The Changing EV Climate in the U.S.

I think it is significant enough if you travel a lot like I do where every mile counts. And it really does matter if you are trying to grow EV market share past first adopters, since ICE has no drop in range, absolutely 0 for as long as you own the car. I definitely think it is an issue and I love my EV, but it does slightly make me question getting another one even with all the EV benefits I love. If I never traveled or drove so much, then would not care as much though. 🙂

Agree with you on the cold weather drop too and hope solid state batteries does help with that.
I disagree, there is a definite decrease in range and power as an ICE ages, it's just cheaper and easier to recover it with maintenance. I think the EV market is dead if the longer-term serviceability is not solved, there is tons of bottlenecks with talent to fix and maintain cars, and the OEMs making cars impossible to fix.
 
We were appliance shopping and one of the salesmen spotted our Gravity and asked about it. We had 3 guys gawking at it in the rain.

Our plumbers was installing a water softener, so saw our Gravity. He asked about it and said his wife wants one.

Just before Christmas we were parked near a Supercharger and a Tesla owner asked if it really was nice inside.

Awareness is getting out there.



But those have been around for many decades.
And it definitely helps when you roll up to an almost full Tesla SC filled with Teslas and then blow them away charging in 1/3 the time like we just did on our recent road trip:)
 

Zeekr and Lynk & Co cars built in the US will be priced similarly to other Geely vehicles already built in the US - Volvo and Polestar.
Right there is no magic there in the supply chain and labor costs, you have to import tarrif'd stuff from somewhere and then use US labor market rates, energy costs, land rates, cost of living etc etc.. Outside of a totally net new ground up automated factory built by the Chinese they don't have such a huge advantage. Although I would like them to build a super advanced manufacturing facility in the US and move that world forward....
 
would never buy a car from China
Even if it were from a US carmaker, like Lincoln Nautilus (2024+), or Buick (cannot remember which Buick)?
 
NIO has solved this with battery swap, it solves so many issues: automated recharge in <5 mins, no charge curve to worry about, no battery degradation to worry about, no technology obsolescence to worry about. No carrying a giant 120KW or 220KW battery when you only need to pootle around town for 50 miles.
I'm not sure how well this would work in the US. We have a different culture here.

My wifes car is a Hyundai Ioniq 9 ( i couldn't wait for a Gravity), and the lady at the dealer who handles paperwork said she leased one. She said she just charges it to 100% every day because it's a lease and doesn't care what happens. That's the mentality of about half the country.

With battery changes, there would be huge amounts of waste, no recycling plans, and people intentionally abusing batteries. In the US, it is much better to own things if you want people to take care of them.

Then there is the issue of moving parts that will break. If an EV charger breaks, you just go to another place. If a battery changer breaks, your car is stuck and it will a take much longer to fix.

I think the solution is better battery chemistry, like solid state, to resolve issues with cold weather and range.

For the battery degradation, i had my Tesla for 6+ years. It was still at 94% of original range. I only used superchargers when on long trips a couple times a year and charged at 20% and only to 80% unless going on a trip. That's not much range loss.

Gas vehicles do lose range, but no one notices because it's not pointed out like it is EVs. Gas vehicles have carbon build up that makes them less efficient and loose power. This has a measurable effect. If you lose 2 mpg on a 20 mpg vehicle or 3 mpg on a 30 mpg vehicle, you have lost 10% range. You don't hear about this in the news because there is no huge oil lobby or news network trying to make you focus on it. To me, the whole range anxiety issue was created to stop EVs from selling. If your car gets 300 miles, it's not much different than a gas car. It takes 15-20 minutes to "fill up" vs 5 minutes, but most people stop to get water or snacks and stretch out their legs for that long anyway. Also, who is driving more than 300 miles a day often enough to even worry about an extra 30-40 minutes a trip? It's all exagerated.

The only disadvantage is the cold weather. But the advantages, even in cold weather, are huge. You can warm your car in the garage and the heat is almost instantaneous. The traction control works much faster and better. OTA are the norm. You get much more storage. It's inherently less likely to roll over if you skid. The front crumple zone is much larger. These things are just not advertized as much as "range anxiety" for the one or two times a year you might have to wait 15-20 minutes per stop in a long trip.
 
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I'm not sure how well this would work in the US. We have a different culture here.

My wifes car is a Hyundai Ioniq 9 ( i couldn't wait for a Gravity), and the lady at the dealer who handles paperwork said she leased one. She said she just charges it to 100% every day because it's a lease and doesn't care what happens. That's the mentality of about half the country.

With battery changes, there would be huge amounts of waste, no recycling plans, and people intentionally abusing batteries. In the US, it is much better to own things if you want people to take care of them.

Then there is the issue of moving parts that will break. If an EV charger breaks, you just go to another place. If a battery changer breaks, your car is stuck and it will a take much longer to fix.

I think the solution is better battery chemistry, like solid state, to resolve issues with cold weather and range.

For the battery degradation, i had my Tesla for 6+ years. It was still at 94% of original range. I only used superchargers when on long trips a couple times a year and charged at 20% and only to 80% unless going on a trip. That's not much range loss.

Gas vehicles do lose range, but no one notices because it's not pointed out like it is EVs. Gas vehicles have carbon build up that makes them less efficient and loose power. This has a measurable effect. If you lose 2 mpg on a 20 mpg vehicle or 3 mpg on a 30 mpg vehicle, you have lost 10% range. You don't hear about this in the news because there is no huge oil lobby or news network trying to make you focus on it. To me, the whole range anxiety issue was created to stop EVs from selling. If your car gets 300 miles, it's not much different than a gas car. It takes 15-20 minutes to "fill up" vs 5 minutes, but most people stop to get water or snacks and stretch out their legs for that long anyway. Also, who is driving more than 300 miles a day often enough to even worry about an extra 30-40 minutes a trip? It's all exagerated.

The only disadvantage is the cold weather. But the advantages, even in cold weather, are huge. You can warm your car in the garage and the heat is almost instantaneous. The traction control works much faster and better. OTA are the norm. You get much more storage. It's inherently less likely to roll over if you skid. The front crumple zone is much larger. These things are just not advertized as much as "range anxiety" for the one or two times a year you might have to wait 15-20 minutes per stop in a long trip.
NIO takes care of the batteries. It's far more efficient. You swap it at a station, it gets charged optimally from 10-93% on L2, it's even better for people who don't care about taking care of the battery. It's a whole pack change, no difference from current battery tech, still gets recycled at end of life or reused for storage. Building the infra in the US likely won't happen anymore at this stage. Anyways they can all DC Fast charge and slow charge, they have DCFC at the station as a backup.
 
NIO takes care of the batteries. It's far more efficient. You swap it at a station, it gets charged optimally from 10-93% on L2, it's even better for people who don't care about taking care of the battery. It's a whole pack change, no difference from current battery tech, still gets recycled at end of life or reused for storage. Building the infra in the US likely won't happen anymore at this stage. Anyways they can all DC Fast charge and slow charge, they have DCFC at the station as a backup.
I still see people charge it to 100% and leaving it for days at home and then exchanging it. Imagine Electrify America doing those battery changes... it broke and now i don't have a car. Lol. Anyway, like you said, it won't happen.
 
I agree with you on the lack of public awareness of the Lucid brand. Just 2 weeks ago, an assistant manager at Discount Tires who sold me the tire certificate didn’t even know Lucid is a local brand, only 60 miles from his store. Kind of sad actually.
As far as the Chinese EVs, they’re not aiming for the luxury market so Lucid is relatively safe for the time being. I’ve been in a BYD. The car looked better and was cheaper than the Tesla 3, although not in the same league with Air and with no clear history yet on reliability.
when using public charging, i always get questions, and my standard response is "it's a Lucid, made in Arizona, goes 469 miles on a charge" that satisfies them for sure.
 
NIO takes care of the batteries. It's far more efficient. You swap it at a station, it gets charged optimally from 10-93% on L2, it's even better for people who don't care about taking care of the battery. It's a whole pack change, no difference from current battery tech, still gets recycled at end of life or reused for storage. Building the infra in the US likely won't happen anymore at this stage. Anyways they can all DC Fast charge and slow charge, they have DCFC at the station as a backup.
The Nio swap idea never made practical sense to me. Not for personal cars, anyway. I could maybe see battery swapping being potentially viable for commercial operations, like trucking, going from hub to hub. But not personal cars. For one thing, they'd only be a small % of vehicles on the road. It only works with their own EVs, not anyone else's. Moreover, batteries are very expensive. You'd have to have many swap stations all around a metro area to make it work (for local driving), with a large stock of battery packs just sitting there for the peak periods where many cars would show up needing a swap. That's a huge $$ investment. Not to mention taking precious and valuable battery capacity out of commission. You could probably make 2 EVs for every 1 EV actually made with the extra swap batteries.

I just don't see how this makes sense at small scale. And you'll never get large scale unless all (or most) manufacturers used the same system and the same battery swapping. And that'll never happen.

And if there's just 4-5 well-stocked swap stations around a metro area, who's gonna want to drive 1/4 of the way across to city to reach one when there's gas stations every 5 blocks?
 
The Nio swap idea never made practical sense to me. Not for personal cars, anyway. I could maybe see battery swapping being potentially viable for commercial operations, like trucking, going from hub to hub. But not personal cars. For one thing, they'd only be a small % of vehicles on the road. It only works with their own EVs, not anyone else's. Moreover, batteries are very expensive. You'd have to have many swap stations all around a metro area to make it work (for local driving), with a large stock of battery packs just sitting there for the peak periods where many cars would show up needing a swap. That's a huge $$ investment. Not to mention taking precious and valuable battery capacity out of commission. You could probably make 2 EVs for every 1 EV actually made with the extra swap batteries.

I just don't see how this makes sense at small scale. And you'll never get large scale unless all (or most) manufacturers used the same system and the same battery swapping. And that'll never happen.

And if there's just 4-5 well-stocked swap stations around a metro area, who's gonna want to drive 1/4 of the way across to city to reach one when there's gas stations every 5 blocks?
I mean it sure seems like they don't have any of these problems....https://nioswaps.com/
Its not theory. You swap a battery you get one empty one back that L2 charger's while the other is in service. They have only 2 standard pack sizes (75kwh and 100kwhr) for all their cars, which is selling at 325K cars a year last year. Why would you be comparing battery swap to gas stations, the argument is the same for regular fast charging.

You are arguing about sitting with a giant Air/Gravity pack wasted space and resources when you aren't using all the range 90% of time. Could easily make 3 EVs for every 2 Air or Gravity large packs or 2 EVs and a swappable pack. They already tested out a 150kwhr semi-solid-state pack and there wasn't much usage for it because that huge range isn't necessary when you can swap in <5 mins.
 
I mean it sure seems like they don't have any of these problems....https://nioswaps.com/
Its not theory. You swap a battery you get one empty one back that L2 charger's while the other is in service. They have only 2 standard pack sizes (75kwh and 100kwhr) for all their cars, which is selling at 325K cars a year last year. Why would you be comparing battery swap to gas stations, the argument is the same for regular fast charging.

You are arguing about sitting with a giant Air/Gravity pack wasted space and resources when you aren't using all the range 90% of time. Could easily make 3 EVs for every 2 Air or Gravity large packs or 2 EVs and a swappable pack. They already tested out a 150kwhr semi-solid-state pack and there wasn't much usage for it because that huge range isn't necessary when you can swap in <5 mins.
They seem to be making it work in China, where 1.3B people live in mostly super crowded megacities in high-rise apartments. If you can't charge at home, this is probably better than having to DCFC all the time, which would suck. (I wouldn't even buy an EV if I couldn't charge at home.) It's a very different dynamic in the US. I don't see it working well here at all. Home charging is far better and far more doable here because most Americans live in houses rather than apartments.

The big battery pack in the Gravity is for road trips. It's not a local commuter car.
 
I hope that the new production solid state (not semi solid state) battery by donut is for real and adopted quickly, the specs they tout would make ice vehicles extinct. Combine that with California probably incorporating an ev credit into their new budget the right way could be a turning point for evs in the US again - a conquest credit to maximize incentivizing specifically new people to switch/try ev ownership. A grey area is still spouse that has ice converting when there is one already in the household. Right now no income restriction because the goal, this early in the process is focused on using the credit to target anyone who will switch. Just wanted to spread a ray of good news.
 
I hope that the new production solid state (not semi solid state) battery by donut is for real and adopted quickly, the specs they tout would make ice vehicles extinct. Combine that with California probably incorporating an ev credit into their new budget the right way could be a turning point for evs in the US again - a conquest credit to maximize incentivizing specifically new people to switch/try ev ownership. A grey area is still spouse that has ice converting when there is one already in the household. Right now no income restriction because the goal, this early in the process is focused on using the credit to target anyone who will switch. Just wanted to spread a ray of good news.
I learned quite a while back not to get too excited about all these "battery breakthroughs" we've been hearing about for the last decade+. Seems like there's a new one every few months being hyped. When I started getting interested in EVs about a decade ago (when NMC batteries finally got good enough make EVs with decent range feasible), so many different chemistries were hyped as "the next big thing", rarely to be heard from again. It's just such a long and difficult task to go from theory and lab to proven and practical for a demanding application like EVs. NMC became viable around 2010. Then LFP became viable around 2020. Solid state has been talked about for years, and it's 2026 already. These things tend to be measured in decades rather than months or years. (As does EV adoption in general.)
 
I learned quite a while back not to get too excited about all these "battery breakthroughs" we've been hearing about for the last decade+. Seems like there's a new one every few months being hyped. When I started getting interested in EVs about a decade ago (when NMC batteries finally got good enough make EVs with decent range feasible), so many different chemistries were hyped as "the next big thing", rarely to be heard from again. It's just such a long and difficult task to go from theory and lab to proven and practical for a demanding application like EVs. NMC became viable around 2010. Then LFP became viable around 2020. Solid state has been talked about for years, and it's 2026 already. These things tend to be measured in decades rather than months or years. (As does EV adoption in general.)
yeah, there's a very big difference between lab results and full-scale production
 
yeah, there's a very big difference between lab results and full-scale production
Absolutely agree, especially for solid state batteries, but supposedly currently have 1 gigawatt hr production capacity now and can scale with building more production facilities. These are going in motorcycles that are supposed to be in customer hands in the next 2-6 months. The modules are supposed to be ready for cars as well, but no 3rd party data available. However, Donut labs is in Finland and have heard that Finland doesn’t tolerate BS as a culture/society. I am surprised that the motorcycle manufacturer verge hasn’t put out any data besides their range.
 
I remember Elon hyping the 4680 battery and it's mostly been a bust
Seems that the newest EVs are using larger pouch or prismatic cells, cylindrical is its way out.
 
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