Speculation Lucid stock to $10 in 2026

[SaaSManKS]

I'm increasingly concerned about the company’s operational trajectory. To meet its baseline 2025 guidance, they would need to double both production and deliveries from the first three quarters within Q4 alone an unrealistic lift under current conditions.


What’s more troubling is the decision to combine Air and Gravity delivery figures, which effectively obscures the SUV’s production shortfalls. When I reviewed the delivery threads, there were only a handful of confirmed Gravity deliveries. Yes, not everyone reports online but even as a sample, it’s telling. If only five out of hundreds of active owners have taken delivery, that’s a serious gap. Whether you model that as 5/500 or 5/1000, the extrapolated volume simply doesn’t align with their stated targets.


Layer on macro factors such as a soft economy, elevated interest rates, waning EV tax credit benefits, and inflation and it’s hard to see how this holds. The average transaction price sits around $115K, roughly equivalent to an Escalade, which offers a far more mature product: better software reliability, superior audio, more capable driver assistance, and stronger service infrastructure.


And I’m not even an Escalade fan, but from a risk-adjusted standpoint, it’s a far safer bet. Better ROI, predictable ownership, and a frictionless customer experience. With Lucid right now, you just don’t know what you’re getting.

 

[Halodde]

No disagreement. But I never had high expectations for the gravity to move the needle. Lucid still doesn't have a product for anyone other than folks who can afford a high end luxury vehicle.

The mid-size, however, is likely going to be the determining factor for any significant sales and the company's financial salvation. Just my opinion obviously

 

[SaaSManKS]

The software was supposed to be the comp advantage and it's turned out to be the detractor, the mid-size won't matter if they can't get that dialed in.

 

[azguy]

One should remember that it took Tesla 17 years to make a profit. Lucid's Mid East benefactors seem to be in for the long haul and are building a plant there. I think the cars are great (software cleanup needed, but progress is being made). I can't be positive they will make it, but I'l like to see a great product succeed.

 

[BS8899]

The software was supposed to be the comp advantage and it's turned out to be the detractor, the mid-size won't matter if they can't get that dialed in.

Lucid also needs a much more available service network in order to scale. Hard to imagine selling 25,000/50,000 cars per year with a sparse service network and mobile techs.

 

[The_Don]

Doesn't seem like any analysts think they're achieving their guidance of 18k-20k, so don't think them not meeting that should drive any changes in stock price.

Air deliveries at the beginning of this year are probably the max you can expect for that car, so don't think it should be too hard to deduce how many of their vehicles are gravity.

Assuming you're not talking about the EV Escalade, which is notably more expensive than the gravity. Would expect their touring model releasing this year would be fairly competitive on price among its comp set. Escalade provides more reliable software and better service network, though don't think meaningfully better in audio or driver assistance.

Lucid needs to build out their service network, but don't think it makes sense for them to do that at current production levels.

 

[The_Don]

Would also add that a lot of people looking at the gravity have no interest in purchasing a vehicle as large as the Escalade. Given relatively small size and lower price of touring, buyers could be cross shopping with MX, X7, X5, GLS, Rivian, Cayenne, etc.

 

[merveille07]

I'm increasingly concerned about the company’s operational trajectory. To meet its baseline 2025 guidance, they would need to double both production and deliveries from the first three quarters within Q4 alone an unrealistic lift under current conditions.


What’s more troubling is the decision to combine Air and Gravity delivery figures, which effectively obscures the SUV’s production shortfalls. When I reviewed the delivery threads, there were only a handful of confirmed Gravity deliveries. Yes, not everyone reports online but even as a sample, it’s telling. If only five out of hundreds of active owners have taken delivery, that’s a serious gap. Whether you model that as 5/500 or 5/1000, the extrapolated volume simply doesn’t align with their stated targets.


Layer on macro factors such as a soft economy, elevated interest rates, waning EV tax credit benefits, and inflation and it’s hard to see how this holds. The average transaction price sits around $115K, roughly equivalent to an Escalade, which offers a far more mature product: better software reliability, superior audio, more capable driver assistance, and stronger service infrastructure.


And I’m not even an Escalade fan, but from a risk-adjusted standpoint, it’s a far safer bet. Better ROI, predictable ownership, and a frictionless customer experience. With Lucid right now, you just don’t know what you’re getting.

I have no reason to doubt Mark on his production guidance. I believe they will reach the 18000 goal at least. Lucid stock isn't going to 10 dollars. Most software issues will be fixed before end of year. If we believe in the product, we should also trust the company to deliver, at least until they don't.

 

[SaaSManKS]

I have no reason to doubt Mark on his production guidance. I believe they will reach the 18000 goal at least. Lucid stock isn't going to 10 dollars. Most software issues will be fixed before end of year. If we believe in the product, we should also trust the company to deliver, at least until they don't.

I'm just thinking about the countless threads since this forum started about radio issues, drive train faults, and V2H having been delayed for years now.

Would also add that a lot of people looking at the gravity have no interest in purchasing a vehicle as large as the Escalade. Given relatively small size and lower price of touring, buyers could be cross shopping with MX, X7, X5, GLS, Rivian, Cayenne, etc.

Perhaps you're right about the size, but the Gravity does not have a lower price point. If you are referencing the $80K base, who wants to spend that kind of money for the most technologically advanced car on the market to not have DDP or any of the other features that are carved out....Clearly not many as represented by the Gravity order tracking thread. I hear you on your comment about the audio system, but I disagree, and I think many others do too based on the threads about

 

[The_Don]

Perhaps you're right about the size, but the Gravity does not have a lower price point. If you are referencing the $80K base, who wants to spend that kind of money for the most technologically advanced car on the market to not have DDP or any of the other features that are carved out....Clearly not many as represented by the Gravity order tracking thread. I hear you on your comment about the audio system, but I disagree, and I think many others do too based on the threads about

You can get almost all of their options for between $15k-$20k total, so a touring that is well optioned will be under $100k, similar to pricing for the Air. That is competitive with all the vehicles I mentioned. Seemed like folks across the board thought gravity audio (upgraded one) was solid, so assuming you're referencing the base audio.

 

[SaaSManKS]

You can get almost all of their options for between $15k-$20k total, so a touring that is well optioned will be under $100k, similar to pricing for the Air. That is competitive with all the vehicles I mentioned. Seemed like folks across the board thought gravity audio (upgraded one) was solid, so assuming you're referencing the base audio.

I mean you're entitled to your opinion, but I believe that to be False, the upgraded system is one of the worst I've ever owned.

The base Gravity is $94K and doesn't include SSP, DDP, or third row...

 

[The_Don]

I mean you're entitled to your opinion, but I believe that to be False, the upgraded system is one of the worst I've ever owned.

The base Gravity is $94K and doesn't include SSP, DDP, or third row...

There is an entire WSJ article praising the Gravity's audio system along with multiple reviewers doing the same. Don't think I'm in the minority here.

I was talking about touring pricing, which is not available for purchase yet.

"The Lucid Gravity is an upcoming all-electric, three-row luxury SUV, with the Grand Touring model being the first available version. The Touring version is expected to be a more entry-level model, with a starting price of $79,900 and orders opening late 2025, while the Grand Touring starts at $94,900 and is available to order now."

 

[SaaSManKS]

well I'm sure the 10 people who've gotten their deliveries of the Gravity love the sound system. I guess all these other OEM's are wasting their money with high end components and large magnets for the drivers in their stereos.

 

[The_Don]

well I'm sure the 10 people who've gotten their deliveries of the Gravity love the sound system. I guess all these other OEM's are wasting their money with high end components and large magnets for the drivers in their stereos.

Seems like you're upset with me and I'm not sure why. I'm just quoting what trusted reviewers have said?

 

[SaaSManKS]

Seems like you're upset with me and I'm not sure why. I'm just quoting what trusted reviewers have said?

Nooo I’m just a dry sense of humor.

 

[JoeSchmo]

well I'm sure the 10 people who've gotten their deliveries of the Gravity love the sound system. I guess all these other OEM's are wasting their money with high end components and large magnets for the drivers in their stereos.

to your point, i dont think they are wasting their money per se. But if the sound system isnt correctly adjusted for the acoustics of the car, its not a great experience no matter how good the hardware. But like you said, high end hardware can help mitigate some of those issues thru masking, balance, adding tweeters, etc.. But its not a guaranteed outcome.

likewise i have heard a well compensated/adjusted sound system that is very cheap in comparison to high end hardware to sound better by acoustic measurements(read: not necessarily by hearing, which is completely subjective).

 

[Blue Lectroid]

well I'm sure the 10 people who've gotten their deliveries of the Gravity love the sound system. I guess all these other OEM's are wasting their money with high end components and large magnets for the drivers in their stereos.

There have now been many hundreds of Gravities delivered…not sure what you're talking about. Also, there are several audiophiles on this Board who are among those and are very impressed with the sound system…

 

[Pragmatic]

There have now been many hundreds of Gravities delivered

I'm unsure why Lucid does not break out sales and production by model. No real downside to releasing the data. The lack of breakout feeds speculation that sales are worse than they are and rumors that Lucid is trying to hide bad news.

 

[illopp00]

I have no reason to doubt Mark on his production guidance. I believe they will reach the 18000 goal at least. Lucid stock isn't going to 10 dollars. Most software issues will be fixed before end of year. If we believe in the product, we should also trust the company to deliver, at least until they don't.

Yes but I think they are 8 months behind on Gravity ramp up as far as delivering at a steady rate, in grand scheme of things in the age of the company it's not going to matter over the next 5 years.

 

[Gravitas]

Would also add that a lot of people looking at the gravity have no interest in purchasing a vehicle as large as the Escalade. Given relatively small size and lower price of touring, buyers could be cross shopping with MX, X7, X5, GLS, Rivian, Cayenne, etc.

Personally, we are never buying ICE vehicles in our household again.
When out of warranty, their maintenance is very expensive; especially German ones.

Before Gravity, I never considered an EV. R1S was never an option (has a face only a mother would love). The X7 was supposed to replace my current X5.

Needless to say, I am very anxious to take delivery of my Gravity as soon as the HUD is available. And then onto the Midsize SUV for my wife in 2026/2027.