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"Lucid Ramping up Deliveries"

borski said:
Based on literally that metric: “Model S / Model X sales”

(It’s true, look it up. We’re not talking about 3/Y here, as that’s a totally different price category and thus not comparable)

Tesla increasingly grouped S/X (and Cybertruck/Semi) into an "other models" category, making exact figures harder to track, but indicating low volumes (e.g., under 50k globally in 2024).
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Gotcha.

Tesla gave me an S Performance for a loner once, I was so unimpressed by the build quality I was kinda shocked. It was exactly like my 3. I literally was disappointed.

First time I sat in an Air I went holy shit this is amazing. Wow.

If they can pull that off with the midsize, it could cement their future.
 
The_Don said:
borski said:
MJAir23TheGoat said:
Seems to be some real Tesla haters in these parts….. not sure if it’s bitterness that Lucid hasn’t lived up to expectations over the last five years or just EDS in general. I mean, the guy barely owns over 10% of the company.
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Based on literally that metric: “Model S / Model X sales”

(It’s true, look it up. We’re not talking about 3/Y here, as that’s a totally different price category and thus not comparable)

Tesla increasingly grouped S/X (and Cybertruck/Semi) into an "other models" category, making exact figures harder to track, but indicating low volumes (e.g., under 50k globally in 2024).
Click to expand...

Air, and soon Gravity, are outpacing Model S / Model X sales, so no, the market is not showing they want Tesla's cars more than Lucid's. Tesla stock has been operating in fantasy land for the past few years, so don't think comparing the two on that front makes sense, especially considering where each company stands in its lifecycle.
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I owned 5 Teslas over 13 years. I had one of the first 1000 Model S cars off the Fremont line. I also invested in their IPO at $12/share and bought my house with their crazy stock rise. I appreciate fully their contribution to the EV wave.

But the truth is their car quality is not great. Tons of build quality issues since day -, but also software issues galore early on. Even my most recent 2020 and 2021 model X and S had battery failures and bricked car issues. Same with our Model 3, although I admit the 3 and Y are better build quality than S or X. Sales are dropping YoY for two years in a row?! That’s not good.

Tesla has become the ubiquitous Prius of the Bay Area because of their software lead. But that won’t last for much longer, and the hardware is still suspect IMO. I would not be shocked if Tesla is not primarily a car company 5 years from now, but rather licensing software and selling robots. Let’s see what happens!!
 
Smorgasbord said:
Even if Lucid reaches their design goal of 90,000 Gravitys per year, that's still over $11,000 per vehicle in cost before factoring in materials, supplies, running overhead, salaries, support, warranty work, etc.
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This is the same fallacy as was levied towards Tesla in the Tesla Death Watch, $TSLAQ days.

You do not ever amortize the capex of a factory over just one year of production. 90000 vehicles at $11000 (from your argument) is $990,000,000, the $1 Billion you were positing.

Same with capex spent on studios or service centers.

I am sorry, but the moment an argument like this is made, you've lost your argument.
 
johnse said:
You do not ever amortize the capex of a factory over just one year of production. 90000 vehicles at $11000 (from your argument) is $990,000,000, the $1 Billion you were positing.
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That's true, but 90K/year still isn't that many and even spread over 5 years that's still over $2200/vehicle - not including any running costs. Tesla's in 2018 was 245k, and in 2019 it was 367k.

Lucid has plans to expand the Arizona plant from the 90k/year capacity to 400k/years. Just as the expansion to 90k was for the Gravity model, I suspect further expansions will be for the Earth model - although I've read initialy plans were to build those in Saudi Arabia, but that may have changed with tariffs and such. At any rate, each of these expansions adds to the Capex.

And there's still operatings costs and materials/suppliers as well. It took Tesla years of Model 3 and Y to get to profitability - Earth will have to be a big success for Lucid to reach that.
 
Smorgasbord said:
That's true, but 90K/year still isn't that many and even spread over 5 years that's still over $2200/vehicle - not including any running costs. Tesla's in 2018 was 245k, and in 2019 it was 367k.

Lucid has plans to expand the Arizona plant from the 90k/year capacity to 400k/years. Just as the expansion to 90k was for the Gravity model, I suspect further expansions will be for the Earth model - although I've read initialy plans were to build those in Saudi Arabia, but that may have changed with tariffs and such. At any rate, each of these expansions adds to the Capex.

And there's still operatings costs and materials/suppliers as well. It took Tesla years of Model 3 and Y to get to profitability - Earth will have to be a big success for Lucid to reach that.
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It will certainly take time to reach profitablity. But even 5 years is too short for cost accounting to the individual cars. Normal useful life of the more expensive parts of the plant rang from 10-15 years for industrial robots to 20-30 years for stamping presses. (According to quick searches.)

It took Tesla getting to 3 & Y before they started turning profits. All the while the Shorts were claiming Tesla was burning money. All car companies spend large amounts to build factories...that's what it takes.
 
MJAir23TheGoat said:
Seems to be some real Tesla haters in these parts….. not sure if it’s bitterness that Lucid hasn’t lived up to expectations over the last five years or just EDS in general. I mean, the guy barely owns over 10% of the company.
Click to expand...

I just didn't want to support Tesla anymore when it became evident to me that Elon is a Bond villain
 
I have driven every model Tesla makes from the 3 to Y to S to the cybertruck. They have cheap interiors. The suspension feels like a budget car. The brakes are underpowered for all models and dangerous for a model S and X. The screens would turn off or freeze and you had to use the two button reset while driving. It took them over a decade to fix all the software issues and get where they are. The whole time, the stock kept rising.

Why is this so different for lucid?
 
Honestly, I think all the conversation here about Lucid stock is pretty superficial (same for the Tesla comments). I think most people would recognize that Lucid is still trying to get through the death zone of moving from small to large volume production. Obviously if their execution doesnt go well, their stock is going to suffer, possibly becoming completely worthless. So if you're an investor (I am not), you really need to crunch the numbers and try to decide whether the success scenarios have enough upside (and likelihood) to compensate current owners for the very high idiosyncratic risks that a company like Lucid faces. Assuming one buys into modern finance theory, the explanation for Lucid's stock price woes is quite simple: the risk of failure warrants a high discount on future earnings to compensate investors for the risk they're taking. The stock price is unlikely to get better until we learn information about their execution that reasonably reduces their odds of failure. I don't see that occurring until the end of the year at the earliest, and next year may be more likely.
 
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