No more Model S/X production

[socktucker]

as the low end will be most using robotaxis because for them it's just cheaper than owning, maintaining, and insuring a vehicle.

Uh huh just like VR is gonna make us all work in virtual worlds, Lime Scooter and Bird and whatever other shoveled scooter startups we’re gonna change transportation. We are absolutely not going to have a world of robotaxis. At best it will be a Waymo competitor puttering around San Francisco.

And if that were true, why did Tesla waste the time making a cheaper 3 and Y then? CHECKMATE

 

[Leftlane]

I posted the below earlier on the Tesla forum - now if I can get comfortable with the state of the Air software and there is a big expansion in the service center network, I’m a great prospect for Lucid - let’s see if they get aggressive to convert Tesla owners.

Sad - my first and last Tesla then. At least I experienced the maximum with the Model S Plaid, but that will be it for me and this brand. Harvard business school should be putting the finishing touches on their case study of how Elon squandered a truly great American success story with a lack of focus, an ineffective board, a massive ego, and fever dreams about bullsh** robots and cybercabs no one needs or wants and are destined to be relegated to the dustbin of terrible ideas. What a shame because I am obsessed with my Plaid S.

 

[bassmaster187]

I think Elon needs space for the cybercab in california. And because Model S/X are far away from 50.000 a year, this might be the consequence.

 

[Pragmatic]

So they will report quarterly CyberTruck production and sales or will they just roll all vehicle production into a single number?

 

[TahoeMichael]

Think about IBM moving away from mainframes. Better than DEC stick with midis and company folding.

IBM never stopped investing in mainframes. They regularly introduce updated mainframe hardware, and continue to bring in billions from the business, decades after people tried to tell them the business is doomed. They do also maintain a diversified business with many other sources of revenue. I'd argue that IBM's mainframe business bears little resemblance to Tesla's apparent lack of interest in competing as a vehicle manufacturer.

 

[Tâm]

Think about IBM moving away from mainframes. Better than DEC stick with midis and company folding.
Think about Netflix moving away from DVD rentals. Better than Blockbuster.
Think about Nintendo moving away from playing cards to video games.

Tesla is moving from selling cars to selling transportation services. Will they be successful? Maybe, maybe not, but staying in the car making business with it's high capex and low margins and competition from China coming on strong would be a death sentence.


It's pretty clear that Tesla stopped innovating with Model X by 2019, and with Model S after plaid. That neither car has rear wheel steering, 400kW charging, etc. is because Tesla concentrated on Models 3 & Y, which are big successes. Then they pivoted to CyberTruck, which has failed miserably for reasons we all know.

I terminated my Model X lease early because the car's build quality sucked, and Gravity was out, and I was willing to tolerate software bugs for a while. I have friends with Model Ys, and their build quality is much better, FWIW. We really like out Gravity when the bugs don't frustrate us.

This is good news for Lucid, but at some point FSD/Robotaxis are going to be real and good enough and the personally owned vehicle market will change. Tony Seba had a number of videos about this: he was as wrong as Musk on timing, but I think they're both directionally correct. That Lucid is leveraging Nvidia for autonomy is a good thing, and hopefully keeps their cars relevant for the next 5-7 years. I think Lucid will have to stay at the higher end of the market, as the low end will be most using robotaxis because for them it's just cheaper than owning, maintaining, and insuring a vehicle. I would have loved to take a robotaxi to/from work every day instead of driving, and I know other execs who used Ubers for their commutes precisely because that gave them an extra hour (½ hour each way) of time for emails instead of being at work or working after dinner at home.

Thanks to AI growth, IBM main frame business is still relevant. Last Q4, its revenue is up 21%. It needs software to run and its revenue is up 14%.

It can't compete with cheap personal computers but governments (my guess that includes the huge growth in funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement too), banking, weather models, and business... still need quick real time data (credit card transaction approval...) and they are willing to pay big money in return.

IBM RELEASES FOURTH-QUARTER RESULTS

IBM today announced fourth-quarter 2025 earnings results.

newsroom.ibm.com

 

[borski]

Waymo's fleet is about 2500 vehicles total after more than 5 years.

Waymo is not constrained by supply; they were constrained by trying to get it right.

 

[Smorgasbord]

Waymo is not constrained by supply; they were constrained by trying to get it right.

Waymo remains constrained by the vehicles available to them. Limited number of iPaces since Jag discontinued them, then they went for Zeekr. But, tariffs on Chinese cars made those too expensive, so they pivoted to Hyundais.

They also knew they wanted to start slow since the cars are expensive to modify. They’ve been simplifying the sensor suite with each iteration, trying to get the cost down.

If they could have done so affordably, they’d rather today be running more than just a couple hundred cars in Austin, and only 100 cars in Atlanta. They have so few cars available that they had to partner with Uber so wait times wouldn’t be crazy long.

 

[tmichael]

This thread has moved off of the S/X topic, so I'm going to join as we speak about Waymo and Uber.

I still enjoy driving, so I am not sorry autonomy hasn't become mainstream - yet. The "yet" part is when I am too old to safely drive to dinner or a baseball game or a medical appointment. Then I'll need someone or something to assist.

I don't want a Waymo or Uber or a car that just transported a hairy dog to the vet. I want it to be my own car, which I periodically wash, vacuum and have my sunglasses and snacks in their normal places.

I see apartment and urban dwellers not needing a car, being able to walk and take short rides to get where they need to go. But for me, I plan to live in the suburbs of Detroit as I do now. I'll need to have a car to get to where I want to go - and, I'll want it to be my car, in my favorite color with my favorite tunes and my lemon drops stuck in the console, right where they always are.

 

[FirstLucidFL]

Think about IBM moving away from mainframes. Better than DEC stick with midis and company folding.
Think about Netflix moving away from DVD rentals. Better than Blockbuster.
Think about Nintendo moving away from playing cards to video games.

Tesla is moving from selling cars to selling transportation services. Will they be successful? Maybe, maybe not, but staying in the car making business with it's high capex and low margins and competition from China coming on strong would be a death sentence.


It's pretty clear that Tesla stopped innovating with Model X by 2019, and with Model S after plaid. That neither car has rear wheel steering, 400kW charging, etc. is because Tesla concentrated on Models 3 & Y, which are big successes. Then they pivoted to CyberTruck, which has failed miserably for reasons we all know.

I terminated my Model X lease early because the car's build quality sucked, and Gravity was out, and I was willing to tolerate software bugs for a while. I have friends with Model Ys, and their build quality is much better, FWIW. We really like out Gravity when the bugs don't frustrate us.

This is good news for Lucid, but at some point FSD/Robotaxis are going to be real and good enough and the personally owned vehicle market will change. Tony Seba had a number of videos about this: he was as wrong as Musk on timing, but I think they're both directionally correct. That Lucid is leveraging Nvidia for autonomy is a good thing, and hopefully keeps their cars relevant for the next 5-7 years. I think Lucid will have to stay at the higher end of the market, as the low end will be most using robotaxis because for them it's just cheaper than owning, maintaining, and insuring a vehicle. I would have loved to take a robotaxi to/from work every day instead of driving, and I know other execs who used Ubers for their commutes precisely because that gave them an extra hour (½ hour each way) of time for emails instead of being at work or working after dinner at home.

Fantastic unbiased take.

 

[gaskiller]

Wonder what he will do once other humanoids become better than his, work on a Time Machine or Worm hole?

Wow! I am surprised. As a former Model X owner, this is a sad day. Having said that, I kind of get it. Robotics, autonomous driving, AI —— that’s where money is. Car business is low margins cutthroat.

This is good news for Rivian and Lucid here In US. And the Europeans. Volvo EX60, BMW iX3, and MB GLC electric are fantastic on brand new platforms.

RIP

money? That’s all just hype for now. How many people would be ok to lend their car out as a robotaxi for someone else to puke in, and who cleans it? Musk puts out a lot of nonsense. He just got bored making cars…..simple as that!

 

[gaskiller]

That’s where the hype and investment is. It is not clear, at all, that that will be where the money is.

Tesla has moved into its full-hype stage, which will go exactly one of two ways:
1) Everyone has an Optimus in their home, Tesla licenses FSD to every manufacturer because nobody can catch up, and/or xAI somehow overtakes every other large model, or,

2) The hype train eventually stops and people don’t have an Optimus in their home and other ADAS does catch up, and xAI becomes “yet another model” which is the far more likely scenario, so they’ll have to try and differentiate via services, which is what OpenAI is trying to do now.

My bet is on 2.

Yeah, and then he will pivot to something else….he is not as smart as people make him out to be. Not a good CEO, just a hype monster going nuts on ketamine.

 

[gaskiller]

Not a surprise at all - Musk said they were still building the vehicles "for sentimental reasons" on an ER call back in 2019, and last June/July Tesla stopped selling the vehicles in Europe. When you look at the paltry changes to Model X on this last "refresh," it sure seems half-hearted. Adtually, quarter-hearted.

That Tesla is converting the old Model S&X assembly lines into Optimus assembly lines tells you all you need to know about where the company is headed.

Do note that FSD sales/subscriptions were up like 38% while cumulative sales were up only 20% - so more Tesla owners are getting on board with FSD.

Also note Tesla is up to 500 robotaxi vehicles, now some with no drivers, no safety monitors and even some with no chase cars. Waymo's fleet is about 2500 vehicles total after more than 5 years.

He took away autopilot, pissing of his customers, not many is going to pat $100 a month for that.

 

[gaskiller]

Numbers of vehicles is a bad way to compare. None of the "Robotaxi" vehicles in California are actually robotaxis. Tesla hasn't even bothered applying for the permits they'd need in California. They did get a testing permit, but they've never used it, presumably because they don't want to publish the data that would be required. But they are forced to publish some data from Austin, and that makes it clear that they're getting into accidents (even with human supervisors) much more frequently that is acceptable. They're at a point where individual drives are usually uneventful, but that's a far cry from the safety level needed. The only other available dataset for FSD is the crowdsourced intervention data (which Musk in the past has acknowledged is fairly accurate), and that doesn't show anywhere close to the improvement needed for true autonomy. At this point I'd far prefer to get into a Waymo over FSD without human supervision.

Here is a test- would you put your kids in a Musk or a Waymo robotaxi? Only the fanboys will say Tesla. Any sane person would chose Waymo. Simple as that!

 

[BrianBigNFun]

View attachment 36472

LOL on the Roadster, ain't never coming out- Elon has totally screwed over EV influencers that should be getting free ones

 

[Spaceship]

Unlike most, I do think this is a sad day and do not see much cause for celebration. We can all feel how we want about Elon and Tesla currently, but vehicle electrification would not be where it is today where it not for the Model S. While the writing has been on the wall for a while, I was hoping the delay in any significant update meant we were getting new versions of the S and X, not just having them axed altogether. Competition is always good and it helps drive the market forward. Again, hate them or not, Tesla has heralded a lot of what the electric vehicle market is today - for worse and for better.

I do not wish for Tesla to pivot away entirely from manufacturing vehicles and really hope someone over there can keep the engineering and automotive aspect of the company alive. A new S and X with better battery management, 800v architecture, RWS, massaging seats, HUD, etc. would be very welcomed, though I do think this is the end of that line. This forum seems to think Lucid will take over the mantle, and while I do hope this is true, I do think this is several years away if Lucid is able to make it work. They are still way too behind on software and unknown to most people. I hope they figure it out for the market as a whole, as I do think the end of the S and X is a really bad sign for the EV market altogether, specially here in America where other big names like F150 Lightning have also folded.

 

[Saksak]

Model S and Model X sales stagnated because there was no innovation and improvement. I still have my 2016 Model X (with stalk, buttons, radar, and sonar). I kept waiting, and waiting, and waiting for a significant Model X refresh. I test drove the 2026 Model X, almost bought it for FSD, but it was essentially the same as my 2016 (smoother and quieter, but that was it). Then came the Gravity which blew it out of the water. Imagine if Tesla came up with the Air and Gravity, with a next generation Y based on that platform on the horizon.

This is good news for Lucid, but at some point FSD/Robotaxis are going to be real and good enough and the personally owned vehicle market will change. […] I would have loved to take a robotaxi to/from work every day instead of driving, and I know other execs who used Ubers for their commutes precisely because that gave them an extra hour (½ hour each way) of time for emails instead of being at work or working after dinner at home.

100% agree. Level 3 autonomy will give us the benefit being able to work/play during our commutes/rides, plus have our own personal cars. Tesla FSD has shown us it’s possible, and Lucid + Nvidia (and other car manufacturers) will get there.

Waymo and Zoox are already at Level 4 (limited to cities for now, but you can bet highway is coming), with Uber entering the market. Lucid is working on Level 4 with partnerships. Perhaps personally owned level 3/4 vehicles will be a luxury item vs. a robotaxis service, but that market segment will exist.

The Model X and S were low volume and profit, but they were the top of the line flagship products to lead with to showcase best in class that everyone talks about. It created branding and image. This generates interest in the next tier commodity products and the real money makers.

Who is going to care about the Model Y when the best in class is the Lucid Air and Gravity and Lucid launches a Model Y competitor based on their luxury platform with potentially level 4 autonomy? Where will Tesla get their profits to drive their robot initiative? We’ll see if Tesla can pivot from cars to robots fast enough. The Tesla brand has taken significant damage on multiple fronts.

 

[Northpointe]

The Model S was ahead of its time when it came to market. And the Model X was a revolution in the SUV space. But the world has caught up. Tesla lost the goodwill of its owners by breaking its promises, failing to meet owner expectations as they scaled, and the behavior of its CEO. And anyone that acknowledges this finds themselves on the receiving end of Musk’s disdain. It’s like a Seinfeld episode where cars are substituted for soup.

But on the bright side, this now frees up Elon to double down on the success of The Boring Company.

 

[martinjlm]

I spent most of my career with an automaker in the area of product portfolio planning. What to make, when and where to make it, when to refresh it, when to let it die. How much to commit in the way of resources (R&D, capital, engineering and design talent and their requisite costs). As such I've been involved in the path to market for countless vehicles and planning the demise of just as many as well as (5) vehicle brands and more engine and transmission programs than I feel like counting right now. With that backdrop I can say this about the impending demise of Model S and Model X...

• I'm surprised they're still here at all. And based on sales over the past several years, so is much of the car buying public. Plaid can only take you so far.
• Part of the reason sales have been so abysmal over the past several years is they have done absolutely nothing to keep the models fresh. One fascia upgrade and some interior light tweaks? They weren't even trying. Possibly because they've planned to exit them for quite some time?
• Given the poor sales and lack of refresh and the lack of discussion of anything to replace either, it is clear that Tesla has for quite some time considered the lux sedan and lux crossover segments as not worth pursuing. The surprising thing is that they have not redirected resources to venture into other untapped segments, luxury or mainstream. Ok...robotaxi.
• @Spaceship has identified a number of ways Tesla could have kept the vehicles fresh "better battery management, 800v architecture, RWS, massaging seats, HUD, etc. " but they didn't. If they were truly concerned about slumping sales, there was plenty of low hanging fruit to pluck. They didn't. That indicates to me that they had already moved on years ago. That or it solidifies the idea that Tesla viewed them as "rolling software containers" and only focused on change through software.

To me the biggest surprise is Tesla does not appear to have a plan for filling the holes in the portfolio left by these two vehicles exiting. Model 3 and Model Y are great volume levers but they leave nowhere to go for Tesla customers who want "what's next". At some point everyone who wants a Model 3 or a Model Y will have one. But then what? No aspirational vehicles, no "next life-stage" vehicles, no "my personal toy" vehicles to help balance out the portfolio.

Maybe that's "traditional automaker-think" on my part but when I look at the areas of focus of newer EV launches, I think not.

 

[thyname]

That’s where the hype and investment is. It is not clear, at all, that that will be where the money is.

money? That’s all just hype for now.

Oh.... actual money is for sure in those things right now. In huge amounts, capital spending, infrastructure, and even super inflated stock prices. Money as in "amounts being thrown in spades in those things", and investment = money. Real money. Is it hype? of course! and a huge bubble if you ask me. It won't end well. You are right about that, and I agree with you fully.