US EV Registrations - 41% in CA

[DeaneG]

The point no one is talking about is the fact that our electric grid cannot support all these new EVs. CA is only 1% penetration and they are already warning not to charge during peak times as we will likely have brownouts. The other states are only a fraction of that. What happens when penetration goes up 10x to only 10%? More gas and coal plants are needed to supply all this power. Otherwise we need to go more nuclear which the environmentalists don't like either.

Those are some broad strokes you're painting. More renewable energy, grid-level storage, and new-generation nuclear energy is needed, not coal and natural gas. People charge their vehicles at night, not at peak grid load. BTW CA EV penetration is close to 2% now. EV growth will force grid improvements. It'll happen.

 

[Sandvinsd]

Those are some broad strokes you're painting. More renewable energy, grid-level storage, and new-generation nuclear energy is needed, not coal and natural gas. People charge their vehicles at night, not at peak grid load. BTW CA EV penetration is close to 2% now. EV growth will force grid improvements. It'll happen.

Wind and solar are not ready for prime time, especially since we only have <1% penetration in the EV market Nationwide. Do you honestly believe that those renewables can power EVs if we get to 10%, 20% or 50% penetration? Even in CA, I’ll give you the 2% penetration, we are told not to charge our cars during peak times due to the lack of electricity. Our grid cannot handle a 10x increase in EVs. It would have to be nuclear and the environmental lobby needs to get on board with that. Currently they are not.

 

[DeaneG]

...Do you honestly believe that those renewables can power EVs if we get to 10%, 20% or 50% penetration? Even in CA, I’ll give you the 2% penetration, we are told not to charge our cars during peak times due to the lack of electricity. ...

I think it will take two to three decades to get to 50% EV penetration (percentage of full EVs of total cars in use). I expect that this will be enough time to commensurately improve the grid and build out more renewable energy and possibly nuclear. Adding solar and wind energy power plants currently cost about the same as adding more natural gas plants, and are much less expensive than coal. There are environmentalists who view the actions of 1970's environmentalists as ultimately being damaging to the environment by blocking expansion of nuclear energy. But we do need to improve the grid, and add grid storage. Money and people are currently being thrown at this.

We may have to agree to disagree! In any case, time will tell.

 

[LCIDdreams]

I think it will take two to three decades to get to 50% EV penetration (percentage of full EVs of total cars in use). I expect that this will be enough time to commensurately improve the grid and build out more renewable energy and possibly nuclear. Adding solar and wind energy power plants currently cost about the same as adding more natural gas plants, and are much less expensive than coal. There are environmentalists who view the actions of 1970's environmentalists as ultimately being damaging to the environment by blocking expansion of nuclear energy. But we do need to improve the grid, and add grid storage. Money and people are currently being thrown at this.

We may have to agree to disagree! In any case, time will tell.

Yes- even if ICE cars were banned for new vehicle sales beginning today (and there was sufficient EV supply to meet 100% of new vehicle demand ) it would still take over 9 years to get to 50% of US fleet EV (based on 276M vehicles and 15M annual new car sales.)

 

[LCIDdreams]

That's the crazy part isn't it? Isn't nuclear power leaps and bounds more environmentally friendly than coal?

The only thing with nuclear is the number of people that like the idea quickly dwindles if a plant is suggested within 50 miles of where they live.

I’m planning to do my part and go to rooftop solar for 100% of my annual electrical usage. With federal and state incentives that result in a total installed cost barely above $1 per watt in NY it’s a no-brainer (although obviously not an option for all individuals…condos, apartments, neighborhoods with tall trees etc)

 

[Steveinarizona]

The only thing with nuclear is the number of people that like the idea quickly dwindles if a plant is suggested within 50 miles of where they live.

I’m planning to do my part and go to rooftop solar for 100% of my annual electrical usage. With federal and state incentives that result in a total installed cost barely above $1 per watt in NY it’s a no-brainer (although obviously not an option for all individuals…condos, apartments, neighborhoods with tall trees etc)

Yep. NIMB!

 

[Val88]

My personal observation. I live in northern CA and I see a lot of EVs. I see a lot of teskas on the road like every few miles of driving. I've been in nyc for the past month and I barely see EVs including tesla. In the past month I can count the # of teslas in one hand and I noticed most of those were actually NJ. My unscientific guess is the lack of chargers. In Northern CA chargers are everywhere. I can count off the top of my head a dozen very close to my house. In New York, I opened up my app for a list of all ev chargers and there are 3 within a 10 mile radius. So I think unless you have a charger set up at home you're not likely to be getting an ev in nyc. Plus Northern ca premium gas is above $6.75 while in nyc its below $6 so there is that added incentive. Nyc wealthy are largely concentrated in Manhattan and those folks are used to not having a car at all. It's all taxi and livery car service.

 

[MPawelek]

One would think the taxi and uber type services would be switching over to EVs…..

 

[Sandvinsd]

One would think the taxi and uber type services would be switching over to EVs…..

Many Uber / Lyft drivers already have. I have seen them all over in SD driving EVs, and they were always tying up the EVgo fast chargers when I was needing a charge.

 

[Tesla2.0]

One would think the taxi and uber type services would be switching over to EVs…..

Couple months ago I was at Manhattan, happened to ride Tesla 3 times in Uber.