That’s one way to look at it. But I don’t know many families who would actually order a new $50k+ car without seeing it in person first or test driving it. And we are talking about a mass market car, not the Air/Gravity enthusiasts.
Usually with an actual ‘order’ you’re dealing with a non-refundable deposit. Not many people will order Cosmos in the dark that way. Lucid has nearly zero brand equity. I think few people will take that bet until they can test drive the car.
This is another reason why reservations made sense to me. Allows mass market people to learn about the brand and express interest. But I can also see how misleading that number can be.
As much as service and software are things to iron out, Lucid needs brand identity. Some recent EV podcasts are now saying it’s the major reason why Rivian will succeed and Lucid may not - brand identity is polar opposites for the two companies. And it’s not that Rivian hasn’t had problems either. In fact they have the worst reliability by CR. But they’ve created a tremendous amount of brand desirability.
Lots of people say things about Tesla, Rivian, Lucid, Polestar; which one will survive or go bankrupt, etc. It's their opinion.
I would never buy a Tesla or Rivian. Their styling just does not appeal to me. However, it does to others, and that's fine too.
Outside of Chinese EVs, my only real choice in the U.S. was Lucid Gravity (and Cosmos for my wife whenever it's available).
The potential market for new EV buyers in the US is in the millions, and Lucid will have a share. It won't be the end of the world if by 2030, Rivian has sold 500,000 R2s, and Lucid has sold 250,000 "Cosmoses".
In 2025, BMW sold ~76,000 X5s, and Volvo sold ~40,000 XC90s. Both companies are still around and continue to innovate and sell cars.
