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Great insights! Thank you! Did Air's future iterations get better based on the lessons learned so far? Also curious if you think a future model-year Air will be revised to simplify and follow a path similar to the midsize. I surely hope investment in the Air continues, as it is becoming one of the few options in this segment with Model S getting canned, for example. My 2024 Air Pure has been trouble-free, and we absolutely love it. I hope Lucid will find a way to keep the Air alive and make it more consistent. Very interested in your thoughts.
I don't know what Lucid has in store for the future of the Air.
I will repeat: I have no inside information on this matter.
I know what I'd like to see. And I know what would be smart from a business perspective. And those two things don't match.
What I'd love to see is a fully refreshed Air that shares its computer systems and wiring with Midsize, maybe even along with its screen layout. But otherwise, keep the size, the packaging, the incredible driving dynamics, the range, and the luxury of the current Air. Make it NACS while you're at it, and make sure it has Gravity's rear-motor up-voltage charging.
I'd like nothing more than to see exactly that, even if it's not for a few more years.
What would be smart from a business perspective, though, would be to discontinue the Air. Make the future all about Midsize.
Why? Because fixing what ails Air would essentially be a "clean-sheet" redesign. Maybe not quite that, but pretty close. Air is just too hard to build. Too hard to write software for. Too hard to maintain and service. So you'd have to start over. Otherwise, you are just kicking the can down the road, making slight improvements to a system that's never going to be easy or trouble-free.
A clean-sheet car costs about a billion dollars to develop. Lucid knows this. They've done it three times now.
Spending a billion dollars to sell maybe 6-10 thousand units a year best-case is not something you want to walk into a room and try to convince investors is a good idea.
Therefore, I think Air's days are numbered, unfortunately. It's the same reason why Model S was discontinued. And as much as I hated that decision, because the S was the one Tesla I actually thought was a good car, it was a smart business decision.
Where does that leave us Air enthusiasts?
Well, we'll get UX 3.0. We'll get a few more years of production in its current form, with maybe some minor improvements, color choices, etc. And we'll continue to get some ADAS improvements and other software fixes. But then once Midsize is well underway, I would not be surprised if the Air just gets quietly discontinued. It'll forever have a place in Lucid's heart, but it has no place in its profitable future.
That doesn't mean Lucid would be "abandoning" Air customers, by the way. This is just business. They'll support the Airs on the road for as long as is appropriate. They will just stop making new ones eventually.
Does that mean all hope is lost?
Well, here's my silver lining. Lucid does have the Midsize platform. And it is a platform. They already plan to make at least three different cars on that platform.
Why not a few more?
What if Lucid could make a midsize sedan? An M3 killer? An RS4 killer? Or maybe first a decent competitor to Model 3, and then add a "sport" version of that for people willing to pay?
This would not be a clean sheet. It would be a different body on an already well established platform. With almost zero overhead for new software. And an addressable market that's not huge, but is certainly bigger than Air's.
Spend a little more money. Sell a lot more cars. This makes business sense, perhaps? I don't know. I don't have the numbers in front of me.
But I could see that happening. Not for at least another four or five years. But it does make some sense.
I'd jump all over a super-high-end Midsize sedan. That's my dream Lucid, to be honest. Along with a roadster. (But that's another story.)
In the meantime, it's Gravity or Cosmos for me in the short term. Or one more Air before they let it go.
I'm sure Earth will be the best-seller. And Stay Tuned will likely be a niche off-roader. But if that niche proves successful, all the more reason to try a sedan next.
Or maybe I'm wrong, and an all-new Air will come along soon and blow all our minds? I wouldn't make that bet, though.