Target $0

[dbsb3233]

Does $5 today proves its not the entire market
Almost all the stocks are recovering and Lucid doing what it does every day (go down further and further). Rumors are they dont have parts ready for Cosmos yet and this may be a BS. But with Lucid position now, anything that is negative gets weighed more then positive weather its legit or not

Yeah, the "entire market" excuse is easily debunked on the surface.

The overall market is hitting new highs almost every week.
LCID is hitting new lows almost every week.

 

[socktucker]

Does $5 today proves its not the entire market
Almost all the stocks are recovering and Lucid doing what it does every day (go down further and further). Rumors are they dont have parts ready for Cosmos yet and this may be a BS. But with Lucid position now, anything that is negative gets weighed more then positive weather its legit or not

Former employees have discussed the Cosmos I think Lucid legal department got after them but that is the rumor

 

[socktucker]

Good lord it hit $5.00 already today

 

[borski]

Off Exchange Short Volume did go from 2 millionish to now 8.5 million, and there are broker lending $LCID shares out to shorts cheaper than free.
Once could say its Lucid fault no one scooping up to counter the shorting, but this kind of shorting is abnormal.

You don’t say!

Former employees have discussed the Cosmos I think Lucid legal department got after them but that is the rumor

Please don’t spread rumors. We frown upon that here.

And, fwiw, shorts spread rumors “through the grapevine” all the time.

 

[prgarg]

Good lord it hit $5.00 already today

Are they moving the listing from NASDAQ to Fiverr?
(Just kidding... not starting any unfounded rumors )

 

[socktucker]

Please don’t spread rumors. We frown upon that here.

I labeled it as a rumor! The car exists we have facts of that. It runs and drives, they showed it next to a Model Y.

 

[borski]

I labeled it as a rumor! The car exists we have facts of that. It runs and drives, they showed it next to a Model Y.

I know. But labeling it as a rumor still means spreading the rumor. “Journalists” with less integrity take that, run with it, don’t source it, and suddenly its a rumor that became “news”

So unless there’s a primary source, I (personally, at least) try to avoid posting unsubstantiated rumors.

 

[socktucker]

I know. But labeling it as a rumor still means spreading the rumor. “Journalists” with less integrity take that, run with it, don’t source it, and suddenly its a rumor that became “news”

So unless there’s a primary source, I (personally, at least) try to avoid posting unsubstantiated rumors.

I see what you mean. Its almost useless trying to speculate really. For example the industry I am in make decisions roughly 3 years before implemented. Whatever Lucid is going to do, they have already decided to do it. What remains is when they execute it. Nobody that knows can say anything, which makes all speculation a rumor by defult. In my opinion anyways.

 

[BS8899]

I see what you mean. Its almost useless trying to speculate really. For example the industry I am in make decisions roughly 3 years before implemented. Whatever Lucid is going to do, they have already decided to do it. What remains is when they execute it. Nobody that knows can say anything, which makes all speculation a rumor by defult. In my opinion anyways.

That's all fair.

But Lucid said at one-point that mid-size will be by the end of this year. I don't know what that means.

R2 intro is tomorrow. Six months ago, while the Rivian mobile tech was doing annual service on my R1S at my Sausalito home, I asked him what is going on. He told me they were training on the R2.

It is a long runway getting from have a couple of prototypes to successfully introducing a revenue product. Witness what Lucid did in 2024 with their paper launch of the Gravity! They can't play that game over and over again.

Now, I have absolutely no information about the Cosmo. Reality is such that there is a whole lot of proof-points that has to happen between now and Cosmo intro. We haven't seen much to give us confidences that anything consequential will happen by year's end.

 

[The_Don]

That's all fair.

But Lucid said at one-point that mid-size will be by the end of this year. I don't know what that means.

R2 intro is tomorrow. Six months ago, while the Rivian mobile tech was doing annual service on my R1S at my Sausalito home, I asked him what is going on. He told me they were training on the R2.

It is a long runway getting from have a couple of prototypes to successfully introducing a revenue product. Witness what Lucid did in 2024 with their paper launch of the Gravity! They can't play that game over and over again.

Now, I have absolutely no information about the Cosmo. Reality is such that there is a whole lot of proof-points that has to happen between now and Cosmo intro. We haven't seen much to give us confidences that anything consequential will happen by year's end.

Lucid indicated production by the end of year would be similar to when Gravity production "started" at the end of 2024, though they want their ramp up period to be a lot quicker than Gravity. Remember, it'll also take a couple months for cars to ship from Saudi Arabia. My guess is customer deliveries won't begin until April 2027.

Car development has been significantly streamlined in recent years. Prototypes are not what they meant 5 years ago. By the time the car design is finalized (before any fully operational prototypes), they are in near final form. Assuming their design assumptions translate as expected to the real world, they only have to do relatively minor adjustments and fine tuning by the time prototypes are spotted. This is a big reason why Chinese manufacturers are able to develop cars so quickly.

 

[dbsb3233]

Remember, it'll also take a couple months for cars to ship from Saudi Arabia. My guess is customer deliveries won't begin until April 2027.

I wouldn't really expect many (if any, other than testers) to be shipped from SA to the US for customer sales. Shipping time, import tariffs, etc. A slow rollout to work the bugs out over there seems more likely. Probably don't wanna waste that bug-detection time sitting on a ship for 2 months.

US production from AMP-1 (AZ) is supposed to start 6-12 months after AMP-2 (SA) production. I'd be surprised if US sales don't start until 2028.

 

[gaskiller]

Saw a Gravity the other day, followed for a while, looks awesome. No minivan vibe at all. So today, I bought more shares. There is nothing comparable on the roads.

 

[gaskiller]

I wouldn't really expect many (if any, other than testers) to be shipped from SA to the US for customer sales. Shipping time, import tariffs, etc. A slow rollout to work the bugs out over there seems more likely. Probably don't wanna waste that bug-detection time sitting on a ship for 2 months.

US production from AMP-1 (AZ) is supposed to start 6-12 months after AMP-2 (SA) production. I'd be surprised if US sales don't start until 2028.

US will be last quarter of 2027…I’m guessing. Whatever they build in Saudi will be scooped up by Saudi Gov to fulfill their 100k buy commitments

 

[The_Don]

I wouldn't really expect many (if any, other than testers) to be shipped from SA to the US for customer sales. Shipping time, import tariffs, etc. A slow rollout to work the bugs out over there seems more likely. Probably don't wanna waste that bug-detection time sitting on a ship for 2 months.

US production from AMP-1 (AZ) is supposed to start 6-12 months after AMP-2 (SA) production. I'd be surprised if US sales don't start until 2028.

They said they are prioritizing the US market. We also know they want to ramp production at AMP 2 before starting midsize production at AMP 1. It would be a logistical nightmare for them to ramp production in two locations at once, working out manufacturing kinks at both sites simultaneously. As such, I think it's safe to assume there will be meaningful deliveries from Saudi Arabia next year before AMP 1 even starts production.

 

[Pragmatic]

Most will initially come from SA. They have said SA assembled Cosmos will use Chinese batteries and favorable tariffs imposed on SA manufacturing to help lower production costs.

 

[BS8899]

Lucid indicated production by the end of year would be similar to when Gravity production "started" at the end of 2024, though they want their ramp up period to be a lot quicker than Gravity. Remember, it'll also take a couple months for cars to ship from Saudi Arabia. My guess is customer deliveries won't begin until April 2027.

Car development has been significantly streamlined in recent years. Prototypes are not what they meant 5 years ago. By the time the car design is finalized (before any fully operational prototypes), they are in near final form. Assuming their design assumptions translate as expected to the real world, they only have to do relatively minor adjustments and fine tuning by the time prototypes are spotted. This is a big reason why Chinese manufacturers are able to develop cars so quickly.

I hope you are correct!

They said they are prioritizing the US market. We also know they want to ramp production at AMP 2 before starting midsize production at AMP 1. It would be a logistical nightmare for them to ramp production in two locations at once, working out manufacturing kinks at both sites simultaneously. As such, I think it's safe to assume there will be meaningful deliveries from Saudi Arabia next year before AMP 1 even starts production.

Exactly! Does that mean Rivian R1/BMW/Kia/Volvo, etc. will have free rein on the mid-size EV market in the US until late 2027/early 2028?!

That's a LOOOOOG STRETCH!

 

[borski]

I see what you mean. Its almost useless trying to speculate really. For example the industry I am in make decisions roughly 3 years before implemented. Whatever Lucid is going to do, they have already decided to do it. What remains is when they execute it. Nobody that knows can say anything, which makes all speculation a rumor by defult. In my opinion anyways.

Precisely. And the problem is shorts explicitly want to distribute rumors that people will “speculate” about in forums just such as these (though I am not nearly arrogant enough to think this forum has any effect on the stock price). And then CNBC picks it up and suddenly the stock tanks.

Rumors are just that. I can walk over to a Rivian forum and post “I heard from a high-up engineer that the R2 is full of rust” and without any other info, people will pick it up and run with it.

It’s dumb, and I hate it, and it’s why I mourn the present state of journalism.

But that’s why we try not to post rumors. If it’s true, it will come out.

 

[mike1121]

Saw a Gravity the other day, followed for a while, looks awesome. No minivan vibe at all. So today, I bought more shares. There is nothing comparable on the roads.

Have driven my Gravity for two weeks. Love it. Also bought some more shares. What the heck, why not.

 

[tmichael]

Saw a Gravity the other day, followed for a while, looks awesome. No minivan vibe at all. So today, I bought more shares. There is nothing comparable on the roads.

Did you really buy the shares because it didn't give you minivan vibes or because you thought $5 was a good price and/or you are dollar-cost averaging?

I bought to DCA. But, I wanted to check what algo you are using.

 

[tmichael]

Have driven my Gravity for two weeks. Love it. Also bought some more shares. What the heck, why not.

Well, one reason is because it is down down 80% from its 52 week high.

... but, I bought to dollar-cost-average down.