b = 89115;
monthly_payment_b = 913;
residual = sym('residual')
money_factor = sym('money_factor')
x = solve(monthly_payment_a - (net_cap_cost_a-residual)/term - (net_cap_cost_a+residual)*money_factor,...
monthly_payment_b - (net_cap_cost_b-residual)/term - (net_cap_cost_b+residual)*money_factor,...
residual,money_factor)
residual = round(eval(x.residual))
money_factor = eval(x.money_factor)
interest_rate = money_factor*2400
residual_percentage = residual/msrp*100
 
Leases are intentionally complicated, with many of the numbers buried to obscure the facts. One of the best ways to cut through this is to take the MSRP, subtract any down payment on the lease, and then divide what remains by the lease payment to get the number of months (years) you’d own the car before you fully paid for it. Typically you’re looking at 5-6 years, a dood deal is 8 years and a great deal is north of 10 years. I took a Lucid Air Pure on Lucid’s site for example: $70700 MSRP, $7101 due at delivery plus a $500 down payment, $619 monthly payment. So ($70700 - $7601) / 619 = 102 months or 8.5 years. That’s a good lease. Go to Leasehacker and you can find a detailed calculator/ breakdown and some really good deals. With incentives, ie Costco, Military discount, etc, there’s for example an Ionic 5 on the at 12.3 years, a new Audi Q6 E-tron at 9.6 years, etc.

The Dream lease shown above works out to 4.9 years. So while they show things like $7500 EV savings, etc, they are making up for that elsewhere in the deal to net out at a very poor lease deal. There are many knobs they can turn- residual value, interest rates, etc. These will determine if there’s any percentage in leasing and then buying shortly after, but my suspicion is they will have covered that off (the Gravity in current trim is too expensive to qualify for government money, so Lucid is simply adding a line showing a rebate in the lease, then making that money back elsewhere).

You can currently lease a loaded EV 9 at roughly 1/3 the cost of a moderate spec Gravity GT. We’ll see how long Lucid is able to command this premium.
Quoting my own post, I decided to go another direction until Gravity leases get more sensible. I just leased an Audi SQ8 E tron Premium Plus for 24 months/ 7500 miles per year. Kinda the opposite of the Gravity in that it's some of the oldest, least efficient tech on the market and it's no where close dynamically. As a stopgap, however, I can live with it. Oh, and $496 effective all-in monthly payment before taxes.
 
Quoting my own post, I decided to go another direction until Gravity leases get more sensible. I just leased an Audi SQ8 E tron Premium Plus for 24 months/ 7500 miles per year. Kinda the opposite of the Gravity in that it's some of the oldest, least efficient tech on the market and it's no where close dynamically. As a stopgap, however, I can live with it. Oh, and $496 effective all-in monthly payment before taxes.
And herein lies my issue with and IMHO the missed opportunity created by Lucid’s current approach to leasing on the Gravity. Do they have to be rock bottom lease deals? Not at all, but the approach they are taking is just hugely uncompetitive and will leave all but the most ardent early adopters waiting for better deals. Rather then building massive momentum and buzz in a world beating way, they risk continuing to relegated to the role of niche player.
 
And herein lies my issue with and IMHO the missed opportunity created by Lucid’s current approach to leasing on the Gravity. Do they have to be rock bottom lease deals? Not at all, but the approach they are taking is just hugely uncompetitive and will leave all but the most ardent early adopters waiting for better deals. Rather then building massive momentum and buzz in a world beating way, they risk continuing to relegated to the role of niche player.
How would it build momentum? They're going to sell every Gravity they can make for the foreseeable future (because of how few they can make)
Once they ramp they'll start subsidizing leases. The problem they face is that ICE manufacturers are selling EVs at a loss...
 
And herein lies my issue with and IMHO the missed opportunity created by Lucid’s current approach to leasing on the Gravity. Do they have to be rock bottom lease deals? Not at all, but the approach they are taking is just hugely uncompetitive and will leave all but the most ardent early adopters waiting for better deals. Rather then building massive momentum and buzz in a world beating way, they risk continuing to relegated to the role of niche player.
Agree with you. I'm likely waiting it out now just due to the ridiculous lease terms they have.
 
And herein lies my issue with and IMHO the missed opportunity created by Lucid’s current approach to leasing on the Gravity. Do they have to be rock bottom lease deals? Not at all, but the approach they are taking is just hugely uncompetitive and will leave all but the most ardent early adopters waiting for better deals. Rather then building massive momentum and buzz in a world beating way, they risk continuing to relegated to the role of niche player.
New model, with amazing reviews, no need to sell/lease at rock botoom prices. It's not like they are starving for cash, PIF has them covered.
 
  • Hmm
Reactions: DBV
Did a search for the initial lease terms for Air and found this as a point of reference:
My confusion is the pricing. For example, if I lease for 36 months in Washington, their calculator gives me $2,641.31/mo. I did $0 down for arguments sake.

That's $95,076 for a 3 year lease. Is Lucid telling us the residual after 3 years is around $45,000? Even with a high lease factor (interest rate), that's almost 70% depreciation in 3 years vs a $154,000 MSRP, or ~65% vs a $139,000 MSRP.

Huh?
Give it 6 months, reality will catch up.
Hopefully because they their hit 50k a year production goal... otherwise I worry about the company.
 
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