Gravity Delivery Discussion

[Blue Lectroid]

Even Lucid admitted you can have the best product in the world but if you can't get it in peoples hands then what good is it. Glad you're prepared to wait 1,2,3 years for "perfection" but many others aren't and will simply walk away. Let's face it, Lucid isn't really in a position for people to walk away PIF or not, they're a car company and need to actually deliver vehicles to make money.

While I don’t disagree with the general gist of your post, I really don’t think 6-7 months for those who ordered in November is a long wait. Now, if it slips well beyond that for them? I’m with you. I am expecting we won’t see our Gravity for 9 months to a year from now and that’s fine…

 

[msaunders9430]

When I feel the impatience swelling up about the Gravity, I just remind myself that once I have my fanny planted behind the wheel squircle, my impatience will quickly recede into irrelevance.

That's me.

I've already envisioned myself driving certain places.

Looking out the window from the gym and seeing it in the parking lot!

 

[sri]

That's me.

I've already envisioned myself driving certain places.

Looking out the window from the gym and seeing it in the parking lot!

Are you spying on me? This is what i am doing lately, in a Gym on a thread mill staring at my Lucid daily

 

[msaunders9430]

Are you spying on me? This is what i am doing lately, in a Gym on a thread mill staring at my Lucid daily

Yep!
I see that smile on your face!

 

[hmp10]

This will be old news for some, but . . .

For anyone who needs a way to while away the tedious days of waiting for their Gravity to be delivered, a way to stay reminded of what it is we're waiting for and why it's worth it are two videos I would recommend watching (or rewatching, if you share my bent for obsessing over Lucids).

As much as I appreciate Kyle Conner's test drive of the Gravity, these two videos really bring home the level of engineering excellence that underlies this vehicle. The first is by David Tracy, an automotive engineer from Chrysler/Jeep turned auto journalist, and the second is by professional stunt driver and award-winning auto journalist Jason Cammisa (Gravity discussion begins at 12:55 time mark).

 

[Knucklehead]

You're correct. Just getting more data to consider.

I contacted my sales advisor about the residual on a 2025 AGT.
I was quoted a price that equates to 54%.
Confirms what I've been reading.

The R1T also meets your use case (drywall hauling) and perhaps meets it better than a Gravity.
Also, to me, the R1T as a truck for hauling and other utility uses, looks good.
Wierd, I don't like the headlights on the R1S, but they're not so bad on the R1T.
A truck look vs. an SUV look.

If I mathed correctly, that is 40% depreciation in 3 years and after 45k miles. I bet it ends up depreciating more than that, but who knows?

 

[msaunders9430]

View attachment 27193

If I mathed correctly, that is 40% depreciation in 3 years and after 45k miles. I bet it ends up depreciating more than that, but who knows?

I think the depreciation is that total of what you pay at signing plus the total of payments made over the 36 months.
Hopefully that is not more than 40% of the vehicle price.

Somebody correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[msaunders9430]

View attachment 27193

If I mathed correctly, that is 40% depreciation in 3 years and after 45k miles. I bet it ends up depreciating more than that, but who knows?

I'm still learning all this leasing stuff, so help me out.
Correct me if I'm wrong.

I posted this on the thread asking if people would cancel their Gravity order if leasing wasn't available.
I'll post here to get full coverage on answer.

I'm reading everywhere that residual value is the difference between the the vehicle price and the depreciation paid during the lease term with monthly payments.
Correct me if I'm wrong on this, but it looks like a down payment skews or misrepresents that actual depreciation paid during the lease term with monthly payments.

Example:
Vehicle price: $100K
Lease term: 36 months
Residual Value: $60k
Monthly payments w/o downpayment: $1,400
Monthly payments w/downpayment: $1,100

Without a downpayment: $50,400 ($1,400 * 36) paid during lease term (50% depreciation)
Residual value of $60k + $50,400 = $110,400 (110.4% of vehicle price)

With a downpayment: $39,600 ($1,100 * 36) paid during lease term (39.6% depreciation)
Residual value of $60k + $39,600 = $99,600 (99.6% of vehicle price)

A downpayment is basically prepaying some of the depreciation?
In the example above the downpaymen required for the stated monthly payment calculates to $10,800 ($300/mth over 36 mths.)

A downpayment needs to be added to the total of monthly payments to determine actual depreciation paid by leasee?
In the example above $10,800 + $39,600 = $50,400

So, is the true depreciation 50% or 39.6%?

 

[Knucklehead]

I'm still learning all this leasing stuff, so help me out.
Correct me if I'm wrong.

I posted this on the thread asking if people would cancel their Gravity order if leasing wasn't available.
I'll post here to get full coverage on answer.

I'm reading everywhere that residual value is the difference between the the vehicle price and the depreciation paid during the lease term with monthly payments.
Correct me if I'm wrong on this, but it looks like a down payment skews or misrepresents that actual depreciation paid during the lease term with monthly payments.

Example:
Vehicle price: $100K
Lease term: 36 months
Residual Value: $60k
Monthly payments w/o downpayment: $1,400
Monthly payments w/downpayment: $1,100

Without a downpayment: $50,400 ($1,400 * 36) paid during lease term (50% depreciation)
Residual value of $60k + $50,400 = $110,400 (110.4% of vehicle price)

With a downpayment: $39,600 ($1,100 * 36) paid during lease term (39.6% depreciation)
Residual value of $60k + $39,600 = $99,600 (99.6% of vehicle price)

A downpayment is basically prepaying some of the depreciation?
In the example above the downpaymen required for the stated monthly payment calculates to $10,800 ($300/mth over 36 mths.)

A downpayment needs to be added to the total of monthly payments to determine actual depreciation paid by leasee?
In the example above $10,800 + $39,600 = $50,400

So, is the true depreciation 50% or 39.6%?

I am new to leasing also, but I am 99% sure that the downpayment reduces the depreciation that is financed, consequently reducing the amount of interest you pay as well as (obviously) the monthly payment.

If you play around with the lease estimator on various car sites, such as the one Lucid uses, you can see that the total amount paid is less the larger your downpayment. Again, that is because you are paying less interest. BTW - I tried to use a very large down payment in the Tesla lease estimator, and it said I exceeded the maximum down payment allowed. At first I thought that was weird, but the financing company makes money off the interest you pay, and the less you finance, the less they make. So they must have a minimum they need in order to make the lease worth the risk.

The residual value is what they think the car will be worth at the end of the lease. The monthly payment includes the depreciation as well as the financing cost. For my Rivian, it appears only the depreciation and interest is included in the monthly payment because all the other costs are paid at closing. Some leases may roll that stuff into the payment, resulting in more financed over the lease period.

Depreciation is simply current value (purchase price) - residual value.

 

[WeighingGravity]

Yes, generally correct. Here is a really rudimentary example:

$100K MSRP car on a 36-month lease at a 4.8% interest rate and a 60% residual. Let's say it's an EV with $2000 of sales incentives and a $2500 down payment, and let's say it qualifies for the $7500 tax credit.

$100K - $2000 incentives - $7500 tax credit = $90,500 adjusted vehicle price. Subtract another $2500 down and you get to $88,000. This is called the total capitalized cost - the amount of principle still owed on the vehicle at lease inception.
The residual is 60% x $100K = $60,000.
Over the next 36 months, you have to pay the difference between the $88K that still needs to be accounted for vs. the original cost of the car and the $60K - that's $28,000. Divide that into 36 payments, and you get a $777.78 monthly payment.

But there's interest to be paid to the financing/leasing company, too. You're paying 4.8%. You pay the 4.8% on the AVERAGE of the total outstanding principle amount due on the car - not just on the $28,000 you're paying for in the lease. (remember, the leasing company is going to pass on the interest for the entire vehicle, not just the delta you're paying for in the lease - the mfr still has to get paid in full for the car, so it ties up all the money, not just the piece you're covering.) How do you calculate that? It's basically the mid-point between $88K and $60K, which you would calculate as ($88K + $60K) / 2 = $74,000. The easy way to calculate the 4.8% interest is to turn it into a "money factor" that tells you what to add to each lease payment, multiplied by the $74K. Money factor = APR in % divided by 2400. In this case, that's 4.8 / 2400 = .002. So, you add .002 x $74,000 = $148 in interest to each payment.

So the total monthly payment on this example is $777.78 + $148 = $925.78 each month, at the end of which the interest is all paid off and there's exactly $60K of residual value from the original $100K unaccounted for.

Note that we applied a modest down payment here. In this example, with these incentives and tax credit, but NO down payment, the .002 money factor would be applied to a larger principle amount of $90,500 (and midpoint of $75,250), making the interest portion larger - $150.50 per payment. Plus you'd also be covering $2,500 more principle per payment = $69.44 more per payment.

If you went crazy and paid the entire $30,500 in a single down payment, there would be no principle portion in any payment - but you'd still have a monthly financing portion to pay of .002 x $60000 = $120/month.

You can see that the range of total interest paid between no down payment and a "Full" down payment on the lease is ($150.50 - $120) x 36 = $1,098.

Obviously everything changes as you move the inputs of MSRP, residual, incentives, credits, down payment, and interest rate. I have no idea what the interest rate will be on a new Gravity - I assume it will be something closer to "market" interest rates than the teaser rates (closer to 0 APR) that companies sometimes use to incentivize sales.

 

[msaunders9430]

Love the example.
Couple of questions:

1. I thought residual value (value of a car at the end of a lease) is not paid during the lease. It's paid at the end of the lease if the leasee wants to buyout the lease/buy the car. No?
2. Related to question #1, why is the monthly financing on the residual value resulting in $120/month paid during the lease, not after the lease if there is lease buyout? I could understand if the leasee chose to finance the buyout cost/residual value.

It seems like the $30,500 is paid either over the lease term or at the beginning (full down payment) and $4,320 (interest on $60k) is paid during the lease. That's $34,820 paid during the lease.

Doesn't the leasee have the option of not buying the car at the $60k residual value and walking away having paid $30,500?
In the example, the leaseee potentially has paid $4,320 in interest on a car they don't plan to buy.

 

[WeighingGravity]

1. I thought residual value (value of a car at the end of a lease) is not paid during the lease. It's paid at the end of the lease if the leasee wants to buyout the lease/buy the car. No?

Correct. I don't have you paying the residual in the example, only interest on the residual (and other funds borrowed in the lease).

2. Related to question #1, why is the monthly financing on the residual value resulting in $120/month paid during the lease, not after the lease if there is lease buyout? I could understand if the leasee chose to finance the buyout cost/residual value.

You still have to pay interest on the remaining principal owed on the vehicle during the lease. The leasing company is a third party - they still have to pay the full amount of the car to the manufacturer. They paid $90,500 (in the zero down example) to Lucid, so $90,500 of their money is tied up. They're going to charge you interest on the entire amount they had to come up with to pay for the car.

It seems like the $30,500 is paid either over the lease term or at the beginning (full down payment) and $4,320 (interest on $60k) is paid during the lease. That's $34,820 paid during the lease.

$30,500 of, ok, I'll use your word "depreciation" has to be paid for, but so does interest on $60K plus whatever amount above $60K was also borrowed during the lease, which depends on the down payment made.

Doesn't the leasee have the option of not buying the car at the $60k residual value and walking away having paid $30,500?
In the example, the leaseee potentially has paid $4,320 in interest on a car they don't plan to buy.

Yes, that's right. You have to pay interest. Whether you like it or not. Unless you can convince Lucid to loan the car to the leasing company for free for three years.

 

[msaunders9430]

$30,500 of, ok, I'll use your word "depreciation" has to be paid for, but so does interest on $60K plus whatever amount above $60K was also borrowed during the lease, which depends on the down payment made.

So couldn't a total payment of $34,820 be paid at the beginning of the lease to account for the difference in cap. cost and residual value and related interest and interest on residual value)? Everything but the residual value is paid upfront?

Could a person then turn around and pay the $60k residual?
That's $94,820 paid; $90,500 plus all interest?

That would be cheaper than paying the full cash amount (not financed or leased amount) paid to Lucid?
I'm thinking that amount would be MSRP minus interest?

 

[msaunders9430]

@WeighingGravity do you mind viewing this post and letting me know if I'm missing anything?
One other member commented that it looked good to them.

 

[californiaboy935]

You won’t want the Rivian after the lease ends because you’ll be stuck in the CCS/NACS Adaptor purgatory forever. It also has poor thermal management, so it doesn’t charge at high speeds that well and its battery is HUGE meaning you would be spending longer at chargers. In my opinion, it’s not a well-engineered car that you’d want to keep long-term. I’ve been considering the R1S, Q6, and Polestar 3 on the shortest lease possible if Lucid can’t deliver the Gravity in a timely manner. By the time the lease ends, the Gravity should be readily available, even the possibility of the mid-market model.

Waiting 7 months for deliveries to begin after production starts is simply insane, and it’s unclear where you’ll be in the queue beyond that. It could take 2 to 3 months or even longer. One thing is certain: if people were expecting to have a Touring in their driveway this side of Christmas, it’s looking increasingly unlikely. Considering that 3/4 of orders are new to the brand, I wonder how many will endure these prolonged delivery times or simply cancel their order and opt for something else, given the aggressive leasing deals available at the moment. Lucid may be playing the hand that "everything is normal" but this whole release seems seriously messed up.

Yes, I worry about this as well. I think it's the main reason all the sponsored content you see from Lucid is still Air oriented (from what I have seen). Try and keep the mad rush of normal people to when they have stock of the Gravity in a few months.

 

[WeighingGravity]

Yes, generally correct. Here is a really rudimentary example:

$100K MSRP car on a 36-month lease at a 4.8% interest rate and a 60% residual. Let's say it's an EV with $2000 of sales incentives and a $2500 down payment, and let's say it qualifies for the $7500 tax credit.

$100K - $2000 incentives - $7500 tax credit = $90,500 adjusted vehicle price. Subtract another $2500 down and you get to $88,000. This is called the total capitalized cost - the amount of principle still owed on the vehicle at lease inception.
The residual is 60% x $100K = $60,000.
Over the next 36 months, you have to pay the difference between the $88K that still needs to be accounted for vs. the original cost of the car and the $60K - that's $28,000. Divide that into 36 payments, and you get a $777.78 monthly payment.

But there's interest to be paid to the financing/leasing company, too. You're paying 4.8%. You pay the 4.8% on the AVERAGE of the total outstanding principle amount due on the car - not just on the $28,000 you're paying for in the lease. (remember, the leasing company is going to pass on the interest for the entire vehicle, not just the delta you're paying for in the lease - the mfr still has to get paid in full for the car, so it ties up all the money, not just the piece you're covering.) How do you calculate that? It's basically the mid-point between $88K and $60K, which you would calculate as ($88K + $60K) / 2 = $74,000. The easy way to calculate the 4.8% interest is to turn it into a "money factor" that tells you what to add to each lease payment, multiplied by the $74K. Money factor = APR in % divided by 2400. In this case, that's 4.8 / 2400 = .002. So, you add .002 x $74,000 = $148 in interest to each payment.

So the total monthly payment on this example is $777.78 + $148 = $925.78 each month, at the end of which the interest is all paid off and there's exactly $60K of residual value from the original $100K unaccounted for.

Note that we applied a modest down payment here. In this example, with these incentives and tax credit, but NO down payment, the .002 money factor would be applied to a larger principle amount of $90,500 (and midpoint of $75,250), making the interest portion larger - $150.50 per payment. Plus you'd also be covering $2,500 more principle per payment = $69.44 more per payment.

If you went crazy and paid the entire $30,500 in a single down payment, there would be no principle portion in any payment - but you'd still have a monthly financing portion to pay of .002 x $60000 = $120/month.

You can see that the range of total interest paid between no down payment and a "Full" down payment on the lease is ($150.50 - $120) x 36 = $1,098.

Obviously everything changes as you move the inputs of MSRP, residual, incentives, credits, down payment, and interest rate. I have no idea what the interest rate will be on a new Gravity - I assume it will be something closer to "market" interest rates than the teaser rates (closer to 0 APR) that companies sometimes use to incentivize sales.

BTW, this post is wrong

The interest I came up with is wrong by half. You can see I came up with $120/month in interest payments in the fully prepaid version - that totals $4,320 in interest payments over 36 months. But borrowing $60K at 4.8% yields $2,880 in interest, per year, times 3 years gets us to $8,640 in total interest, which should be correct. The reason is that you have to apply the money factor not to the AVERAGE of residual and total cap cost, but to the SUM of residual and total cap cost. I have posted the correct amounts and calculations for my scenario below. Sorry to be a F-up.

Here is a really rudimentary example:

$100K MSRP car on a 36-month lease at a 4.8% interest rate and a 60% residual. Let's say it's an EV with $2000 of sales incentives and a $2500 down payment, and let's say it qualifies for the $7500 tax credit.

$100K - $2000 incentives - $7500 tax credit = $90,500 adjusted vehicle price. Subtract another $2500 down and you get to $88,000. This is called the total capitalized cost - the amount of principle still owed on the vehicle at lease inception.
The residual is 60% x $100K = $60,000.
Over the next 36 months, you have to pay the difference between the $88K that still needs to be accounted for vs. the original cost of the car and the $60K - that's $28,000. Divide that into 36 payments, and you get a $777.78 monthly payment.

But there's interest to be paid to the financing/leasing company, too. You're paying 4.8%. For reasons I'm still not sure I fully understand and can't really explain all that well, the way to calculate the interest is to turn the interest rate into a money factor (money factor = APR in % / 2400) and multiply the money factor times the SUM of the total cap cost and the residual. In this case, the money factor is 4.8 / 2400 = .002. Then you multiply that by the residual ($60,000) PLUS the total cap cost ($88,000). .002 x 148,000 = $296/month of interest.

So the total monthly payment on this example is $777.78 + $296 = $1073.78 each month, at the end of which the interest is all paid off and there's exactly $60K of residual value from the original $100K unaccounted for.

Note that we applied a modest down payment here. In this example, with these incentives and tax credit, but NO down payment, the .002 money factor would be applied to a larger residual plus cap cost amount of $150,500, making the interest portion larger: $301 per payment. Plus you'd also be covering $2,500 more principle per payment = $69.44 more per payment.

If you went crazy and paid the entire $30,500 in a single down payment, there would be no principle portion in any payment - but you'd still have a monthly financing portion to pay of .002 x $120,000 = $240/month.

You can see that the range of total interest paid between no down payment and a "Full" down payment on the lease is ($301 - $240) x 36 = $2,196.

Obviously everything changes as you move the inputs of MSRP, residual, incentives, credits, down payment, and interest rate. I have no idea what the interest rate will be on a new Gravity - I assume it will be something closer to "market" interest rates than the teaser rates (closer to 0 APR) that companies sometimes use to incentivize sales.

I think this is right now, but I am open to being corrected. As Borski said, leases are complicated. But interest is no joke.

 

[Knucklehead]

BTW, this post is wrong

The interest I came up with is wrong by half. You can see I came up with $120/month in interest payments in the fully prepaid version - that totals $4,320 in interest payments over 36 months. But borrowing $60K at 4.8% yields $2,880 in interest, per year, times 3 years gets us to $8,640 in total interest, which should be correct. The reason is that you have to apply the money factor not to the AVERAGE of residual and total cap cost, but to the SUM of residual and total cap cost. I have posted the correct amounts and calculations for my scenario below. Sorry to be a F-up.

Here is a really rudimentary example:

$100K MSRP car on a 36-month lease at a 4.8% interest rate and a 60% residual. Let's say it's an EV with $2000 of sales incentives and a $2500 down payment, and let's say it qualifies for the $7500 tax credit.

$100K - $2000 incentives - $7500 tax credit = $90,500 adjusted vehicle price. Subtract another $2500 down and you get to $88,000. This is called the total capitalized cost - the amount of principle still owed on the vehicle at lease inception.
The residual is 60% x $100K = $60,000.
Over the next 36 months, you have to pay the difference between the $88K that still needs to be accounted for vs. the original cost of the car and the $60K - that's $28,000. Divide that into 36 payments, and you get a $777.78 monthly payment.

But there's interest to be paid to the financing/leasing company, too. You're paying 4.8%. For reasons I'm still not sure I fully understand and can't really explain all that well, the way to calculate the interest is to turn the interest rate into a money factor (money factor = APR in % / 2400) and multiply the money factor times the SUM of the total cap cost and the residual. In this case, the money factor is 4.8 / 2400 = .002. Then you multiply that by the residual ($60,000) PLUS the total cap cost ($88,000). .002 x 148,000 = $296/month of interest.

So the total monthly payment on this example is $777.78 + $296 = $1073.78 each month, at the end of which the interest is all paid off and there's exactly $60K of residual value from the original $100K unaccounted for.

Note that we applied a modest down payment here. In this example, with these incentives and tax credit, but NO down payment, the .002 money factor would be applied to a larger residual plus cap cost amount of $150,500, making the interest portion larger: $301 per payment. Plus you'd also be covering $2,500 more principle per payment = $69.44 more per payment.

If you went crazy and paid the entire $30,500 in a single down payment, there would be no principle portion in any payment - but you'd still have a monthly financing portion to pay of .002 x $120,000 = $240/month.

You can see that the range of total interest paid between no down payment and a "Full" down payment on the lease is ($301 - $240) x 36 = $2,196.

Obviously everything changes as you move the inputs of MSRP, residual, incentives, credits, down payment, and interest rate. I have no idea what the interest rate will be on a new Gravity - I assume it will be something closer to "market" interest rates than the teaser rates (closer to 0 APR) that companies sometimes use to incentivize sales.

I think this is right now, but I am open to being corrected. As Borski said, leases are complicated. But interest is no joke.

As someone who has never leased before, I learned something today that might help others deciding if they want to lease the Gravity or not.

The finance company owns the car. That means in Virginia, I cannot transfer my personalized license plates to my new R1T. That alone almost makes me want to just pay cash or finance it, but that is a stupid reason to change direction.

Since the finance company owns the vehicle, they pay the car registration and property taxes. However, they pass that cost along to you. Which is fine, except you should be aware of it. Some leasing companies will make you pay for the taxes separately (they will send you a bill) and some roll it into the payment. Actually, I don't know how Rivian does it, but I need to find out. And I am not sure if I can deduct that tax payment from my income for tax purposes. Probably not.

The Gravity will not belong to you. Which for me is a hard thing to get past. I just am not confident enough Rivian will be a viable company in three years, and even if they are, I will want to replace it anyway. So it just does not make sense to buy it. Except emotionally it really bothers me that I don't actually own it. I probably won't lease again for that reason.

 

[HC_79]

The Gravity will not belong to you. Which for me is a hard thing to get past. I just am not confident enough Rivian will be a viable company in three years, and even if they are, I will want to replace it anyway. So it just does not make sense to buy it. Except emotionally it really bothers me that I don't actually own it. I probably won't lease again for that reason.

This is every lease that has existed since the dawn of time. You will own it at the end of the lease if you choose to buy it. In the interim you’re effectively renting the car with the option to return it at the end of the lease. Drop it off and walk away.

If you want to own it at the end then finance it or pay cash. Also, just like Lucid, I don’t think Rivian is going anywhere.

 

[Knucklehead]

This is every lease that has existed since the dawn of time. You will own it at the end of the lease if you choose to buy it. In the interim you’re effectively renting the car with the option to return it at the end of the lease. Drop it off and walk away.

If you want to own it at the end then finance it or pay cash. Also, just like Lucid, I don’t think Rivian is going anywhere.

It really didn't sink in until they told me today that I cannot transfer my plates. Like I said, this is all new to me. Just trying to help out others who might be thinking about leasing for the first time as well.

 

[msaunders9430]

As someone who has never leased before, I learned something today that might help others deciding if they want to lease the Gravity or not.

The finance company owns the car. That means in Virginia, I cannot transfer my personalized license plates to my new R1T. That alone almost makes me want to just pay cash or finance it, but that is a stupid reason to change direction.

Since the finance company owns the vehicle, they pay the car registration and property taxes. However, they pass that cost along to you. Which is fine, except you should be aware of it. Some leasing companies will make you pay for the taxes separately (they will send you a bill) and some roll it into the payment. Actually, I don't know how Rivian does it, but I need to find out. And I am not sure if I can deduct that tax payment from my income for tax purposes. Probably not.

The Gravity will not belong to you. Which for me is a hard thing to get past. I just am not confident enough Rivian will be a viable company in three years, and even if they are, I will want to replace it anyway. So it just does not make sense to buy it. Except emotionally it really bothers me that I don't actually own it. I probably won't lease again for that reason.

Makes sense, but like you, someone who has never leased before, it's different.
Ownership vs. leasing.

I had decided on the vanity plate I want for my Gravity.
Even just the wording "my Gravity"; nope, not for three years.

I suppose for a possible $7.5k savings and being able to retain the +$60k in savings that was set aside for downpayment on a car loan remains a reason to still lease.
I'll decide once I see the interest rate and residual value offered on a Gravity lease.

Thanks for the heads up.