When Are We Seeing Cosmos?

[The_Don]

I feel like Lucid's approach to this launch is a bit of a head scratcher:

Outside of a few details and a silhouette shown at Lucid's investor day, we haven't really heard anything from Lucid on Cosmos. I don't doubt that they can start the production line at the end of this year or early next, so I'm a bit confused.

Looking at Rivian, Tesla, and even Lucid's past, it seems like the norm is to start hyping up the car at least a year before production commencement. We're approaching 6 months with no reveal in sight. I don't think most prospective customers know Lucid has an upcoming midsize vehicle, let alone that it's starting production as early as the end of this year.

I know traditional OEMs typically have tight launch to production timelines, but is that what they're looking to replicate? If I were to guess, any one of the following might be driving the later than usual reveal:

1) They want Cosmos software to be in good shape at reveal to quell the likely concerns about software.

2) They want Gravity software to be really good to avoid having that negative press tied to Cosmos.

3) OEMs (especially Chinese ones) have significantly reduced development timelines. They don't want to show their hand and have others quickly replicate their design/ideas.

Any other ideas?

 

[sri]

I suspect we may hear something in the next earnings “we will let you know the revised reveal date”.
Odd thing was Lucid said they are ahead of the schedule a little while ago.

 

[Need4Sleep]

I suspect we may hear something in the next earnings “we will let you know the revised reveal date”.
Odd thing was Lucid said they are ahead of the schedule a little while ago.

I don't recall Lucid saying they were ahead of schedule, but what I do remember from various interviews with Marc Winterhoff and Cory Steuben was that Lucid was either hitting/very close to their should-cost estimations or sometimes even beating them

 

[9point81]

Talking with one of their leaders at an owners event, they want to avoid what happened with Gravity launch in that they revealed early about the car but it went on sale much later (even tho it probably still shipped too early) so they plan on fully revealing Cosmos closer to actual release date.

 

[socktucker]

Talking with one of their leaders at an owners event, they want to avoid what happened with Gravity launch in that they revealed early about the car but it went on sale much later (even tho it probably still shipped too early) so they plan on fully revealing Cosmos closer to actual release date.

They said that about Gravity too

 

[Dolphins4ever]

I can’t believe that the people at Lucid equate marketing and generating both awareness and enthusiasm for your product with making and delivering a functional product, that is in inconceivable.

I too recall them saying as the OP stated that they are on schedule or maybe a little ahead and thought reveal with features and specs was imminent and possibly only delayed because the new ceo wants to get up to speed and all info releases are paused pending earlyish July.

 

[9point81]

They said that about Gravity too

I’m just the messenger.

But I was here during that period when they wouldn’t fully release the Gravity. I remember SEVERAL very angry reservation holders in here losing their sh!t constantly for months wanting Lucid to release the car. There were articles from sites calling them out. I can’t blame them for at least trying to do something different. No idea if it’ll work. I just can understand why.

 

[DrJBell]

They said later this summer. At this point it would be dumb to reveal right now with the Rivian buzz and with the war in the Middle East i am pretty sure customer deliveries will follow R2 meaning June next year. Production is scheduled for end of 2026 and they may make that but it will be like 1 car. I think they will be fine but they need cool colors and some fun aspect to this car they can’t be boring or the will be in trouble.

 

[socktucker]

They said later this summer. At this point it would be dumb to reveal right now with the Rivian buzz and with the war in the Middle East i am pretty sure customer deliveries will follow R2 meaning June next year. Production is scheduled for end of 2026 and they may make that but it will be like 1 car. I think they will be fine but they need cool colors and some fun aspect to this car they can’t be boring or the will be in trouble.

I have heard its ugly as hell, hopefully they redesign it a little bit.

 

[tmichael]

possibly only delayed because the new ceo wants to get up to speed and all info releases are paused pending earlyish July.

Is that your own projection or is there a verifiable source?

 

[tmichael]

I have heard its ugly as hell, hopefully they redesign it a little bit.

Based on the Air and Gravity design language, I'm hopeful it isn't ugly. If the benchmarks are R2 and Model Y, it's a pretty low bar to jump over...

 

[DreamTour]

I'm going to go with - every consequential decision got iced until new CEO gets behind it.

 

[The_Don]

I have heard its ugly as hell, hopefully they redesign it a little bit.

 

[HC_79]

I have heard its ugly as hell, hopefully they redesign it a little bit.

And who are you basing that off? Kyle's comments. You're hoping they redesign it off something you've never seen and taking comments from 1 or 2 people who have seen it as gospel. Looks are subjective, just as some say the Air is a Buick and Gravity is a minivan not everyone will agree.

Do you need to try and bring down every thread you comment on.....

 

[Need4Sleep]

And who are you basing that off? Kyle's comments. You're hoping they redesign it off something you've never seen and taking comments from 1 or 2 people who have seen it as gospel. Looks are subjective, just as some say the Air is a Buick and Gravity is a minivan not everyone will agree.

Do you need to try and bring down every thread you comment on.....

Plus also trying to redesign physical engineering projects that require extensive testing (crash, durability, environmental testing, etc.), homologation to various regional requirements, manufacturing validation, staff training, supplier logistics, and multitude of other requirements. All within, what, less than 6 months away from the initial start of production target?

That's not happening.

 

[DreamTour]

And who are you basing that off? Kyle's comments. You're hoping they redesign it off something you've never seen and taking comments from 1 or 2 people who have seen it as gospel. Looks are subjective, just as some say the Air is a Buick and Gravity is a minivan not everyone will agree.

Do you need to try and bring down every thread you comment on.....

For better or worse, I feel like the trend with Lucid's designs is that they will be avant guard / acquired taste. Perhaps ahead of its time.

They are willing to push the envelope on design - starting with Air's short hood vs long hood convention, and Gravity's is it a minivan or not argument.

In some ways I think taking that risk has impacted short term sales - look at Rivian going after tried and tested (both boxy SUV / REI branding). The vast majority of consumers are creatures of habit - and what's been drilled in / desirable is sticky. Familiarity as a strong tribal identifier is real.

Lucid's been willing to break the mold design wise. I like that. I also realize this may not have helped them in the early days. Even setting aside the service / execution issues - is probably limits its initial market uptake.

 

[dbsb3233]

It's a Catch-22 for Lucid. Release it too soon before you can deliver (like the Gravity) and you piss reservation holders off and get a bad reputation.

But Lucid is in a race to profitability. They need the revenues from a mass-market model sooner rather than later. They're at the mercy of the PIF, and for however much patience they'll have for continuing to prop them up.

I guess my approach would be "take as long as PIF will give to to get Cosmos right this time". I have no idea how long that is. They said the SA plant is targeting late 2026 and the US plant mid/late 2027. You can probably add 3-6 months to that for delays. I would guess the SA plant will be mostly for Eastern Hemisphere markets, with emphasis on SA sales to appease PIF.

So for the US market, well, I probably wouldn't even start taking reservations for at least another year. Keeping people on the hook for 12-18 months before they can take delivery is not good.

 

[Need4Sleep]

For better or worse, I feel like the trend with Lucid's designs is that they will be avant guard / acquired taste. Perhaps ahead of its time.

They are willing to push the envelope on design - starting with Air's short hood vs long hood convention, and Gravity's is it a minivan or not argument.

In some ways I think taking that risk has impacted short term sales - look at Rivian going after tried and tested (both boxy SUV / REI branding). The vast majority of consumers are creatures of habit - and what's been drilled in / desirable is sticky. Familiarity as a strong tribal identifier is real.

Lucid's been willing to break the mold design wise. I like that. I also realize this may not have helped them in the early days. Even setting aside the service / execution issues - is probably limits its initial market uptake.

Judging by the silhouettes shown during the investor day, it looks like Lucid's midsize strategy will cover both ends of the spectrum. On the one side, you have the sportier Cosmos targeting the avant-garde SUV-coupe buyer. On the other, you have Earth and the to-be-announced model on the more traditional boxy SUV end.

 

[Need4Sleep]

It's a Catch-22 for Lucid. Release it too soon before you can deliver (like the Gravity) and you piss reservation holders off and get a bad reputation.

But Lucid is in a race to profitability. They need the revenues from a mass-market model sooner rather than later. They're at the mercy of the PIF, and for however much patience they'll have for continuing to prop them up.

I guess my approach would be "take as long as PIF will give to to get Cosmos right this time". I have no idea how long that is. They said the SA plant is targeting late 2026 and the US plant mid/late 2027. You can probably add 3-6 months to that for delays. I would guess the SA plant will be mostly for Eastern Hemisphere markets, with emphasis on SA sales to appease PIF.

So for the US market, well, I probably wouldn't even start taking reservations for at least another year. Keeping people on the hook for 12-18 months before they can take delivery is not good.

From my understanding, the Saudi Arabia plant will be shipping midsize to the US initially, then the US plant will take over the US market once that is set up

 

[LucidfanAZ]

I believe a majority of the Saudis governments orders are for the midsize platform. So I’d imagine they too don’t want a half baked software car as they rollout vehicles in their country. Since Lucid has a big order backlog to fulfill here, it makes sense to take their time. We all will be thankful they did in the long run.