Reverse Split

[pezpunk]

I don’t think it would make a blind bit of difference.

What will make the price move? Lucid getting the mid-market model out and starting mass production. Volume sales is what will drive the price up and maybe partnerships.

Correct.

Only two things will meaningfully impact the stock price at this point:

1. Revenue
2. Margins

And I only include #1 because margins are not going to budge for several years still. Proving that there is indeed demand for the gravity might help somewhat, but rolling out and ramping up new vehicle models absolutely murders margins. It’s expensive. Stable, scaled production is where margins get good, and they are not there yet with the Gravity, and still years away from that with a mass-market offering.

 

[WildRide47]

Correct.

Only two things will meaningfully impact the stock price at this point:

1. Revenue
2. Margins

And I only include #1 because margins are not going to budge for several years still. Proving that there is indeed demand for the gravity might help somewhat, but rolling out and ramping up new vehicle models absolutely murders margins. It’s expensive. Stable, scaled production is where margins get good, and they are not there yet with the Gravity, and still years away from that with a mass-market offering.

If they do a mass market offering of the mid sized sedan and it is rushed so that it has glitches and problems, then word will get around and sales will sputter. In order to succeed, they have to have outstanding service and reliability. Not everybody is willing to put up with problems immediately after they bought the car. That's a sure way to kill the brand. This forum consists for the most part buyers with automotive knowledge and patience. My wife and others I feel is more the norm where their patience is thin. They just want the car to work with minimum hassles or they let their friends know through the vast wives network. A rush to get the mid size out, IMO is a rush to failure. They have to get it right first.

 

[Wilber]

Only 30% of companies have long term growth after a RS. Some notables include Apple, Amazon, Citi, and Priceline. Hopefully Lucid will be in that minority but they’ve got some major headwinds. The launch and sales of Gravity was supposed to be a major catalyst but ended up hurting more than rallying. Moving on to the mid-size story now…

I’m such a sucker for the company and my car… bought more shares today

Gee, i used to be optimistic about the mid size program. and very glad that Cory Steuben is co-leading it. BUT the November US election radically changed my outlook. It seems clear the US economy is starting a recession and it could become a depression in 2026. NOT good for US car sales for any company! I'll hope for a little bump up in the stock price in the next few months and then cash out.

 

[WildRide47]

Gee, i used to be optimistic about the mid size program. and very glad that Cory Steuben is co-leading it. BUT the November US election radically changed my outlook. It seems clear the US economy is starting a recession and it could become a depression in 2026. NOT good for US car sales for any company! I'll hope for a little bump up in the stock price in the next few months and then cash out.

If you are that sure that the US is in for a recession or worse, then follow up your outlook by buying put options on the stocks you own for downside protection or you can short other auto stocks that you seem to be certain will decline in price. There are always ways to make money in both bull and bear markets. I quit my regular job at age 51 in 1999 and went full time trading stocks. Best decision I ever made even though I got clobbered in the bear market of 2000 and 2008. Have since way made up for it since then. What I have learned is that if you do your homework, the experts really are just doing a lot of guessing and it is not that hard to beat their returns. A few exceptions abound, but they are rare. I tend to follow my gut feelings after I have read everything I can on a company, and put a grain of salt on what the experts say since they really don't know. If you really believe the economy will be that bad in the near future, then bet your gut. I'm not sure at the present time, so I am waiting for more signs to emerge. At the moment I have loaded up on high dividend stocks and Treasuries, since I suspect the Donald will pressure the Fed to lower rates making those investments more attractive and hopefully increase in value. Will the car companies go in a downside, don't know, but I do know that Lear Corporation which makes car seats has seen its stock go from 90 to 110 in the last 1 month which is a positive sign. But that is only 1 sign so you may be right. Anyway sorry for the transgression to stock buying in general instead of how it pertains to Lucid.

 

[Wilber]

If you are that sure that the US is in for a recession or worse, then follow up your outlook by buying put options on the stocks you own for downside protection or you can short other auto stocks that you seem to be certain will decline in price. There are always ways to make money in both bull and bear markets. I quit my regular job at age 51 in 1999 and went full time trading stocks. Best decision I ever made even though I got clobbered in the bear market of 2000 and 2008. Have since way made up for it since then. What I have learned is that if you do your homework, the experts really are just doing a lot of guessing and it is not that hard to beat their returns. A few exceptions abound, but they are rare. I tend to follow my gut feelings after I have read everything I can on a company, and put a grain of salt on what the experts say since they really don't know. If you really believe the economy will be that bad in the near future, then bet your gut. I'm not sure at the present time, so I am waiting for more signs to emerge. At the moment I have loaded up on high dividend stocks and Treasuries, since I suspect the Donald will pressure the Fed to lower rates making those investments more attractive and hopefully increase in value. Will the car companies go in a downside, don't know, but I do know that Lear Corporation which makes car seats has seen its stock go from 90 to 110 in the last 1 month which is a positive sign. But that is only 1 sign so you may be right. Anyway sorry for the transgression to stock buying in general instead of how it pertains to Lucid.

You make a ton of sense! I have been thinking of Treasuries, but havent pulled the trigger. I am an ancient half senile old timer so I try not to push my luck with doing anything too fancy like puts. I certainly agree that those who do real research on a company and understand what it is doing, can do much better than the typical analyst who is spread out over tons of companies. I did that with TSLA and it served me well. Which reminds me that Teslas Model 3 rollout was different from what i expect the Lucid midsize rollout to be. The economy was doing well at the time for the Model 3 rollout AND the company and buyers had the benefit of various govt incentives. I dont expect any incentives for Lucid in 2026. Of course the Saudi Factory may help and sell cars in SA and EU, but doubt that will make a huge difference. Lemme know if you think i am wrong!

 

[WildRide47]

You make a ton of sense! I have been thinking of Treasuries, but havent pulled the trigger. I am an ancient half senile old timer so I try not to push my luck with doing anything too fancy like puts. I certainly agree that those who do real research on a company and understand what it is doing, can do much better than the typical analyst who is spread out over tons of companies. I did that with TSLA and it served me well. Which reminds me that Teslas Model 3 rollout was different from what i expect the Lucid midsize rollout to be. The economy was doing well at the time for the Model 3 rollout AND the company and buyers had the benefit of various govt incentives. I dont expect any incentives for Lucid in 2026. Of course the Saudi Factory may help and sell cars in SA and EU, but doubt that will make a huge difference. Lemme know if you think i am wrong!

If you don't want to do anything fancy like put options, selling call options on the stocks you presently own is a good way to pick up some extra money, if you think the market may go down in the near future. You can't lose selling a covered call option. You always get to keep the premium. The only downside is if the stock goes up, then you miss out on some potential upside, but if you sell a call option above your buy price you still get to keep the call premium plus the extra amount of the strike price above your buy price. Look it up, it's very safe and a smart move "if" you think we are going to be in a bad economy. You can't lose money on it, you just may not make as much if the stock climbs above your strike price. I think my AGT is a fantastic car(with a few faults), but at present I am not enthusiastic about the near term for Lucid stock. Everybody keeps saying that the Saudis will always be a backstop for Lucid. Maybe so, but maybe not. If Lucid keeps hemorrhaging money, they may want to limit their losses. The Saudis are not dummies and I doubt they will keep supporting Lucid if the midsize car is not a hit. This is why it is so important that Lucid makes sure that their service and reliability is outstanding. If not, word gets around and it will be very unhelpful for the future of Lucid to get back on its feet. When Tesla first came out, their car was in almost every auto show and in the malls of every major city. In the last 4 years, Lucid have yet to put a Lucid in the Portland Auto show and no cars in the local malls. Their marketing leaves much to be desired. Even today after 4 years, many people come up to me, admire my car and say they never heard of the Lucid brand. That is pretty disgraceful. Short term I am pessimistic, long term who knows maybe they can turn things around. I only invest when I have a strong gut feeling backed up with good reasons why a stock will outperform, then I invest very heavily. Until I feel otherwise, there are other stocks besides Lucid that I have been betting on lately that I feel offer a better chance of a good return, which is a shame because Lucid makes a great automobile.