"Lucid Ramping up Deliveries"

[socktucker]

If you haven't tried it since Dec 1, 2025, you don't know what it's truly capable of.

Cancelled it January, its better than ever, but still easily confused and annoying.

 

[joec]

I never thought I would buy TSLA stock, but when it dipped to $200, I went in. This is constantly debated among the analysts, how should Tesla be viewed, are they an auto mfg or a tech company who also does autos? I think there is a ton of opportunity for them, from an energy perspective, battery storage, and I hadn't even thought about it until now, but what if they start pushing out "skateboards" with drivetrains/battery packs that have integrated ADAS for Ford or GM to drop frames on? That is what Lucid is marketing so we have to consider Tesla can enter that market at any point

What if magical fairies start farting lollipops made of gold?

We can do “what if” all day about just about any company. What matters is what they deliver.

And Tesla has delivered bubkis for well going on two years now.

What auto manufacturer is going to want to get in bed with Tesla as a supply partner? A company that famously cancels contracts on a whim and doesn’t pay its bills?

If Apple had a flop half the size of Cybertruck, they would be at half their value right now. Tesla just says “robots!” and everyone just keeps buying.

You want to believe their fortunes are going to somehow change for the better in the next few years? Go for it.

Hanging around for a while because it’s likely people will perpetuate this illusion a bit longer? Sure. That’s actually likely.

The stock will keep going up for a while. That much is clear. But sooner or later, it’s time to pay the piper.

I ain’t buying it long term.

A huge bet Tesla is making is that FSD will be so good you’ll want to have your car doing Uber duty while you sit at work all day. Really? I’m going to earn a few hundred bucks a month letting strangers barf in my car? On what planet?

Don’t get me stared on what the difference in insurance cost is going to be. That alone will eat all your profit.

Uber has a decade head start on taxi service brand recognition. They are literally the verb in the industry. “Let’s Uber it.”

Their app is already on everyone’s phone.

They are investing not just in Lucid, but with several other manufacturers to build a fleet of robotaxis. They don’t have to depend on one company. There are dozens begging for the opportunity.

They will be covering the Bay Area before year’s end. Tesla won’t even be started here by then.

Game over.

Uber is in a much better position to dominate the field. Yes, there’s Waymo. There’s Zoox. There’s any other number of competitors people would rather give their money to. I’d be surprised if Tesla turns a profit, let alone takes out every single one of those competitors. And even then, they won’t put a dent in Uber.

But hey. I can be wrong. Let’s see how it shakes out in about four years. By then, my guess is Tesla will be trying to get you to forget they ever wanted to be in the Robotaxi business.

 

[socktucker]

A huge bet Tesla is making is that FSD will be so good you’ll want to have your car doing Uber duty while you sit at work all day. Really? I’m going to earn a few hundred bucks a month letting strangers barf in my car? On what planet?

 

[The_Don]

If you haven't tried it since Dec 1, 2025, you don't know what it's truly capable of.

I actually just lost a bet. I bet a friend, this was about a year ago that FSD would not be able to drive between our houses both ways by August 2026. We don't live far apart, but I live in the Santa Cruz Mountains above Silicon Valley, and have narrow, twisty roads with no centerline and even no edge lines. Previous versions of FSD would do things like drive off the road (no edge line) or drive the two-way road on the left (no center line), or have trouble with switchbacks where it couldn't see the pavement up around a bend, etc.

But last week, we did that drive without an issue. It even parked the car in the right spot on my driveway. I didn't think Tesla would make that kind of progress that quickly, especially for these roads, which I assume aren't a priority for Tesla compared to city, urban and rural streets. I was wrong, and now happy to have been wrong.

Even my wife, who is disgusted with Elon and has hated FSD was really impressed and actually starting talking an elderly neighbor into getting a Tesla for his next car so he could drive with FSD safely.

We'll see if the Nvidia AGX system in the Gravity that gets activated later this year (maybe) is as good an L2++ system as FSD.

FSD is very impressive, but I think their insistence on vision-only will come back to bite them. Lack of redundancy will make regulatory approval of true L4 difficult to obtain.

 

[Smorgasbord]

Lack of redundancy will make regulatory approval of true L4 difficult to obtain.

"Redundancy" is actually not specified in SAE J3016, even for Level 4. What is specified is that the vehicle performs a "DDT Fallback" to achieve a "minimal risk condition" in the event of any failure in the ADS (Automated Driving System):

At Levels 4 and 5, the ADS must be capable of performing the DDT fallback and achieving a minimal risk condition....While a Level 4 or 5 ADS is performing the DDT fallback, it may be limited by design in speed and/or range of lateral and/or longitudinal vehicle motion control

The SAE spec includes an example:

EXAMPLE 3: A Level 4 ADS-dedicated vehicle (ADS-DV) that performs the entire DDT within a geo-fenced city center experiences a DDT performance-relevant system failure. In response, the ADS-DV performs the DDT fallback by turning on the hazard flashers, maneuvering the vehicle to the road shoulder and parking it, before automatically summoning emergency assistance (see Figure 7). (Note that in this example, the ADS-DV automatically achieves a minimal risk condition.)

So, for instance, if the cameras' field of view overlaps, then failure of one camera can allow the fallback to be performed. If one of the two GPUs fails, the other can perform the fallback. And etc.

Right now, we don't know the level of redundancy built into the CyberCab, which is presumably the vehicle Tesla will use when applying for Robotaxi permits. However, if they use existing Model Ys, we have a pretty good idea. At any rate, I'd be surprised if Tesla engineers don't have a good idea what the regulators are looking for and haven't accounted for that. Possible, but not likely IMO.

 

[gaskiller]

Not sure why anyone owns it, growth is limited and S&P has greater gains (50% higher) and less volatility over the last 5 years.
Of course Musk will probably IPO Space X and xAI. Then combine them with Tesla to meet the equity requirements for his stock awards. Not sure where valuations will fall once the dust settles (combined companies, with award dilution). Stockholders may win or may lose but he will walk away a trillionaire.

Earnings- Space just spends billions, no earnings. The same scam Musk pulls with Tesla. Hype and lies. He said 10 million cars a year by 2020, now he says robotics, tomorrow he will say something else. He is just a scamster, though I give him credit for his vision. Not for his lies and deceit.

 

[gaskiller]

If you haven't tried it since Dec 1, 2025, you don't know what it's truly capable of.

I actually just lost a bet. I bet a friend, this was about a year ago that FSD would not be able to drive between our houses both ways by August 2026. We don't live far apart, but I live in the Santa Cruz Mountains above Silicon Valley, and have narrow, twisty roads with no centerline and even no edge lines. Previous versions of FSD would do things like drive off the road (no edge line) or drive the two-way road on the left (no center line), or have trouble with switchbacks where it couldn't see the pavement up around a bend, etc.

But last week, we did that drive without an issue. It even parked the car in the right spot on my driveway. I didn't think Tesla would make that kind of progress that quickly, especially for these roads, which I assume aren't a priority for Tesla compared to city, urban and rural streets. I was wrong, and now happy to have been wrong.

Even my wife, who is disgusted with Elon and has hated FSD was really impressed and actually starting talking an elderly neighbor into getting a Tesla for his next car so he could drive with FSD safely.

We'll see if the Nvidia AGX system in the Gravity that gets activated later this year (maybe) is as good an L2++ system as FSD.

FSD is not safe, you still need to pay attention. No redundancy is a big warning that safety is not a priotity. Other companies will catch up pretty fast with NVIDIA. Same thing will happen as with EVs...Tesla will lose its shine.

 

[Smorgasbord]

They will be covering the Bay Area before year’s end. Tesla won’t even be started here by then.

Actually, Tesla is already in step 1 of the CPUC's robotaxi approval process:

1) AV Testing Permit with Driver (no paid fares)
2) Driverless AV Testing Permit (no paid fares)
3) Driverless AV Deployment Permit (paid fares allowed)

Tesla got approval for 1) in September. Lucid/Nuro/Ubert don't even have a vehicle yet, much less have applied for the AV Testing Permit. Sounds like the vehicle might be ready by year's end, at which point #1 starts. They're not going to make year's end, at least not this year.

 

[gaskiller]

What if magical fairies start farting lollipops made of gold?

We can do “what if” all day about just about any company. What matters is what they deliver.

And Tesla has delivered bubkis for well going on two years now.

What auto manufacturer is going to want to get in bed with Tesla as a supply partner? A company that famously cancels contracts on a whim and doesn’t pay its bills?

If Apple had a flop half the size of Cybertruck, they would be at half their value right now. Tesla just says “robots!” and everyone just keeps buying.

You want to believe their fortunes are going to somehow change for the better in the next few years? Go for it.

Hanging around for a while because it’s likely people will perpetuate this illusion a bit longer? Sure. That’s actually likely.

The stock will keep going up for a while. That much is clear. But sooner or later, it’s time to pay the piper.

I ain’t buying it long term.

A huge bet Tesla is making is that FSD will be so good you’ll want to have your car doing Uber duty while you sit at work all day. Really? I’m going to earn a few hundred bucks a month letting strangers barf in my car? On what planet?

Don’t get me stared on what the difference in insurance cost is going to be. That alone will eat all your profit.

Uber has a decade head start on taxi service brand recognition. They are literally the verb in the industry. “Let’s Uber it.”

Their app is already on everyone’s phone.

They are investing not just in Lucid, but with several other manufacturers to build a fleet of robotaxis. They don’t have to depend on one company. There are dozens begging for the opportunity.

They will be covering the Bay Area before year’s end. Tesla won’t even be started here by then.

Game over.

Uber is in a much better position to dominate the field. Yes, there’s Waymo. There’s Zoox. There’s any other number of competitors people would rather give their money to. I’d be surprised if Tesla turns a profit, let alone takes out every single one of those competitors. And even then, they won’t put a dent in Uber.

But hey. I can be wrong. Let’s see how it shakes out in about four years. By then, my guess is Tesla will be trying to get you to forget they ever wanted to be in the Robotaxi business.

Agree, why would you let strangers fart and puke in your car. All that business about your car can earn money is BS by Musk. And now he says you dont need to save for retirement....yeah, dont save, give billionaires all your money. Makes me laugh me when Musk say BS like that and tesla fanboys going googoo.....gaagaa

 

[Smorgasbord]

FSD is not safe, you still need to pay attention. No redundancy is a big warning that safety is not a priotity. Other companies will catch up pretty fast with NVIDIA. Same thing will happen as with EVs...Tesla will lose its shine.

We can argue about FSD safety all day. I know from my usage that it's safe and that it made me a safer driver - for instance, seeing pedestrians about to cross the road from behind parked vehicles well before I did.

You're right that as the driver you still need to pay attention - it's not yet perfect.

Tesla has redundancy all over the place: Redundant AI chips, overlapping cameras, backup power sources, etc. LiDAR and Radar can't replace cameras as they can't see lane lines, signs or traffic light states.

You have good point about the Nvidia Drive AGX system. With Mercedes being the first out of the gate at end of year, and Lucid following after that (it'll be interesting to see if Lucid prioritizes L2++ for Gravity or concentrates on the Nuro L4 system), and I'm sure other OEMs in the pipeline (we know Rivian uses Nvidia hardware already, so maybe they're already on Drive OS, coming to the R2).

I'll argue that Tesla lost its EV shine as Elon pivoted the company - prematurely - to autonomy and robotics, just like he pulled USS out of vehicles before the camera-based system (software and hardware as it turns out) was ready. That's a problem, but not indicative that Tesla can't compete when it puts its collective mind to it.

At any rate, these next couple years are going to be interesting from an autonomy point of view.

 

[LVAGT]

Except people don't want it. I've had it.

Noooo, it hurts me to even admit it, but dude, FSD 14.+ is legit. It drove me to Socal from Vegas with barely any intervention, more of just getting into the right supercharger. It was actually incredible. Rent one out with FSD 14+ to try, you will know what I mean. I was just like you before the 14+ update, a literal trash.

 

[LVAGT]

We can argue about FSD safety all day. I know from my usage that it's safe and that it made me a safer driver - for instance, seeing pedestrians about to cross the road from behind parked vehicles well before I did.

Well said! I was proven wrong and happily being wrong by the new FSD, too. It drove safer than most people on the street, believe it or not. After a month in the FSD 14+, I can't even imagine myself driving without one, and thinking how the hell are those kids going to learn how to drive in the future. I just get on my car, put in the navigation, and it did all the work. The progress is insane in the past 2 years; however, Tesla stock itself is most definitely still overvalued.

 

[HC_79]

Can we get back on topic. There’s plenty of other posts to talk about ADAS/DDPro/FSD.

 

[joec]

Can we get back on topic. There’s plenty of other posts to talk about ADAS/DDPro/FSD.

Good point. My bad.

Is there any new news lately on deliveries? Are we close to Lunar Titanium being released? Is the factory still producing Touring cars that don’t necessarily have orders associated with them yet, or are they focusing on fulfilling existing orders?

Feels like it’s been quiet on that front for a while.

 

[Adnillien]

Good point. My bad.

Is there any new news lately on deliveries? Are we close to Lunar Titanium being released? Is the factory still producing Touring cars that don’t necessarily have orders associated with them yet, or are they focusing on fulfilling existing orders?

Feels like it’s been quiet on that front for a while.

I will do a flyover on Lunar New Year to see if Lucid produced any Lunar Titanium for the celebration.

 

[The_Don]

My guess is production has fully ramped and can outpace deliveries. Once Lunar Titanium gets introduced, the conversation will shift towards deliveries. Hopefully they have a good Q1.

 

[socktucker]

Noooo, it hurts me to even admit it, but dude, FSD 14.+ is legit. It drove me to Socal from Vegas with barely any intervention, more of just getting into the right supercharger. It was actually incredible. Rent one out with FSD 14+ to try, you will know what I mean. I was just like you before the 14+ update, a literal trash.

I literally own 2. both with FSD.

 

[SaaSManKS]

What if magical fairies start farting lollipops made of gold?

We can do “what if” all day about just about any company. What matters is what they deliver.

And Tesla has delivered bubkis for well going on two years now.

What auto manufacturer is going to want to get in bed with Tesla as a supply partner? A company that famously cancels contracts on a whim and doesn’t pay its bills?

If Apple had a flop half the size of Cybertruck, they would be at half their value right now. Tesla just says “robots!” and everyone just keeps buying.

You want to believe their fortunes are going to somehow change for the better in the next few years? Go for it.

Hanging around for a while because it’s likely people will perpetuate this illusion a bit longer? Sure. That’s actually likely.

The stock will keep going up for a while. That much is clear. But sooner or later, it’s time to pay the piper.

I ain’t buying it long term.

A huge bet Tesla is making is that FSD will be so good you’ll want to have your car doing Uber duty while you sit at work all day. Really? I’m going to earn a few hundred bucks a month letting strangers barf in my car? On what planet?

Don’t get me stared on what the difference in insurance cost is going to be. That alone will eat all your profit.

Uber has a decade head start on taxi service brand recognition. They are literally the verb in the industry. “Let’s Uber it.”

Their app is already on everyone’s phone.

They are investing not just in Lucid, but with several other manufacturers to build a fleet of robotaxis. They don’t have to depend on one company. There are dozens begging for the opportunity.

They will be covering the Bay Area before year’s end. Tesla won’t even be started here by then.

Game over.

Uber is in a much better position to dominate the field. Yes, there’s Waymo. There’s Zoox. There’s any other number of competitors people would rather give their money to. I’d be surprised if Tesla turns a profit, let alone takes out every single one of those competitors. And even then, they won’t put a dent in Uber.

But hey. I can be wrong. Let’s see how it shakes out in about four years. By then, my guess is Tesla will be trying to get you to forget they ever wanted to be in the Robotaxi business.

you're limiting the scope of this to just ADAS, and I'm saying there is so much more that Tesla is well positioned for, my position has more than doubled since I got in, and I believe it will keep climbing. You can debate the why and what they do, but at the end of the day, more people are buying their cars than Lucids, they have more diversified portfolio of BU's they can earn business from and quicker than Lucid. Does Lucid make a better car? Debatable; would I trade misaligned panels for a more functional UI? Most def, but regardless of what you or I think, the market is showing they want Tesla stock and cars more than Lucid.

But I will take one of those lollipop's....

 

[sri]

What happened ,any news?

 

[HC_79]

What happened ,any news?