Reverse Split

[pezpunk]

I don’t think it would make a blind bit of difference.

What will make the price move? Lucid getting the mid-market model out and starting mass production. Volume sales is what will drive the price up and maybe partnerships.

Correct.

Only two things will meaningfully impact the stock price at this point:

1. Revenue
2. Margins

And I only include #1 because margins are not going to budge for several years still. Proving that there is indeed demand for the gravity might help somewhat, but rolling out and ramping up new vehicle models absolutely murders margins. It’s expensive. Stable, scaled production is where margins get good, and they are not there yet with the Gravity, and still years away from that with a mass-market offering.

 

[WildRide47]

Correct.

Only two things will meaningfully impact the stock price at this point:

1. Revenue
2. Margins

And I only include #1 because margins are not going to budge for several years still. Proving that there is indeed demand for the gravity might help somewhat, but rolling out and ramping up new vehicle models absolutely murders margins. It’s expensive. Stable, scaled production is where margins get good, and they are not there yet with the Gravity, and still years away from that with a mass-market offering.

If they do a mass market offering of the mid sized sedan and it is rushed so that it has glitches and problems, then word will get around and sales will sputter. In order to succeed, they have to have outstanding service and reliability. Not everybody is willing to put up with problems immediately after they bought the car. That's a sure way to kill the brand. This forum consists for the most part buyers with automotive knowledge and patience. My wife and others I feel is more the norm where their patience is thin. They just want the car to work with minimum hassles or they let their friends know through the vast wives network. A rush to get the mid size out, IMO is a rush to failure. They have to get it right first.

 

[Wilber]

Only 30% of companies have long term growth after a RS. Some notables include Apple, Amazon, Citi, and Priceline. Hopefully Lucid will be in that minority but they’ve got some major headwinds. The launch and sales of Gravity was supposed to be a major catalyst but ended up hurting more than rallying. Moving on to the mid-size story now…

I’m such a sucker for the company and my car… bought more shares today

Gee, i used to be optimistic about the mid size program. and very glad that Cory Steuben is co-leading it. BUT the November US election radically changed my outlook. It seems clear the US economy is starting a recession and it could become a depression in 2026. NOT good for US car sales for any company! I'll hope for a little bump up in the stock price in the next few months and then cash out.

 

[WildRide47]

Gee, i used to be optimistic about the mid size program. and very glad that Cory Steuben is co-leading it. BUT the November US election radically changed my outlook. It seems clear the US economy is starting a recession and it could become a depression in 2026. NOT good for US car sales for any company! I'll hope for a little bump up in the stock price in the next few months and then cash out.

If you are that sure that the US is in for a recession or worse, then follow up your outlook by buying put options on the stocks you own for downside protection or you can short other auto stocks that you seem to be certain will decline in price. There are always ways to make money in both bull and bear markets. I quit my regular job at age 51 in 1999 and went full time trading stocks. Best decision I ever made even though I got clobbered in the bear market of 2000 and 2008. Have since way made up for it since then. What I have learned is that if you do your homework, the experts really are just doing a lot of guessing and it is not that hard to beat their returns. A few exceptions abound, but they are rare. I tend to follow my gut feelings after I have read everything I can on a company, and put a grain of salt on what the experts say since they really don't know. If you really believe the economy will be that bad in the near future, then bet your gut. I'm not sure at the present time, so I am waiting for more signs to emerge. At the moment I have loaded up on high dividend stocks and Treasuries, since I suspect the Donald will pressure the Fed to lower rates making those investments more attractive and hopefully increase in value. Will the car companies go in a downside, don't know, but I do know that Lear Corporation which makes car seats has seen its stock go from 90 to 110 in the last 1 month which is a positive sign. But that is only 1 sign so you may be right. Anyway sorry for the transgression to stock buying in general instead of how it pertains to Lucid.

 

[Wilber]

If you are that sure that the US is in for a recession or worse, then follow up your outlook by buying put options on the stocks you own for downside protection or you can short other auto stocks that you seem to be certain will decline in price. There are always ways to make money in both bull and bear markets. I quit my regular job at age 51 in 1999 and went full time trading stocks. Best decision I ever made even though I got clobbered in the bear market of 2000 and 2008. Have since way made up for it since then. What I have learned is that if you do your homework, the experts really are just doing a lot of guessing and it is not that hard to beat their returns. A few exceptions abound, but they are rare. I tend to follow my gut feelings after I have read everything I can on a company, and put a grain of salt on what the experts say since they really don't know. If you really believe the economy will be that bad in the near future, then bet your gut. I'm not sure at the present time, so I am waiting for more signs to emerge. At the moment I have loaded up on high dividend stocks and Treasuries, since I suspect the Donald will pressure the Fed to lower rates making those investments more attractive and hopefully increase in value. Will the car companies go in a downside, don't know, but I do know that Lear Corporation which makes car seats has seen its stock go from 90 to 110 in the last 1 month which is a positive sign. But that is only 1 sign so you may be right. Anyway sorry for the transgression to stock buying in general instead of how it pertains to Lucid.

You make a ton of sense! I have been thinking of Treasuries, but havent pulled the trigger. I am an ancient half senile old timer so I try not to push my luck with doing anything too fancy like puts. I certainly agree that those who do real research on a company and understand what it is doing, can do much better than the typical analyst who is spread out over tons of companies. I did that with TSLA and it served me well. Which reminds me that Teslas Model 3 rollout was different from what i expect the Lucid midsize rollout to be. The economy was doing well at the time for the Model 3 rollout AND the company and buyers had the benefit of various govt incentives. I dont expect any incentives for Lucid in 2026. Of course the Saudi Factory may help and sell cars in SA and EU, but doubt that will make a huge difference. Lemme know if you think i am wrong!

 

[WildRide47]

You make a ton of sense! I have been thinking of Treasuries, but havent pulled the trigger. I am an ancient half senile old timer so I try not to push my luck with doing anything too fancy like puts. I certainly agree that those who do real research on a company and understand what it is doing, can do much better than the typical analyst who is spread out over tons of companies. I did that with TSLA and it served me well. Which reminds me that Teslas Model 3 rollout was different from what i expect the Lucid midsize rollout to be. The economy was doing well at the time for the Model 3 rollout AND the company and buyers had the benefit of various govt incentives. I dont expect any incentives for Lucid in 2026. Of course the Saudi Factory may help and sell cars in SA and EU, but doubt that will make a huge difference. Lemme know if you think i am wrong!

If you don't want to do anything fancy like put options, selling call options on the stocks you presently own is a good way to pick up some extra money, if you think the market may go down in the near future. You can't lose selling a covered call option. You always get to keep the premium. The only downside is if the stock goes up, then you miss out on some potential upside, but if you sell a call option above your buy price you still get to keep the call premium plus the extra amount of the strike price above your buy price. Look it up, it's very safe and a smart move "if" you think we are going to be in a bad economy. You can't lose money on it, you just may not make as much if the stock climbs above your strike price. I think my AGT is a fantastic car(with a few faults), but at present I am not enthusiastic about the near term for Lucid stock. Everybody keeps saying that the Saudis will always be a backstop for Lucid. Maybe so, but maybe not. If Lucid keeps hemorrhaging money, they may want to limit their losses. The Saudis are not dummies and I doubt they will keep supporting Lucid if the midsize car is not a hit. This is why it is so important that Lucid makes sure that their service and reliability is outstanding. If not, word gets around and it will be very unhelpful for the future of Lucid to get back on its feet. When Tesla first came out, their car was in almost every auto show and in the malls of every major city. In the last 4 years, Lucid have yet to put a Lucid in the Portland Auto show and no cars in the local malls. Their marketing leaves much to be desired. Even today after 4 years, many people come up to me, admire my car and say they never heard of the Lucid brand. That is pretty disgraceful. Short term I am pessimistic, long term who knows maybe they can turn things around. I only invest when I have a strong gut feeling backed up with good reasons why a stock will outperform, then I invest very heavily. Until I feel otherwise, there are other stocks besides Lucid that I have been betting on lately that I feel offer a better chance of a good return, which is a shame because Lucid makes a great automobile.

 

[Batteryman]

If you don't want to do anything fancy like put options, selling call options on the stocks you presently own is a good way to pick up some extra money, if you think the market may go down in the near future. You can't lose selling a covered call option. You always get to keep the premium. The only downside is if the stock goes up, then you miss out on some potential upside, but if you sell a call option above your buy price you still get to keep the call premium plus the extra amount of the strike price above your buy price. Look it up, it's very safe and a smart move "if" you think we are going to be in a bad economy. You can't lose money on it, you just may not make as much if the stock climbs above your strike price. I think my AGT is a fantastic car(with a few faults), but at present I am not enthusiastic about the near term for Lucid stock. Everybody keeps saying that the Saudis will always be a backstop for Lucid. Maybe so, but maybe not. If Lucid keeps hemorrhaging money, they may want to limit their losses. The Saudis are not dummies and I doubt they will keep supporting Lucid if the midsize car is not a hit. This is why it is so important that Lucid makes sure that their service and reliability is outstanding. If not, word gets around and it will be very unhelpful for the future of Lucid to get back on its feet. When Tesla first came out, their car was in almost every auto show and in the malls of every major city. In the last 4 years, Lucid have yet to put a Lucid in the Portland Auto show and no cars in the local malls. Their marketing leaves much to be desired. Even today after 4 years, many people come up to me, admire my car and say they never heard of the Lucid brand. That is pretty disgraceful. Short term I am pessimistic, long term who knows maybe they can turn things around. I only invest when I have a strong gut feeling backed up with good reasons why a stock will outperform, then I invest very heavily. Until I feel otherwise, there are other stocks besides Lucid that I have been betting on lately that I feel offer a better chance of a good return, which is a shame because Lucid makes a great automobile.

I’m optimistic their marketing will get better. But cars on the road is the best marketing. The consistent talk of “ will Lucid make it” doesn’t help.

I’m hoping the Gravity Touring will kickstart a second wave of sales.

 

[NoseyReporter]

I was in SB this weekend, and parked the Gravity in one of the main lots across the beach. While I went to pay for parking, a gentleman started walking around the car. As I came back, he mentioned to me that he didn't know Lucid made a wagon.

I saying here and saying it first, Timothy sucks at his job.

All jokes aside, several people I've come across know what the Gravity is. They are all very excited to see one, and a few even have placed orders or considered placing orders. But the fast majority of EV owners are absolutely clueless. These are the people who buy a model 3 or model y because Tesla was/is the cool car to have. The followers.

Give it time. All of us here, we are way ahead of the curve. The RS was very unfortunate, and I wish it didn't need to be done. Lucid will get there, I can see it in the enthusiasm of people when they see the car. The problem right now is that it's expensive. You don't own a 3/Y and consider a Gravity, at least most are not in a position to make that happen.

 

[WildRide47]

I’m optimistic their marketing will get better. But cars on the road is the best marketing. The consistent talk of “ will Lucid make it” doesn’t help.

I’m hoping the Gravity Touring will kickstart a second wave of sales.

Cars on the road is fine, if people will buy the car. That is not the case here in Oregon. I almost never see another Lucid. However, having Lucid at all the car shows and having a Lucid at all the major malls makes so much more sense, as people will be exposed to the car every time they go into the mall. Tesla when they first came out also let people test drive the car when they are at the malls. You can be as optimistic as you want that the marketing will get better. I look for results or plans that make sense before I invest in a stock. Optimism has to be based on something concrete besides wishful thinking. Hiring Timothy C as ambassador for Lucid I don't see that making much difference that will cause people to buy the car. Have you ever bought anything because a celebrity (who gets paid to do this)recommended this. That being said, I never rule anything out and maybe Lucid will hire the right people and get the marketing right, but I am waiting to see that happen. Hopefully, Lucid turns itself around and the stock takes off as I have no desire to own an orphan car.

 

[sri]

Its only 15% down post spit and 50% down since announcement. Great achievement Lucid.

 

[HC_79]

Its only 15% dont post spit and 50% down since announcement. Great achievement Lucid.

Sad. Especially when Rivian and Tesla are up today.

 

[merveille07]

I am no expert in investing, but I think nothing will move until Lucid start delivering car constantly (and I mean cars as problems free as possible). Lucid can do all the ads or promo they want, but until that delivery number starts beating Wall street expectations by a mile; we should alk buckle up for the rough ride.

 

[David2025]

In round numbers bought 5000 shares middle of June at $2. Sold middle of July at $3.50. I figured that at $2 I couldn't lose much as there is some floor / basic asset value to the company. After the reverse split this no longer applies. I intend to get back in but sadly I believe the price will drop 35%+ over the short term based solely upon the reverse split. While Lucid "MAY" gain the possibility of institutional investors they almost certainly lose all the little guy EV / Lucid believers.

As to those Institutional Investors I do not believe it really applies. What such investors are going to invest large sums where give or take 60% of the stock is controlled by a foreign fund? Just my 2cents from a generally conservative investor. Yes, I know Lucid is not a conservative investment hence generally.

 

[Batteryman]

Sad. Especially when Rivian and Tesla are up today.

Yeah, it’s terrible. But well deserved for Gravity 6 month delay and software issues. Hopefully Gravity sales will help, and they should get the Touring out in October!

Threat of dilution is keeping investors away. Maybe they should just rip the bandaid off instead of trickling in bad news.

Also, Rivian R2 will beat Lucid midsize to market, not good at all!

 

[Pragmatic]

Also, Rivian R2 will beat Lucid midsize to market, not good at all!

As will new BMW.

 

[Batteryman]

Coming out with a sedan is the wrong thing to do, they should have then pivoted to midsize, but no, they had to build a $100k Gravity! And they delayed the Gravity a year. And then they didn’t get their supply chain in order. Trying to make the perfect car ( which they failed at with software) is not the solution. They should have worked on midsize and get it out before the R2. This was obvious to me 2 years ago….

But here we are in a vicious cycle, going bankrupt nonsense drops sales, dilution threat, dropped stock price, worry about viability, dropped sales. They have been in this cocoon for half a decade…..

If Gravity sales/ production misses, they are toast! That’s why the huge sell off! Wall Street doesn’t trust this management! The messed up with Air and now Gravity!

 

[WildRide47]

As will new BMW.

I agree. Another time bomb waiting to happen, is what do owners do when their warranty expires and they live hundreds of miles from the nearest service center. I highly doubt any owner will be willing to pay thousands of dollars just for transportation costs both ways just to get their car serviced. Lucid seems to me to be reactive to problems rather than proactive. When they sold their name to Lucid Financial Services which is not a Lucid company, they lost control of how LFS handles lease returns. When the complaints started to come in, Lucid for the most part put its head in the sand and only took it seriously when the complaints were telegraphed over to the national media. This should have been nipped in the bud. Likewise, what is Lucid waiting for about the warranty expirations?? Are they waiting for the bad media coverage to occur before they confront this problem. How about being proactive rather than reactive and get this settled before the bad PR soon starts to spread. How many potential owners are going to buy a Lucid if after 4 years, they have to pay round trip transportation costs for their car's service. I suspect this will be a major hit to the company unless they start coming up with a way to alleviate the potential costs. Who do you think buyers will consider for their next midsize EV. The new BMW neue class mid size sedan coming out in 2026-27 where you can go to the dealership for service after warranty expiration or a Lucid where you have to pay for your transportation costs which can run into the thousands of dollars. This needs to be addressed now, not later when bad PR starts to creep in.

 

[sri]

Now Lucid stock is lower than its cash value

 

[Batteryman]

I agree. Another time bomb waiting to happen, is what do owners do when their warranty expires and they live hundreds of miles from the nearest service center. I highly doubt any owner will be willing to pay thousands of dollars just for transportation costs both ways just to get their car serviced. Lucid seems to me to be reactive to problems rather than proactive. When they sold their name to Lucid Financial Services which is not a Lucid company, they lost control of how LFS handles lease returns. When the complaints started to come in, Lucid for the most part put its head in the sand and only took it seriously when the complaints were telegraphed over to the national media. This should have been nipped in the bud. Likewise, what is Lucid waiting for about the warranty expirations?? Are they waiting for the bad media coverage to occur before they confront this problem. How about being proactive rather than reactive and get this settled before the bad PR soon starts to spread. How many potential owners are going to buy a Lucid if after 4 years, they have to pay round trip transportation costs for their car's service. I suspect this will be a major hit to the company unless they start coming up with a way to alleviate the potential costs. Who do you think buyers will consider for their next midsize EV. The new BMW neue class mid size sedan coming out in 2026-27 where you can go to the dealership for service after warranty expiration or a Lucid where you have to pay for your transportation costs which can run into the thousands of dollars. This needs to be addressed now, not later when bad PR starts to creep in.

Lucid management is not proactive or are they nimble enough to pivot. This is the real problem.

 

[nashvillelucid]

not financial advice, but obviously their tech, software, innovations and cash are worth more than just the cash. The stock has a huge overhang of buyers who bought in 2021 at a horrible price. Some are running for the doors. That’s actually not a terrible thing. Their negativity is its own form of marketing overhang. They shout negative things constantly because they have irrationally suffered. Not saying the stock goes up from here, would never call a bottom on any stock, but it does look tempting as an entry point.