The Changing EV Climate in the U.S.

[Batteryman]

Between 2009 and 2023- China spent 230 billion US dollars, some say 500 billion, supporting EVs, and that money goes a longer way in China. US would need to spend at least a trillion.

No matter what any “ Gov should not interfere” thinks, US Gov does interfere - defense, oil, research funding, etc., Gov policy does chose winners and losers depending on the whims of who is in power. We are not devoid of Gov support for industry. This support could be policy or funding. Unless you want other countries to run ahead- like China and its EV’s

 

[dbsb3233]

If you want to stop China dominating the auto industry, you need subsidies, and you need more what the IRA offered. Biden partly destroyed it with his income and MSRP limits.

US will be left selling gas guzzlers in US. Rest of the world will move on to Chinese EVs. Trump knows this, he doesn’t care since he will be dead of old age by then.

The US has been losing it's auto manufacturing dominance since the 1970s. First it was competition from Japan, then it was competition from Korea, soon it will be competition from China. If we can't make a competitive product, that's what needs to happen rather than handing out $billions in subsidies to prop up an non-competitive industry.

However, I'm not willing to declare the US auto industry non-competitive yet. They still are, just not on EVs (except Tesla). And I'm not so sure they won't get there. So much still depends on battery prices, and there's still a good chance those will fall by an order of magnitude if more breakthroughs are made.

And ICE/hybrid is far from dead. I've often said we're just 10 years into a 30 year EV transition.

 

[hmp10]

I agree that would be nice and might work in Blue States but would not fly in Red States like where you and I live.

Florida has been kind of weird on the EV and solar energy front. Florida Power & Light has one of the most aggressive solar generation plans in the U.S. They have shut down their last coal-fired plant and now generate only with natural gas, nuclear, and solar with solar on track to be one-third of their generation by 2035. The state has passed laws preventing Homeowner Associations from blocking owners from installing solar panels and other energy-saving devices such as solar lighting tubes.

And Florida has the second-highest EV registration rate in the country, behind only California. It's really kind of the perfect place for EVs: very little cold weather, almost no drastic elevation changes, and many gas-consuming commutes (either due to congestion tie-ups or to long distances from suburbs or semi-rural areas, with few public transportation options). I live in a particularly deep red area, and the proliferation of EVs, especially Teslas, in the past few years has been astonishing. You can't sit at a red light at a major intersection without a half dozen or more Teslas passing through on every light change.

Of course, there have been some rollbacks of late and perhaps more coming. But so far not a particularly hostile EV climate here.

 

[hmp10]

The orange wants to even bully other countries….this guy is deranged!

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/27/climate/trump-international-pressure-climate-oil.html

Okay, I had my fingers crossed when I started this thread that we could keep the discussion from going down this rabbit hole. As I prior serial offender myself, I do understand the urge. But let's really try to keep this about trends and consequences, not the personalities.

 

[illopp00]

I honestly don’t think they will build broad charging infrastructure or change codes in red states unless more people have EVs. It’s a chicken and egg situation.

The majority of people still think of EVs as climate change mobiles or in some way associated with climate politics. It may be true that they are better environmentally but they are also better cars than ICE cars. More fun to drive, cheaper to operate, and the form factors are super flexible. Rivian and Lucid are showing that EVs can be differentiated and better than ICE cars. Small cheaper EVs are another vector that is a big opportunity. It just takes stunning amounts of money to build out the factory infrastructure since we have forbade Chinese manufactured vehicles. If the US can either produce or source cheaper batteries, I don’t think the tax credit elimination will be a big deal in a year or two.

Correct the cost curve decline on EV batteries was already on track to halve in the next 3 years without the credits, now tariffs and supply chain may have slowed that down, but progress is progress. I don't know how we get the paying for charging to happen, both installing in Apartments and charging back to the customer without more EVs. But we also don't need to overprovision, a NEMA outlet with 220V and 15 amp should be good enough for 90% of daily driving.

 

[jbawden]

I would add that we (collective EV owners) need to back off the EV's are everyone's future mantra a bit. They might be, eventually, but to ICE fans its nothing more than a veiled endorsement of those trying to ban ICE. Some here are completely ungrounded to myriad reasons why people choose ICE. ICE is going to coexist with EV's and whatever else comes around as a motivating power for decades. @dbsb3233 I would argue the same is true for the majority of buyers uninterested in EV's: They not avoiding them for political reasons, they just aren't compelling options to them.

 

[dbsb3233]

Correct the cost curve decline on EV batteries was already on track to halve in the next 3 years without the credits, now tariffs and supply chain may have slowed that down, but progress is progress. I don't know how we get the paying for charging to happen, both installing in Apartments and charging back to the customer without more EVs. But we also don't need to overprovision, a NEMA outlet with 220V and 15 amp should be good enough for 90% of daily driving.

Apartment complexes will eventually follow as demand for charging dictates, but that's only like 30% of the populace. Most of the natural growth should come from people already in ideal position: homeowners who can easily install their own EVSE.

Suburbanites with 2 cars are the perfect candidates. One EV + one ICE. Both bases covered.

When EV new car market share reaches 30-40%, apartment complexes and hotels will see more customers valuing chargers as an amenity, gradually missing out on business if they don't offer it.

 

[Plg]

I would add that we (collective EV owners) need to back off the EV's are everyone's future mantra a bit. They might be, eventually, but to ICE fans its nothing more than a veiled endorsement of those trying to ban ICE. Some here are completely ungrounded to myriad reasons why people choose ICE. ICE is going to coexist with EV's and whatever else comes around as a motivating power for decades. @dbsb3233 I would argue the same is true for the majority of buyers uninterested in EV's: They not avoiding them for political reasons, they just aren't compelling options to them.

I agree. It does not help EV adoption when EVs are purchased without education. Early adopters are willing to take on the challenges of limited infrastructure, range challenges, understanding of efficiency, charging adapters, need for home charging and all of the other things that most people are not ready for. Things are improving fast, but we don't need people buying EVs that don't take the time to be prepared for the change it brings. They will just turn into vocal haters. There is much to learn and most people just don't want to be bothered. My 2 cents.

 

[dbsb3233]

I would add that we (collective EV owners) need to back off the EV's are everyone's future mantra a bit. They might be, eventually, but to ICE fans its nothing more than a veiled endorsement of those trying to ban ICE. Some here are completely ungrounded to myriad reasons why people choose ICE. ICE is going to coexist with EV's and whatever else comes around as a motivating power for decades. @dbsb3233 I would argue the same is true for the majority of buyers uninterested in EV's: They not avoiding them for political reasons, they just aren't compelling options to them.

Agreed. The "agenda" has actually detracted from and gotten in the way of many people learning the virtues of EVs on their own merits. Not nearly enough effort is spent on selling potential customers on the benefit of home charging. If I were an EV manufacturer, that would be in every commercial.

People don't like to be told what they "better do, or else". Or be made to feel guilty, or extorted. What they like is to see how a product is useful to them, so they can make their own choice.

 

[dbsb3233]

Much of the lack of education by the public on EV benefits is circumstantial. It would usually come from advertising. But pure EV makers (Tesla, Rivian, Lucid) do almost no conventional advertising.

Meanwhile legacy automakers don't sell EV advantages very hard because they don't want to cannibalize their ICE sales (which are profitable, unlike their EV sales).

 

[Cosmo Cruz]

... what will happen to all the ICE vehicles ?

ICE and oil have long been partners. early ice ran on ethanol, which is corrosive and absorbs water. Rocketfeller had this waste from making kerosene: gasoline. can you use it in cars ?? yeah, but we have to add lead because we can and no one will stop us.

so we can recycle everything but the legacy

I've been gradually switching to Li batteries in my lawnmowers and string trimmer. do not miss oil at all.