Q2 deliveries

[steveairgt]

Hi all
Since we are now at the end of Q2, we await Lucid’s numbers.

For those who watch Bears Workshop did you notice how many cars are unwrapped over the past several videos? Only a few are wrapped awaiting delivery.

In yesterday’s video over 200 were unwrapped and maybe 30 were wrapped.

I would assume that they can’t count a car that’s not ready for delivery and still waiting parts to be counted as “produced “. Agreed ?

It does seem they are building a lot to the 99% level.

Your thoughts on this quarter?

 

[joec]

Q2 numbers will be terrible. We've always pretty much known they'd be bad, but they will be even worse than anticipated. From just about every company on the planet, but particularly Lucid.

I am very curious about what will be said about moving forward, though. Will they try and paint a rosy picture of Q3 and 4, or will they try and set expectations downward again? Do they believe the supply-chain issues are going to continue far longer than anticipated? Do they think they've finally nailed down their production process, thus shortening the time from confirmation to delivery?

What are the remaining barriers to ramping up?

And most importantly, will they announce that Touring will begin production on schedule? I suspect we'll know the answer to that before the earnings call, if Touring reservers start getting confirmation emails in the next two weeks.

 

[DeaneG]

I'll be surprised if LCID doesn't re-test its recent low. Though I suppose this may already be baked in.

 

[Sandvinsd]

Most of this we will know before the conference call which won’t be until late August. They pushed out a bunch to get their production numbers less dismal for Q2. But, as they did with the Q1 earnings, they will point to some July and August numbers for a positive spin. Remember, the supply chain issues were supposed to be solved by June, per Q1 cc. Were they? I will be curious as to whether they can reiterate the 12-14k 2022 numbers or whether they will use the supply chain excuse as to why it won’t be met.

I expect Q3 productions numbers to show a nice ramp (if for no other reason than the comparison number is in the toilet). If supply chain issues were solved, there should be a very steep ramp. I think you will hear on the forum that timelines will get closer to normal and not like my experience. I certainly hope so as not only will I own the car, but I am also an investor. Tourings won’t be delivered until Q4 (Dec likely) and production will start in Q3 (Sept. likely). I will be surprised if the first batch of touring “to comfirm“ emails are not sent before the end of July, and probably within the first two weeks. Remember, there are fewer T than GT in the reservations. with Ramping they should be done with Tourings by Q2 next year and on Pure’s. Perhaps earlier if they only do the high end Tourings before bringing on Pure production and the metal roof versions

 

[LCIDdreams]

This was my theoretical path (as of the last earnings call) for them to meet their 12k-14k 2022 production guidance (not deliveries)
Q1: 700+
Q2: 1540
Q3: 3388
Q4: 7453
Total: 13081

I figured 10k for the year more likely than the above.

The above numbers are based on consistent 2.2x quarter over quarter growth. I think it’s fair to say at this point given the production delays, 1,540 cars for Q2 is probably not happening.

 

[HC_79]

This was my theoretical path (as of the last earnings call) for them to meet their 12k-14k 2022 production guidance (not deliveries)
Q1: 700+
Q2: 1540
Q3: 3388
Q4: 7453
Total: 13081

I figured 10k for the year more likely than the above.

The above numbers are based on consistent 2.2x quarter over quarter growth. I think it’s fair to say at this point given the production delays, 1,540 cars for Q2 is probably not happening.

I think Q2 might be hovering around the 1000 mark

 

[steveairgt]

I think Q2 might be hovering around the 1000 mark

Can they count the cars we see in the parking lot that are unwrapped? I would think not since they’re are not ready for delivery. Otherwise they would be wrapped.
Any idea how they would account for those unwrapped cars?

I would assume they couldn’t count them as “produced”.

 

[hydbob]

My guess is there is a threshold for what "Produced" means. For example, if the car is mostly dome but only waiting on 1 part i.e.the bowtie, that would be considered produced.

 

[CLTGT]

“Produced“ is a seriously loose term. It is not GAAP and is just a piece of inventory that they can choose to break out or not. If they do, they have to state their policy in thei Notes to their financials and be consistent.

 

[whywar]

Here is what we know:
Q4 21 125
Q1 22 360
April 22 300
May25 Recall of 1117 implies 332 for the May 1-May25 period. Missing data for 6 days-- 60-70 cars?
June ? Tracker data gives us an estimate of 340
Lucid is producing 10 -12 car/day in Q2
Q2 should be between 1000 and 1200

 

[HariK]

Here is what we know:
Q4 21 125
Q1 22 360
April 22 300
May25 Recall of 1117 implies 332 for the May 1-May25 period. Missing data for 6 days-- 60-70 cars?
June ? Tracker data gives us an estimate of 340
Lucid is producing 10 -12 car/day in Q2
Q2 should be between 1000 and 1200

I agree. I think if they do Q1 360 Q2 1200 Q3 3000 Q4 6000 it adds up to about 10,500. Even that is a stretch. Hope they will be more transparent about what components are needed to finish the cars. As a stock holder, I agree that the current stock price already factored in max 10k or so this year.

 

[LCIDdreams]

“Produced“ is a seriously loose term. It is not GAAP and is just a piece of inventory that they can choose to break out or not. If they do, they have to state their policy in thei Notes to their financials and be consistent.

I would think produced probably *should* mean essentially ready to deliver. If a car is being held at a factory and can’t ship out until a missing part is installed I’m not sure that counts. Will be interesting how GM reports given the announcement yesterday that they have 95k cars produced but sitting outside the factory waiting for chips.

 

[Sandvinsd]

I don’t know how haw Lucid defines produced, but I define it as shipped from the factory or at least finished, wrapped ad awaiting transport.

 

[HariK]

I don’t know how haw Lucid defines produced, but I define it as shipped from the factory or at least finished, wrapped ad awaiting transport.

Yes. Produced should mean exactly that.