US carmakers should be terrified, including Lucid

Unlike a Smart TV where your biggest worry is China spying on your viewing habits, with a modern Internet connected car, spying and other nefarious issues become much more possible. Think of using the cameras to view secure military, scientific or other secure facilities. Possibly using infotainment system to listen in on private conversations. Or even brick all cars or have them drive off cliffs (in the event relations go very bad between US and China). There is also the issue of China heavily subsidizing these companies so that they can put other countries car companies out of business and also possible slave labor alogations.
Any connected device creates vulnerability. As someone who’s spent a considerable amount of time on cyber security I can tell you that narrowly focusing on the vulnerabilities of cars is futile. It’s the equivalent of double checking the dead bolt on your front door and leaving your garage wide open. Why go after cars when you can wreak havoc by going after our porous cyber infrastructure and inflict 10x the damage? And eavesdropping is already happening, you don’t need to spend resources on engineering it into a car.

And don’t kid yourself about how we’re different than the Chinese when it comes to subsidizing industries. Our modern day military industry exists as a subsidy to defense contractors and the oil and gas industry. We’ve spent billions over the last few months affirming that. Meanwhile the Chinese are pouring their dollars into infrastructure and manufacturing capabilities much of which is paid for on interest from our debt. Talk about a subsidy.

And our U.S. automakers have no qualms about partnering with the Chinese government to build and sell cars in their country.
 
Unlike a Smart TV where your biggest worry is China spying on your viewing habits, with a modern Internet connected car, spying and other nefarious issues become much more possible. Think of using the cameras to view secure military, scientific or other secure facilities. Possibly using infotainment system to listen in on private conversations. Or even brick all cars or have them drive off cliffs (in the event relations go very bad between US and China). There is also the issue of China heavily subsidizing these companies so that they can put other countries car companies out of business and also possible slave labor alogations.
I don't have a 'smart TV', nor do I have Alexa or google or any 'smart' products in my home thanks. I keep my cell phone in a lead pouch when I don't use it. As someone coming from IT, I have very little trust and faith in too much spyware electronics thanks. I also don't have a TikTok, snapchat, instagram, etc. I wasn't raised on that nonsense and see no reason for it now. I also don't do 'selfies' and don't believe in 'oversharing' nonsense as others do thanks.
 
I imagine how hard it has to be to live in a house with no electronics, kitchen gadgets, and a long list of Chinese made products! A very minimalist approach to life 😂
But I guess cars subsidized by Petro dollars are more ethical than those made with subsidized Chinese capital 🤔
It's also sad that my more than 30 year old gas stove (that was made in the USA mind you) still functions fine... and my 25 year old fridge and matching dishwasher is still fine too! I have zero interest in 'upgrading' to appliances that are 'smart' and will only break in 3 to 5 years. I took a chance on this Lucid and really do hope it gives me 10 years at least (but I'm hoping for 15-20) as I tend to keep cars a really long time (why I bought instead of leased)
 
Jim Farley at Ford drove a Xiaomi for six months and didn’t want to give it up. Mary Barra at GM continues to sound the alarm over US manufacturers losing the global EV race to China. So if the CEO’s of our two largest automakers acknowledge this maybe it’s time to rethink our perceptions on the topic. Because as those manufacturers learned in the 70’s with Japan, it’s not enough to say you build a better car, you have to actually do it.
And built it at low cost. That's the main problem for US manufacturers (European too). They can build great EVs. They just usually can't build them at low enough cost (Tesla being the exception).
 
I don't have a 'smart TV', nor do I have Alexa or google or any 'smart' products in my home thanks. I keep my cell phone in a lead pouch when I don't use it. As someone coming from IT, I have very little trust and faith in too much spyware electronics thanks. I also don't have a TikTok, snapchat, instagram, etc. I wasn't raised on that nonsense and see no reason for it now. I also don't do 'selfies' and don't believe in 'oversharing' nonsense as others do thanks.
Certainly, you are reducing your risk far more than the average person. And yet, I would argue that the gathering of data is ubiquitous. The most egregious examples may be found in Chinese devices and even iphones are not immune - https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/04/chi...denies-the-bloomberg-businessweek-report.html

However, American companies also want your information too. Why do automakers spend vast amounts of money developing native software for their cars while quietly trying to eliminate AA and Carplay despite widespread popularity(Tesla, GM)? Because they want your data too. Where you shop, what type of music you prefer, what podcasts you listen to, can all be monetized for the benefit of your car manufacturer.

As I have said in earlier, posts, current policy for restricting Chinese EV imports is all about protecting our US EV industry (and maybe even our ICE automakers). The Chinese can certainly make EVs to meet whatever standards we would require at a lower cost than US models. I think our only hope is to make gains in innovation, so that they can't be matched at the higher end. But the current political climate doesn't seem to support EV development which makes it even harder...
 
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Certainly, you are reducing your risk far more than the average person. And yet, I would argue that the gathering of data is ubiquitous. The most egregious examples may be found in Chinese devices and even iphones are not immune - https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/04/chi...denies-the-bloomberg-businessweek-report.html

However, American companies also want your information too. Why do automakers spend vast amounts of money developing native software for their cars while quietly trying to eliminate AA and Carplay despite widespread popularity(Tesla, GM)? Because they want your data too. Where you shop, what type of music you prefer, what podcasts you listen to, can all be monetized for the benefit of your car manufacturer.

Yes, I'll never purchase a new GM vehicle again unless I happen to buy an older one (such as our 2001 GMC Duramax that was 3G so even OnStar no longer functions on it). Our 2013 city beater (that we drive into the city of Chicago and not worry about theft or vandalism) is a 6spd manual Nissan Sentra (built in theft prevention) AND it doesn't even have a back up camera, not even Sirius radio-- so it too is immune to 'spyware'. Of course there are always the stupid flock cameras. It is what it is. I'm not happy about it. Keep your phone in a lead pouch while driving and at least that aspect of spying is eliminated as well.

I'm also fully aware that Lucid has more 'spy' ability and I've accepted that aspect. Unlike Tesla, At least android auto is functional now! --so there is that availability with regards to mapping directions when we don't use conventional maps and/or know the route already anyway. My native NAV still doesn't even have all the current EV charging locations like google maps does but perhaps this latest 2.10 update has taken care of bringing that more up-to-date finally?

I also don't own an iPhone and have no interest in switching over to an iPhone.
 
Certainly, you are reducing your risk far more than the average person. And yet, I would argue that the gathering of data is ubiquitous. The most egregious examples may be found in Chinese devices and even iphones are not immune - https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/04/chi...denies-the-bloomberg-businessweek-report.html

However, American companies also want your information too. Why do automakers spend vast amounts of money developing native software for their cars while quietly trying to eliminate AA and Carplay despite widespread popularity(Tesla, GM)? Because they want your data too. Where you shop, what type of music you prefer, what podcasts you listen to, can all be monetized for the benefit of your car manufacturer.

As I have said in earlier, posts, current policy for restricting Chinese EV imports is all about protecting our US EV industry (and maybe even our ICE automakers). The Chinese can certainly make EVs to meet whatever standards we would require at a lower cost than US models. I think our only hope is to make gains in innovation, so that they can't be matched at the higher end. But the current political climate doesn't seem to support EV development which makes it even harder...
Granted, yes, whenever a smart device is used, it'll ping off a signal, that also includes phone providers, ISPs, websites, ads, etc. It's also important to recognize that it's no longer just individual devices that are being used to identify people. Anything we use today can be cross-checked

For example:
- License plates
- insurance policies (some insurance companies install apps on your phones to affect your premium)
- toll booth usage
- security cameras
- any purchase on a credit card
- any cheques that are written
- anything connected to pensions and benefits
- proximity to people (both physically and within your social circle),
- doctor visits
- gym/club memberships
- online habits (I'm not talking about online shopping, even just browsing alone)
- etc.

All of these can be used as additional cross-checks to build comprehensive profiles on you. Individual action (e.g. disconnecting batteries, faraday cages, etc.) is no longer enough for people to protect their privacy because there are so many other proxies that can be used. Data protection and privacy needs to be addressed with meaningful laws and regulations. But that's a conversation for another day.
 
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Granted, yes, whenever a smart device is used, it'll ping off a signal, that also includes phone providers, ISPs, websites, ads, etc. It's also important to recognize that it's no longer just individual devices that are being used to identify people. Anything we used today can be cross-checked

For example:
- License plates
- insurance policies (some insurance companies install apps on your phones to affect your premium)
- toll booth usage
- security cameras
- any purchase on a credit card
- any cheques that are written
- anything connected to pensions and benefits
- proximity to people (both physically and within your social circle),
- doctor visits
- gym/club memberships
- online habits (I'm not talking about online shopping, even just browsing alone)
- etc.

All of these can be used as additional cross-checks to build comprehensive profiles on you.

Yes, not much I can do about license plate scans since its a requirement. I still use cash for a lot of things so that helps (haha). I've been refusing those darn insurance apps constantly. I just had an attempt made to sign me up for this without my authorization from my insurance company actually (State Farm) and called them up and gave them an earful. They made whatever changes they needed to on their end and my policy went up $20. $20 is worth my privacy on that aspect thanks! I also refuse to install yet another app on my phone. Plus I explained to my agent how useless it would be since I'm not one of those people that always has my phone attached to me AND if I'm driving, my cell phone is in a faraday cage/lead pouch anyway!
 
And built it at low cost. That's the main problem for US manufacturers (European too). They can build great EVs. They just usually can't build them at low enough cost (Tesla being the exception).
Actually, that's more of a short term problem. Go back 5 - 7 years... "The price of lithium blah blah blah" Since then the price of lithium has dropped significantly due to the volume of EVs being produced.

The actual long-term advantage of building EVs will surface later. To illustrate that, let's look at why GM was so quick to announce that they would be 100% zero emissions passenger vehicles by 2035. Why would they just boldly come out and say that? Because they realized to get there in a cost responsible manner, they needed the supply base to realize they were serious about it. But why would they be serious about such a drastic move? Vehicle and Powertrain platform economics. By making a wholesale shift to EV, GM could reduce their portfolio support requirements from 10+ ICE platforms requiring annual tweaking down to 3 - 4 EV platforms that could remain largely unchanged for multiple years. And the engine and transmission platforms would go to zero.

At the time they announced the strategic shift GM's product portfolio consisted of 9 -13 vehicle platforms, 5 engine platforms, and 4 transmission platforms.
Each vehicle platform requires roughly $1B a year in engineering and certification support year-to-year just making minor annual product changes, $2 - 4B for a major product change. Engine programs require $3 - 500M in annual engineering support, 2 - 3 times that for a major product change. I've lost track of what it takes to maintain transmission programs and they do tend to require less yty engineering support than engines. So, taking the low end of all of those numbers you're looking at about $10B annually just to maintain the current portfolio. More when adding or significantly changing product.

Now looking through an EV lens, where the platforms are primarily built on skateboard architectures that can be scaled for overall length, wheelbase, and track width, the number of overall platforms required drops significantly. GM's current EV portfolio is built on (3) platforms. Two of those platforms are similar enough that you can almost call them the same, but with variation. The third is the Chevrolet Bolt, which was brought back hastily and will go away equally quickly only to return on a consolidated platform with other vehicle refreshes.

GM's current EV platforms are:

BEV2: Chevrolet Bolt (ICE equivalent was built on Gamma)

BEV3:
  • Chevrolet Equinox EV (ICE Equivalent is built on Delta)
  • Chevrolet Blazer EV (and Honda Prologue) (ICE equivalent is built on Chi)
  • Cadillac Lyriq (and Acura ZDX) (ICE equivalent is built on Chi)
  • Cadillac Optiq (ICE equivalent was built on Epsilon)
  • Cadillac Vistiq (ICE equivalent would have been built on Omega)
  • future Buick EVs (ICE equivalents would have been built on Alpha, Epsilon, and possibly Gamma)
BT1: (ICE equivalents all built on T2XX)
  • Cadillac Escalade iQ
  • Chevrolet Silverado EV
  • GMC Sierra EV
  • GMC Hummer EV
 
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Because they realized to get there in a cost responsible manner, they needed the supply base to realize they were serious about it.
Yeah, I think the discussion on supply chains isn't talked about enough. As much as we praise companies like Lucid for vertical integration, there's only so much you can build internally. You'll still need external suppliers, so it's important to get the titanic ship that is the different tiers of suppliers to steer and get ready for more EV scale.
 
Any connected device creates vulnerability. As someone who’s spent a considerable amount of time on cyber security I can tell you that narrowly focusing on the vulnerabilities of cars is futile. It’s the equivalent of double checking the dead bolt on your front door and leaving your garage wide open. Why go after cars when you can wreak havoc by going after our porous cyber infrastructure and inflict 10x the damage? And eavesdropping is already happening, you don’t need to spend resources on engineering it into a car.

And don’t kid yourself about how we’re different than the Chinese when it comes to subsidizing industries. Our modern day military industry exists as a subsidy to defense contractors and the oil and gas industry. We’ve spent billions over the last few months affirming that. Meanwhile the Chinese are pouring their dollars into infrastructure and manufacturing capabilities much of which is paid for on interest from our debt. Talk about a subsidy.

And our U.S. automakers have no qualms about partnering with the Chinese government to build and sell cars in their country.
Yup. All an attacker needs is a beachhead. And most homes have ~infinite beachheads.

It’s okay tho, you’re probably fine 😂
 
Yup. All an attacker needs is a beachhead. And most homes have ~infinite beachheads.

It’s okay tho, you’re probably fine 😂
I knew it, my printer is a beachhead!
 
The actual long-term advantage of building EVs will surface later. To illustrate that, let's look at why GM was so quick to announce that they would be 100% zero emissions passenger vehicles by 2035. Why would they just boldly come out and say that?
Because they and the others know that'll change (again) multiple times before then. That's 9 years away. They have no idea what the market will be in 9 years, just like they (an many governments) got it wildly wrong 9 years ago for today. The US is sitting at 6% EV market share when many expected 30-50% by now. Wildly unrealistic. GM and Ford and others each wrote off many billions by trying to move too fast.

No one knows what the pace will be, but I sure wouldn't spend billions expecting the market will suddenly explode in the NEXT 9 years like they wrongly (and costly) expected the last 9. Gradual transition averaging a few% more each year (US) seems more prudent.
 
Because they and the others know that'll change (again) multiple times before then. That's 9 years away. They have no idea what the market will be in 9 years, just like they (an many governments) got it wildly wrong 9 years ago for today. The US is sitting at 6% EV market share when many expected 30-50% by now. Wildly unrealistic. GM and Ford and others each wrote off many billions by trying to move too fast.

No one knows what the pace will be, but I sure wouldn't spend billions expecting the market will suddenly explode in the NEXT 9 years like they wrongly (and costly) expected the last 9. Gradual transition averaging a few% more each year (US) seems more prudent.
the thing is that the supplier landscape was very different between 9 years ago and today. Add to the current world events, I wouldn't be surprised to see more concentrated effort to swap away reliance from oil when possible
 
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Because they and the others know that'll change (again) multiple times before then. That's 9 years away. They have no idea what the market will be in 9 years, just like they (an many governments) got it wildly wrong 9 years ago for today. The US is sitting at 6% EV market share when many expected 30-50% by now. Wildly unrealistic. GM and Ford and others each wrote off many billions by trying to move too fast.

No one knows what the pace will be, but I sure wouldn't spend billions expecting the market will suddenly explode in the NEXT 9 years like they wrongly (and costly) expected the last 9. Gradual transition averaging a few% more each year (US) seems more prudent.
I’m not so sure that it was speed that doomed these efforts as much as it was an inability to provide vehicles that the market had interest in. An electric F-150 is a great idea but not if it can’t tow more than 100 miles. The Hummer EV is really cool until you consider that it’s a niche vehicle, retails over $100K, and will cost more to charge than a tank of gas in an ICE car. They also focused on vehicles that appeal to ardent ICE owners (big trucks, and SUV’s). The appeal of EV’s is efficiency and/or performance.

But they’re learning. The Bolt sells quite well as does the Equinox EV. They’re competent and affordable. Ford will soon release its new EV pick-up which will more closely resemble the Maverick in pricing and capabilities. More importantly the US automakers have to compete globally. The US is lagging China and Europe in EV adoption. Those are important markets from a manufacturing and sales standpoint to GM and Ford. BYD, Geely, and NIO are doubling down on their efforts to expand in those areas in both production and sales. They're also investing heavily in global infrastructure and EV technology. Ultimately supply chains and economics pivot towards growth. And it can happen quickly. It wasn’t long ago that BlackBerry and Nokia dominated the cell phone market.
 
Because they and the others know that'll change (again) multiple times before then. That's 9 years away. They have no idea what the market will be in 9 years, just like they (an many governments) got it wildly wrong 9 years ago for today. The US is sitting at 6% EV market share when many expected 30-50% by now. Wildly unrealistic. GM and Ford and others each wrote off many billions by trying to move too fast.

No one knows what the pace will be, but I sure wouldn't spend billions expecting the market will suddenly explode in the NEXT 9 years like they wrongly (and costly) expected the last 9. Gradual transition averaging a few% more each year (US) seems more prudent.

Yeah, great plan, let’s just build ICE and hybrids while China takes over…..present crop of CEOs in Detroit only care about the next 3-5 years. After that it will be someone else’s problem. If you don’t spend now on the tech and supply chain, you will be history in a decade, or at least confined to selling cars in just USA while rest of the world moves on to pure EVs. I see Detroit in big trouble in a decade.
 
Because they and the others know that'll change (again) multiple times before then. That's 9 years away. They have no idea what the market will be in 9 years, just like they (an many governments) got it wildly wrong 9 years ago for today. The US is sitting at 6% EV market share when many expected 30-50% by now. Wildly unrealistic. GM and Ford and others each wrote off many billions by trying to move too fast.

No one knows what the pace will be, but I sure wouldn't spend billions expecting the market will suddenly explode in the NEXT 9 years like they wrongly (and costly) expected the last 9. Gradual transition averaging a few% more each year (US) seems more prudent.
What you say makes sense but I"m gonna totally disagree based on "insider" knowledge. From both sides of the table. When I was at GM I was in Product Portfolio Planning. Much of the reason I was able to toss out the numbers I tossed out. I dealt with them all the time. I am also aware of how forward product planning and strategy development work and what needs to be true in order to make the type of strategy pronouncements GM was making. Part of the portfolio planning process involves ingesting and analyzing incredible amounts of external data to better "predict the future". We built scenarios in windows 5 - 15 years forward. Without doubt a direction locked in on Day 1 only approximately resembled the original strategy 10 years later but how close it came was dependent on the quality of the initial analysis as well as all the factors (regulation, material availability, new emerging technologies, competitor actions) but getting the "rudder direction" locked in has always been pretty important.

The common assumption that vehicle development takes 3 years from concept to car on the road is an over-simplification. Actuality is close to 5 - 8 years. The 3 year scenario is actually starting from the pot that the OEM has decided "we need a vehicle in this segment and it needs to fit in this square / segment and we need to capacities for xxx thousand per year in this price range and they will need to compete with A, B, C, and D". Those things are wrangled out in Strategic Planning and Product Portfolio planning before a single line is drawn to paper. When GM said in 2019 that they would be 100% zero emissions by 2035 they were factoring a full 2 product life cycles of gradually wind down ICE operations. That is super-aggressive. I didn't think it would be possible (they didn't ask me ;) ) but I could see that it was aspirational (not hell or high water) and likely announced primarily to get the supply base to focus on it and take seriously the development of technologies to support.

One of the key sources for data, information, and market forecasts that we used when I was at GM was IHS Markit which was later acquired by S&P Global and recently (days ago) spun off as Mobility Global. They provided industry forecasts looking as much as 12 years forward on a detailed (Brand / Model / Powertrain spec) level. When I retired from GM I did some independent consulting, then hired on with IHS Markit just before they were acquired by S&P Global, so now I was on the other side of the table working with GM (and other OEMS and suppliers) on industry outlook and forecast.

I can say two things about the write-offs that the industry took on their directional shift from aggressive electrification plans. GM clearly was not the only automaker that was banking on a broad scale shift to EV. The fact that all these companies spent money getting their infrastructure, product development, and supply chain aligned is absolute proof that not only did they all expect the industry to make the shift, but also that they were intent on being within the leader group to get there. Why things shifted back is more a political discussion than an analysis of the markets and I'm choosing not to go there...for now. But I will say that if you look at the pace of electrification in all other key automotive markets and compare to the US, you would have to ask "what makes the US different?"

I retired from S&P Global just ahead of the recent spin off. And bought myself a really cool retirement present which is what brought me to this user forum.
 
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