What's Next for the Lucid Factory?

[MidwestLucidDude]

Now that Gravity is rolling out, the question is "What's next, in terms of the factory?" Will Lucid need to expand their manufacturing footprint, or can they make the Air, Gravity, and Earth with the footprint they already have? Two reasons this is important. Once is more factory space will mean a bigger capital drain and the need to raise even more money, and the other is if they need that space, we should be seeing signs of that work starting now if they plan on delivering the Earth, a higher volume SUV, in two years. The lack of new factory expansion work might be telling. Does anyone have any substantive insights on this to provide a meaningful analysis?

 

[segbrk]

From all that we've heard, the factories (both of them) have been built for Midsize volume.

 

[Buffalo Bob]

I believe that Lucid's current manufacturing capability poises them for growth well beyond their Air and Gravity flagship products. However, I imagine that higher volume deliveries of their mid-size product will also require expansion of their service and support infrastructure.

 

[msaunders9430]

Lucid’s Purpose Built Advanced Manufacturing Plant Expands as the Company Prepares for Lucid Gravity and Future Vehicles

lucidmotors.com

 

[HC_79]

I believe it’s not complete yet. AMP1 is being built in 3 Phases and the current expansion was Phase 2.

 

[msaunders9430]

I believe it’s not complete yet. AMP1 is being built in 3 Phases and the current expansion was Phase 2.

I'm pretty sure that Lucid announcement was about the completion of that expansion.

This was written about the ribbon cutting ceremony. Perhaps I'm mistaken?

Lucid CEO teases a mid-size Tesla Model 3, Model Y competitor in development

During a ribbon-cutting ceremony celebrating the opening of Phase 2 at its AMP-1 production facility in Arizona, Lucid Motors CEO...

electrek.co

 

[msaunders9430]

 

[joec]

If you've never been to the factory, you should know, it's huge. Like, insanely huge. I don't think they're going to need more space anytime soon.

If they do, they'll build it. But I think the entire expansion plan included having the space for mid-size.

 

[MidwestLucidDude]

If you've never been to the factory, you should know, it's huge. Like, insanely huge. I don't think they're going to need more space anytime soon.

If they do, they'll build it. But I think the entire expansion plan included having the space for mid-size.

I've been to the factory. I've also toured the Corvette factory twice. Great tour BTW. But I'm not an auto manufacturing engineer. What I was hoping for is someone with knowledge in the industry to be able to say something like, "Here's four factories that produce three or more completely separate models of vehicle in one location with a similar footprint." Or, "Given the square footage of the current plant, I believe the max capacity they can achieve is xyz." I can't quantify insanely huge as it relates to capacity or the ease of producing three different lines of vehicles in one plant. Will they run them on one assembly line? Will they have three assembly lines? Touring the Corvette facility, I can say running just one assembly line is a huge undertaking, and I can envison bottle necks from the two halfs going through that one small sky bridge as vehicles cross over for paint or finishing. But what do I know? I'm just the goofy looking guy with a Lucid cap.

 

[Ktw13]

I believe have heard mid sized will primary be build in AMP2.

It make sense that the land could be cheaper, material energy is cheaper, labour is cheaper etc.

 

[MidwestLucidDude]

I've been to the factory. I've also toured the Corvette factory twice. Great tour BTW. But I'm not an auto manufacturing engineer. What I was hoping for is someone with knowledge in the industry to be able to say something like, "Here's four factories that produce three or more completely separate models of vehicle in one location with a similar footprint." Or, "Given the square footage of the current plant, I believe the max capacity they can achieve is xyz." I can't quantify insanely huge as it relates to capacity or the ease of producing three different lines of vehicles in one plant. Will they run them on one assembly line? Will they have three assembly lines? Touring the Corvette facility, I can say running just one assembly line is a huge undertaking, and I can envison bottle necks from the two halfs going through that one small sky bridge as vehicles cross over for paint or finishing. But what do I know? I'm just the goofy looking guy with a Lucid cap.

In an attempt to answer my own question, I dug down a little to find a comparison. The Sellantis Jeep assembly plant in Belvidere, Illinois is about an hour from my home and I've driven by it dozens of times. That plant is 5,300,000 sq. ft. Lucid has 3,850,000 sq. ft. At one point, the Belvidere plant was producting 263,521 vehicles per year with 4,000 employees. Since the Lucid plant is 27% smaller than Belevidere, simple math would indicate to me that Lucid should be able to bang out 192,000 per year. If you give 92,000 to Air and Gravity, that leaves enough prodcution for 100,000 of their midsize vehicle. So in theory Lucid has the capacity. However, as best I can tell, the Belvidere plant mostly produced one vehicle at any time. Lucid will try to procude at least three. I am a Lucid fan and I'm sure they know what they're doing. Just looking for some clarity as I root for their success.

​

 

[joec]

In an attempt to answer my own question, I dug down a little to find a comparison. The Sellantis Jeep assembly plant in Belvidere, Illinois is about an hour from my home and I've driven by it dozens of times. That plant is 5,300,000 sq. ft. Lucid has 3,850,000 sq. ft. At one point, the Belvidere plant was producting 263,521 vehicles per year with 4,000 employees. Since the Lucid plant is 27% smaller than Belevidere, simple math would indicate to me that Lucid should be able to bang out 192,000 per year. If you give 92,000 to Air and Gravity, that leaves enough prodcution for 100,000 of their midsize vehicle. So in theory Lucid has the capacity. However, as best I can tell, the Belvidere plant mostly produced one vehicle at any time. Lucid will try to procude at least three. I am a Lucid fan and I'm sure they know what they're doing. Just looking for some clarity as I root for their success.

​

AMP-1 can definitely run multiple models and trims on the same line. I was told that specifically. And they'd be thrilled with shipping 250k+ cars in a single year in the next five years.

Air will always be a niche product. Gravity will sell double or triple Air. The vast majority of Lucid's production in 2027 or 2028 will be mid-size.

 

[Adnillien]

Lucid has said that AMP-1 as currently equipped can produce 90k cars per year. The Body In White lines are different for each model because they are highly automated. The general assembly area can be common between of the models. At the end of 2024, AMP-1 was producing roughly 1000 cars per month. I am not sure how fast Lucid can ramp production but I am guessing that getting to 2000 cars per month by the end of the might be a reasonable goal. We should learn more during the Q4 earnings call.

 

[Steveinarizona]

can't quantify insanely huge as it relates to capacity or the ease of producing three different lines of vehicles in one plant. Will they run them on one assembly line? Will they have three assembly lines? Touring the Corvette facility, I can say running just one assembly line is a huge undertaking, and I can envison bottle necks from the two halfs going through that one small sky bridge as vehicles cross over for paint or finishing. But what do I know? I'm just the goofy looking guy with a Lucid cap.

The Magna/Steyr plant in Graz produces "... the legendary Mercedes-Benz G-Class, Jaguar models I-PACE and E-PACE, the BMW 5 Series, the BMW Z4 and the Toyota GR Supra."

Performance Report

www.magna.com

In addition, the quality that has come out of the Graz plant has been excellent.