Anyone listened to Q3 2022 Earning call?

[ModelSToLucidAir]

I think the market was looking for some guidance on deliveries in 2023. The market probably noted that in the past the guidance was lowered from 20k to 14k to 7k and now no guidance at all but 34k reservations makes investors wonder how long it will take to meet the demand. I am investor with a few thousand shares and down whopping 58% from my avg cost 26.73. I have to wait perhaps till the end of 2024 at least to break even. What is scary is a lot of competition is coming by 24 and more will be announced in 23 and 24.

If you have a few thousand shares, I would hope you sell covered calls against them to get paid while you wait.

 

[DJL]

I'm surprised at the market reaction to Q3 report. It seems like Lucid did pretty much what it said it was going to do in Q3 and is on track for Q4 performance. I do wish that they would deliver MY AGT though

It failed to deliver the cars it produced so revenues badly missed projections. This really hurt them and the market reacted as one would expect.

 

[Tesla2.0]

Today tech sector has been hammer with FTX crypto exchange short fall of 8B withdrawal to its users. The China real estate market crashing is more manifesting its effect around the world. And the ongoing interest rake hike certainly not beneficial for luxury sector of its consumers who need loan.

On the other hand, I watched another Tesla YouTube channel, Elon has been selling 4B with of Tesla shares on 3 days… As market leader, that doesn’t help the EV sector speculation.

 

[HariK]

If you have a few thousand shares, I would hope you sell covered calls against them to get paid while you wait.

Yes. I am pretty savvy in option trades and made 100k in 2022 on option trades. I sell covered calls above my cost on a day it spikes and buy back on a day it crashes. I did that with LCID a few times already buddy.

 

[ModelSToLucidAir]

Yes. I am pretty savvy in option trades and made 100k in 2022 on option trades. I sell covered calls above my cost on a day it spikes and buy back on a day it crashes. I did that with LCID a few times already buddy.

What do you do with options now that the stock is 50% below your cost?

 

[HariK]

What do you do with options now that the stock is 50% below your cost?

I have no options outstanding on LCID. I plan to wait till the end of 24 and see what happens because I do believe in the quality and technology of lucid. It is a problem of execution. Also a problem with lack of guidance. I have very high regard for the technical competence of Rawlinson but I think it is fine for him to be Chairman and cto and let someone very strong in operations in the automotive sector be the ceo. 2.5 weeks of shut down was a disaster. Setting unreal goals boosted the stock price to begin with and the execution made it worse. By the end of 2024 LCID could be a take over candidate if they cannot meet the demand.

 

[bhramabull]

Good points and I do feel with the launch of Gravity and these Touring and Pure ramp ups are going to help the case. I do agree with the sentiment of good product but super-bad timing with all the chaos during these past Covid years! I suppose just keep DCA down so we can all be profit sometime soon. Think the tech sector taking a hammering today was more-so coz of Elon selling those $3.95B worth of Tesla shares.

 

[Tesla2.0]

Good points and I do feel with the launch of Gravity and these Touring and Pure ramp ups are going to help the case. I do agree with the sentiment of good product but super-bad timing with all the chaos during these past Covid years! I suppose just keep DCA down so we can all be profit sometime soon. Think the tech sector taking a hammering today was more-so coz of Elon selling those $3.95B worth of Tesla shares.

When Elon needed cash, he and his brother are offloading TSLA.

He can use Twitter or force to pay tax as narative excuses. But in fact, he is just merely diversifying his risk. With so much competition is coming in 2023~2024, he cannot really expect Tesla’s ultimate goal is making 20M cars a year.(Another bodacious claim like the FSD) That would be twice of what Toyota makes in a good year of 10.5M. Elon is a child, he can say whatever he want or sell/buy whatever he wants. It’s his money, he earned it.

 

[MoniputerLM]

When Elon needed cash, he and his brother are offloading TSLA.

He can use Twitter or force to pay tax as narative excuses. But in fact, he is just merely diversifying his risk. With so much competition is coming in 2023~2024, he cannot really expect Tesla’s ultimate goal is making 20M cars a year.(Another bodacious claim like the FSD) That would be twice of what Toyota makes in a good year of 10.5M. Elon is a child, he can say whatever he want or sell/buy whatever he wants. It’s his money, he earned it.

"Amid supply chain constraints and production delays in China, Tesla reported that it earned a $3.3 billion profit in the first quarter of 2022".

As of October 2022, Tesla, the Texas-based EV automaker, has sold more than 3 million units on a global scale.

"Toyota Motor Corp.'s quarterly profit through September totaled 434 billion yen, or $2.9 billion, down from nearly 627 billion yen a year earlier."

2022 Q1

• Toyota: 450,227 (down 14.9%)
• Lexus: 64,365 (down 13.3%)
• Total: 514,592 (down 14.7%)

I am not a Musk fan, but Telsa is doing something right.

 

[Tesla2.0]

"Amid supply chain constraints and production delays in China, Tesla reported that it earned a $3.3 billion profit in the first quarter of 2022".

As of October 2022, Tesla, the Texas-based EV automaker, has sold more than 3 million units on a global scale.

"Toyota Motor Corp.'s quarterly profit through September totaled 434 billion yen, or $2.9 billion, down from nearly 627 billion yen a year earlier."

2022 Q1

• Toyota: 450,227 (down 14.9%)
• Lexus: 64,365 (down 13.3%)
• Total: 514,592 (down 14.7%)

I am not a Musk fan, but Telsa is doing something right.

I don’t mean to discredit Musk’s achievements. In fact pretty awesome that he had done many things right and put us in this electrification path.

What I mean is he often aim too high and sometimes too intentionally misleading to his fan base on false hope as creating bubble. Famous lines such as “FSD will be ready end of this year.” From 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022… Or “CyberTruck is coming”, 2020, 2921, 2022, 2023... “Tesla will make $25k priced car”, “Optimus Robot can be for sale for under $20k”

We need dreamers to push boundaries of society, but it is very bold claim Tesla has goal of manufacturing 20 million electric cars a year by 2030, up from the just under the 1 million vehicles it produced in 2021. The Shanghai upgrade alone doubled the plant's annual capacity to about 1 million units. Now China Covid lock down, Chinese people are buying cheaper knockoffs and other Chinese brand autonomous driving is ahead of FSD, now what? Tesla still have 7 more years to knock down Toyota, king of car sales. Elon needs to make 1 Gigafactory every 1.5 years to have that capacity. Too optimistic assuming no recession ahead and everyone just roll over play dead and not to manufacture anymore.

 

[WildRide47]

If you have a few thousand shares, I would hope you sell covered calls against them to get paid while you wait.

He can't sell covered calls because the present share price is too far away from his buy price. The option price he would receive would be essentially worthless. Not unless his expiration date is very long term(1-2 years) would he be able to make some decent money.

Or unless he is willing to gamble and sell covered calls below his buy price would he be able to make some money. But then if the stock gets called he gets a loss on his original shares

 

[WildRide47]

Yes. I am pretty savvy in option trades and made 100k in 2022 on option trades. I sell covered calls above my cost on a day it spikes and buy back on a day it crashes. I did that with LCID a few times already buddy.

That works unless the stock continues to go up after your stock has been called. In that case you lose potentially a lot of upside.

In 2021 I bought 25,000 shares of LCID at 22 a share. I sold 250 call options for $2.50 with a strike price of 30 and an expiration date in Jan. 2022. My stock got called at 30 and I watched in horror as the stock continued to go up to the mid 50's. I kicked my self for selling the call options too soon. But as everybody knows the stock nosedived after that and I was afraid to buy the LCID stock back when I saw all the problems with production. My trade(after taxes) enabled me to buy my present AGT.

I am watching the stock closely and it is tempting at this price to buy some again, but I want to wait until I see some more progress on production.

 

[HariK]

That works unless the stock continues to go up after your stock has been called. In that case you lose potentially a lot of upside.

In 2021 I bought 25,000 shares of LCID at 22 a share. I sold 250 call options for $2.50 with a strike price of 30 and an expiration date in Jan. 2022. My stock got called at 30 and I watched in horror as the stock continued to go up to the mid 50's. I kicked my self for selling the call options too soon. But as everybody knows the stock nosedived after that and I was afraid to buy the LCID stock back when I saw all the problems with production. My trade(after taxes) enabled me to buy my present AGT.

I am watching the stock closely and it is tempting at this price to buy some again, but I want to wait until I see some more progress on production.

Yes. That can happen with call options. I usually trade options in stocks which move a lot but I believe in the long term. 99% of the time I may sell a covered call above my cost 4 to 6 months out on a spike and buy back on a dip.

 

[HariK]

He can't sell covered calls because the present share price is too far away from his buy price. The option price he would receive would be essentially worthless. Not unless his expiration date is very long term(1-2 years) would he be able to make some decent money.

Or unless he is willing to gamble and sell covered calls below his buy price would he be able to make some money. But then if the stock gets called he gets a loss on his original shares

I sold covered calls today above my cost for expiry in Jun 23 due to the spike up today. I plan to buy back on a dip and redo the trade as I did already a few times.

 

[WildRide47]

I sold covered calls today above my cost for expiry in Jun 23 due to the spike up today. I plan to buy back on a dip and redo the trade as I did already a few times.

Assuming there is a dip as the stock is at a pretty low point even after today.

What was your buy price that you were able to sell calls above your cost? It had to be pretty low in order for you to make some decent money on the call options.

 

[HariK]

Assuming there is a dip as the stock is at a pretty low point even after today.

What was your buy price that you were able to sell calls above your cost? It had to be pretty low in order for you to make some decent money on the call options.

So I have a non retirement account where my cost is 21. I sold calls strike 23 for March for 17 cents 95% chance of profit. In a retirement account my cost is 30 and I sold Jun calls strike 32 for 12 cents 98% chance of profit meaning not crossing 32. However all it takes is 1 day for LCID to dip 4% and I can buy back the calls. My cost of option trades is only 45 cents to open or close. I repeat these trades often. Option trades are really only for people who have time to move quickly and know the risks as you know. 52 week high was 57. I do not need to sell at a loss because I have enough cash to ride out the market for several years.

 

[WildRide47]

So I have a non retirement account where my cost is 21. I sold calls strike 23 for March for 17 cents 95% chance of profit. In a retirement account my cost is 30 and I sold Jun calls strike 32 for 12 cents 98% chance of profit meaning not crossing 32. However all it takes is 1 day for LCID to dip 4% and I can buy back the calls. My cost of option trades is only 45 cents to open or close. I repeat these trades often. Option trades are really only for people who have time to move quickly and know the risks as you know. 52 week high was 57. I do not need to sell at a loss because I have enough cash to ride out the market for several years.

The only way it is detrimental is if Lucid continues to go up past your buy price before your options expire which at this point in time is highly unlikely.

Even if that happens you still make a small profit.

By taking numerous small profits they add up to big profits. Sounds very reasonable.

As I mentioned previously, I bought CCIV(which later became LCID) at 22 and sold calls at 30 and then the price went to 57. However, I think you are pretty safe, as it is unlikely though possible for this to happen again before your expiration date.

Good trading strategy

 

[Tesla2.0]

So I have a non retirement account where my cost is 21. I sold calls strike 23 for March for 17 cents 95% chance of profit. In a retirement account my cost is 30 and I sold Jun calls strike 32 for 12 cents 98% chance of profit meaning not crossing 32. However all it takes is 1 day for LCID to dip 4% and I can buy back the calls. My cost of option trades is only 45 cents to open or close. I repeat these trades often. Option trades are really only for people who have time to move quickly and know the risks as you know. 52 week high was 57. I do not need to sell at a loss because I have enough cash to ride out the market for several years.

This strategy is basically very close to crypto staking.

 

[HariK]

The only way it is detrimental is if Lucid continues to go up past your buy price before your options expire which at this point in time is highly unlikely.

Even if that happens you still make a small profit.

By taking numerous small profits they add up to big profits. Sounds very reasonable.

As I mentioned previously, I bought CCIV(which later became LCID) at 22 and sold calls at 30 and then the price went to 57. However, I think you are pretty safe, as it is unlikely though possible for this to happen again before your expiration date.

Good trading strategy

Thank you. Even if I sell for small profit and LCID spikes above my call strike, I could sell puts immediately 30 days out and re enter.

 

[HariK]

This strategy is basically very close to crypto staking.

Hmm. No idea what that is.