I don't think you're correct that Waymo has abandoned Zeekr. Reputable press outlets report as of this January that Waymo continues to build out their "Ojai" taxis, which are Zeekr based. And I've started to see them driving around in SF.
I didn't say "abandoned Zeekr." I said: "tariffs on Chinese cars made those too expensive, so they pivoted to Hyundais."
Here's an
article on exactly that, saying in part:
Waymo’s potential deal with Hyundai for the IONIQ 5 platform could mark the end of Waymo’s deal with Zeekr, ending what we have termed an unforced error.
Here's a 7 month old article on what Waymo has to do to get around import tariffs as well as regulations on Chinese electronics in vehicles on US public roads:
How Waymo & Zeekr Are Navigating Geopolitical Barriers America’s 100 % tariff on Chinese-made EVs and an upcoming 2030 ban on Chinese vehicle electronics looked like a brick wall—until Waymo partnered with Geely’s Zeekr brand and found a workable path through. Below is the playbook and why it...
www.linkedin.com
Zeekr makes the vehicle parts, sends them to Sweden for assembly, then those are sent to Arizona. That article notes:
If Washington redefines “Chinese-owned brand” as disallowed, the current arrangement could end abruptly. Waymo is already exploring a backup platform with Hyundai/Kia, but that option carries higher costs and longer timelines.
So I think Waymo's in a tough spot either way. We know there are Zeekrs being tested (as evidenced by the crash in Echo Park a couple days ago), and so we'll start seeing those, and I'm sure there are both Zeekrs in the the US being modified and perhaps even more on the way, but Waymo knows that's not a secure future path for them.
We are absolutely not going to have a world of robotaxis. At best it will be a Waymo competitor puttering around San Francisco.
And if that were true, why did Tesla waste the time making a cheaper 3 and Y then? CHECKMATE
Tesla didn't "waste time" with 3 and Y - they made a ton of money, established themselves as a world-wide high-volume automotive producer: Both of which turned out to be needed for the next step. That Tesla is already running taxi services with Model Y shows the value in that, even if somewhat accidental in terms of development.
Have you read Tony Seba?
Explore the transformative impact of autonomous electric vehicles on society, economy, and geopolitics, as predicted in 'Rethinking Transportation' by Tony Seba and James Arbib.
www.rethinkx.com
At its heart, the argument behind Seba and Arbib’s ‘Rethinking Transportation’ (RT) is simple: electric vehicles that can safely drive themselves will be cheap to operate, so cheap that a new business model will arise,
Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS), where passengers access on-demand transportation from fleets of autonomous electric vehicles (A-EVs), reducing (and eventually, eliminating) the need for human driving and individual vehicle ownership.
These services will start in large cities, Seba and Arbib predicted, but will quickly expand in their range and in the number of vehicles in the fleets, ‘disrupting’ human-driven trips with robotaxi-driven ones.
It's taking longer than they predicted, but it's happening.
To me the biggest surprise is Tesla does not appear to have a plan for filling the holes in the portfolio left by these two vehicles exiting. Model 3 and Model Y are great volume levers but they leave nowhere to go for Tesla customers who want "what's next". At some point everyone who wants a Model 3 or a Model Y will have one. But then what? No aspirational vehicles, no "next life-stage" vehicles, no "my personal toy" vehicles to help balance out the portfolio.
Maybe that's "traditional automaker-think" on my part but when I look at the areas of focus of newer EV launches, I think not.
I've also worked at a couple OEMs, including a low volume, premium EV brand.
As I posted, Elon already previewed this change back in 2019:
Tesla continues to produce the Model S and Model X more for "sentimental reasons than anything else," CEO Elon Musk said Wednesday during a call with
techcrunch.com
Companies like Mercedes were always limited in their growth by the size of the markets in which their products could be sold. That's why Mercedes moved downmarket in 1997 with the A-Class. However, despite that, Tesla has sold more Model 3s and Ys in 8 years than Mercedes has sold A-Classes in 28.
The best VCRs ever made came out in the 1990s. Who cares what was the best landline phone ever made? Who rents DVDs anymore? Even Ferrari discontinued manual transmissions in 2012. We're in a world today where die-hards are clinging to their ICE vehicles, but we all know the future is electric.
However, why should we assume that is the end-state? It's not.
Musk, and therefore Tesla, believe that the next thing is not a better vehicle, but more convenient and cheaper transportation. Sure, there will still be a market for people who want to own a vehicle. But, at some point, I predict, they'll be prohibited from driving it in certain cities, because it simply won't be as safe. And many people being born today may not even get a driver's license - ever. I was going to post something about needing a license to drive a tractor on rural roads to get it from place to place, but I see John Deere already has the autonomous 8R tractor.
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I do think this is, at least in the near term, an opportunity for Lucid, who is running about 10 years behind Tesla (in 2016 Tesla had released its big SUV and was planning the Model 3 just as Lucid has its SUV and is planning the Earth today). But, the world is different. Hopefully, Lucid is serious about its Nvidia Drive integration, as in 2027 coming out with mid-size, mid-priced vehicle without a solid L2++ system would be a sales failure.
I think it's very impressive that Lucid is claiming half the component count of a model Y for the upcoming mid-size.
That's not what Lucid is claiming. Here's the quote from Lucid's CEO:
We know what the BOM costs [are] from some [competitor] vehicles from U.S. manufacturers in that segment. We're talking about almost
half of it. We've done a lot of optimization. We have right now [a] lower parts count than the
new [Tesla] Model Y.
Lucid's CEO teases a few more details about the midsize vehicle on which its future viability relies.
www.motortrend.com
They're claiming almost half of the
costs.
They're claiming "lower parts count" than the Model Y.
Don't confuse the two, as Autoline apparently did.
I just hope Earth isn't like the best VCR ever made.
