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The Changing EV Climate in the U.S.

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hmp10

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In a recent interview R.J. Scaringe of Rivian spoke of how the growing antipathy toward EVs in the U.S. might have the small advantage of thinning out the competition for the pure-play EV manufacturers. But he and the author of the article mentioned Tesla and Rivian several times as those beneficiaries, never once mentioning Lucid.

What gives? I wouldn't expect Musk to mention Lucid, but I was a little surprised that Scaringe didn't.

 
hmp10 said:
In a recent interview R.J. Scaringe of Rivian spoke of how the growing antipathy toward EVs in the U.S. might have the small advantage of thinning out the competition for the pure-play EV manufacturers. But he and the author of the article mentioned Tesla and Rivian several times as those beneficiaries, never once mentioning Lucid.

What gives? I wouldn't expect Musk to mention Lucid, but I was a little surprised that Scaringe didn't.

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Noticed that as well. Didn't mention Polestar either. Assuming he was only considering the gorilla in the room (Tesla) and his own company. To be honest, when you ask most people about EV startups, most would only be able to think of Tesla. Rivian, Lucid and Polestar are still obscure to the general public, most people likely thinking they are Chinese (well, Polestar kind of is) or having no idea they are standalone brands,
 
Rivian is likely "looking up" focused squarely on Tesla. According to ChatGPT, in the last 3 quarters, Rivian shipped over 33K vehicles while Lucid shipped a bit less than 10K. I honestly don't think Rivian thinks that much about Lucid, at least until Gravity starts making a real dent in their sales. Remember...Rivian doesn't even sell sedans and Lucid until recently sold nothing but sedans.

I do agree with you however...in the medium- to long-term, Rivian will have to deal with Lucid as their SUVs should give Rivian a real problem once Lucid has solved production/delivery issues with Gravity.
 
Westchester Air said:
Rivian is likely "looking up" focused squarely on Tesla. According to ChatGPT, in the last 3 quarters, Rivian shipped over 33K vehicles while Lucid shipped a bit less than 10K. I honestly don't think Rivian thinks that much about Lucid, at least until Gravity starts making a real dent in their sales. Remember...Rivian doesn't even sell sedans and Lucid until recently sold nothing but sedans.

I do agree with you however...in the medium- to long-term, Rivian will have to deal with Lucid as their SUVs should give Rivian a real problem once Lucid has solved production/delivery issues with Gravity.
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Scaringe is an automotive engineer and apparently a pretty good one. If he's looking over his shoulder to see where the technology threats are coming from, he's looking over the wrong shoulder if what he sees is Tesla.
 
I thought he also admitted his premium products were also not the endgame as far as making a dent in EV adoption, once both Lucid and Rivian have their Mid-size actually debugged and around on the roads where people can see them being owned, I think there will be a big inflection. I see so many comments such as 'I can't afford an Air or R1 but hope they survive so I can get an R2 or Mid-Size Lucid'.
 
hmp10 said:
Scaringe is an automotive engineer and apparently a pretty good one. If he's looking over his shoulder to see where the technology threats are coming from, he's looking over the wrong shoulder if what he sees is Tesla.
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Meh. I'm sure he's looking over his shoulder and knows who Lucid is and what their tech looks like. And if he's really concerned, then he has every reason *not* to mention Lucid in an interview and give his competitor free brand exposure.
 
Westchester Air said:
Rivian is likely "looking up" focused squarely on Tesla. According to ChatGPT, in the last 3 quarters, Rivian shipped over 33K vehicles while Lucid shipped a bit less than 10K. I honestly don't think Rivian thinks that much about Lucid, at least until Gravity starts making a real dent in their sales. Remember...Rivian doesn't even sell sedans and Lucid until recently sold nothing but sedans.

I do agree with you however...in the medium- to long-term, Rivian will have to deal with Lucid as their SUVs should give Rivian a real problem once Lucid has solved production/delivery issues with Gravity.
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Right... if Lucid is ever able to ramp up production (it took Rivian and Tesla many years), then the competitive market will be Model Y vs RS2 vs Lucid Earth
 
I believe that Lucid's long-term 80/20 plan is very different than Tesla, Rivian or even BYD. There never was a goal to be a car company but rather the Intel or Nivdia of the EV industry. While EV "love" has quieted under Trump (and Musk), Administrations change, and the eventuality of alternate fuel transportation dominance remains. DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial analyst or engineer, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night.
 
Cosmo Cruz said:
I see all the ICE vehicles and wonder what will happen to them? I'm astonished people still buy ICE vehicles.
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If you live in an apartment or some other place without available home charging and also live in town/city without good charging infrestructure then ICE will dominate. This is even more so if your area has cheep gas prices. With the elimination of EV tax credit, this will become even more applicable. This is why I see many manufacturers reticent to dip into the low price EV market. Here in Texas, most apartments do not have on-site charging. Those that do are higher end apartments that are more likely to have owners with higher end cars. I am pro EV but also recognize that you will continue to see ICE cars (and particularly trucks) selling in big numbers for decades to come.
 
Bdr100 said:
If you live in an apartment or some other place without available home charging and also live in town/city without good charging infrestructure then ICE will dominate. This is even more so if your area has cheep gas prices. With the elimination of EV tax credit, this will become even more applicable. This is why I see many manufacturers reticent to dip into the low price EV market. Here in Texas, most apartments do not have on-site charging. Those that do are higher end apartments that are more likely to have owners with higher end cars. I am pro EV but also recognize that you will continue to see ICE cars (and particularly trucks) selling in big numbers for decades to come.
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This is the reason I've been arguing for several years that much of the key to EV adoption is in building codes. All new house, apartment, or condo construction and all major renovation projects should require provision for EV charging. It's as simple as providing for sufficient power service and NEMA 14-50 plugs on 50-amp circuits in most housing units.

Some people counter that you cannot use building codes to mandate such a thing, but building codes are literally volumes-long with many forward-looking requirements and specificity right down to how far apart framing nails can be in some jurisdictions.
 
Many states are requiring charging infrastructure be included in new home construction.

NYS requires all newly built 1-3 family homes to have one EV ready parking space (defined as conduit in place with sufficient electrical capacity at the load center). All new multiple family construction must include level 2 chargers for 20% of the parking spaces included in the construction and 100% of the parking included must be EV ready.
 
I honestly don’t think they will build broad charging infrastructure or change codes in red states unless more people have EVs. It’s a chicken and egg situation.

The majority of people still think of EVs as climate change mobiles or in some way associated with climate politics. It may be true that they are better environmentally but they are also better cars than ICE cars. More fun to drive, cheaper to operate, and the form factors are super flexible. Rivian and Lucid are showing that EVs can be differentiated and better than ICE cars. Small cheaper EVs are another vector that is a big opportunity. It just takes stunning amounts of money to build out the factory infrastructure since we have forbade Chinese manufactured vehicles. If the US can either produce or source cheaper batteries, I don’t think the tax credit elimination will be a big deal in a year or two.
 
I've always liked RJ, but some of the stuff he said in that article was rather annoying.

The US isn't "turning back to gas-powered vehicle expansion", they're just not handing out $7500 credits via taxpayers to EV buyers anymore. There's a big difference. I'm sure he's mad about the impact on his company's business since it was a benefactor of those $7500 customer subsidies, and having to compete without them now.

What he should be mad about the government handing out $7500 credits in the first place, then jacking them around to manipulate automakers, and suckering them into investing $billions on a premise that they should have known would surely get changed. I can't imagine having to run a business that's so dependent on that.

Personally, if they were gonna do anything to subsidize EVs, I think it should have just been left as the original program (200,000 credits to each manufacturer, then let it automatically expire). That a $1.5B subsidy for each manufacturer, helping them invest to "get in the game" with EVs. Simple, predictable, and reasonably fair (inasmuch as taxpayer subsidies can be considered fair). That never should have been changed to become open-ended, with all sorts of strings attached that screwed up nearly every manufacturer. Before eventually getting terminated altogether. Should have just self-terminated at 200k units each.
 
I agree. And the $10k of car loan interest deductions the new bill introduced may help offset the loss of the credits.
 
hmp10 said:
In a recent interview R.J. Scaringe of Rivian spoke of how the growing antipathy toward EVs in the U.S. might have the small advantage of thinning out the competition for the pure-play EV manufacturers. But he and the author of the article mentioned Tesla and Rivian several times as those beneficiaries, never once mentioning Lucid.

What gives? I wouldn't expect Musk to mention Lucid, but I was a little surprised that Scaringe didn't.

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He didn’t want to give Lucid some free advertising…..
 
Lester Atlas said:
I believe that Lucid's long-term 80/20 plan is very different than Tesla, Rivian or even BYD. There never was a goal to be a car company but rather the Intel or Nivdia of the EV industry. While EV "love" has quieted under Trump (and Musk), Administrations change, and the eventuality of alternate fuel transportation dominance remains. DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial analyst or engineer, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night.
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That was Rawlinson, maybe PIF wanted a different direction
 
nashvillelucid said:
The majority of people still think of EVs as climate change mobiles or in some way associated with climate politics.
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Yep, and it's a shame it was ever pushed that way. Frankly, we bought our EVs in spite of that, not because of that. We bought them simply because they're great products for our situation (owning a house and garage where we can take advantage of the biggest EV benefit - convenient home charging on cheap residential rates). But they're not for everyone. The government trying to push them on everyone, threatening to ban ICE, and handing a $7500 credit to the guy down the street because he chose an EV while he doesn't get the same credit for his new ICE really pissed people off, creating an "us vs them" wedge that never should have existed. It'll take years to erase that taint now. Damn shame, because EVs are great for many people. They probably ended up SLOWING adoption in the long run as a result.
 
Between 2009 and 2023- China spent 230 billion US dollars, some say 500 billion, supporting EVs, and that money goes a longer way in China. US would need to spend at least a trillion.

No matter what any “ Gov should not interfere” thinks, US Gov does interfere - defense, oil, research funding, etc., Gov policy does chose winners and losers depending on the whims of who is in power. We are not devoid of Gov support for industry. This support could be policy or funding. Unless you want other countries to run ahead- like China and its EV’s
 
Batteryman said:
If you want to stop China dominating the auto industry, you need subsidies, and you need more what the IRA offered. Biden partly destroyed it with his income and MSRP limits.

US will be left selling gas guzzlers in US. Rest of the world will move on to Chinese EVs. Trump knows this, he doesn’t care since he will be dead of old age by then.
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The US has been losing it's auto manufacturing dominance since the 1970s. First it was competition from Japan, then it was competition from Korea, soon it will be competition from China. If we can't make a competitive product, that's what needs to happen rather than handing out $billions in subsidies to prop up an non-competitive industry.

However, I'm not willing to declare the US auto industry non-competitive yet. They still are, just not on EVs (except Tesla). And I'm not so sure they won't get there. So much still depends on battery prices, and there's still a good chance those will fall by an order of magnitude if more breakthroughs are made.

And ICE/hybrid is far from dead. I've often said we're just 10 years into a 30 year EV transition.
big3.webp
 
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