Speculation Lucid stock to $10 in 2026

[SaaSManKS]

its def not the same game for them.

 

[TahoeMichael]

It amazes me that people think this is big money for Saudi PIF to be losing. The investment they’ve made in Lucid is probably like $10 to the rest of us, it’s nothing.

If they want to recoup their current loss on Lucid investment they simply need to increase the price of oil by an extra $2 a barrel and will probably have the money back by days end.

The Saudis can afford to lose a few billion. But I doubt that the staff running the investment fund think they there's no consequences for them if they blow billions on bad investments.

 

[SaaSManKS]

Okay. You're technically correct, in that buying the assets at bankruptcy would allow them to walk away from any liabilities. But it doesn't change my point. You don't put billions into an auto maker and view it as a win to buy the assets on the cheap after it fails.

omg, they didn't buy in at market rates either, they get convertible notes, and restructured share classes that benefit them, like buying in at the SPAC, and referencing the comment from @HC_79 it's not billions, to them, it's like $10. win win

 

[merveille07]

omg, they didn't buy in at market rates either, they get convertible notes, and restructured share classes that benefit them, like buying in at the SPAC, and referencing the comment from @HC_79 it's not billions, to them, it's like $10. win win

You have your opinion and you are convinced of it. Why even open a thread on it?

 

[SaaSManKS]

You have your opinion and you are convinced of it. Why even open a thread on it?

Well I guess opening a thread like this on a fan boy forum might not have been the best idea, however I guess I was curious if anyone else agreed or if there was really just that much
Kool-aide

All anyone rebuttals with here is admiration and blindless hope. One guy said "hundreds" of Gravity's have been delivered, but no facts around it.

It is amazing to watch though

 

[Bobby]

Well I guess opening a thread like this on a fan boy forum might not have been the best idea, however I guess I was curious if anyone else agreed or if there was really just that much
Kool-aide

All anyone rebuttals with here is admiration and blindless hope. One guy said "hundreds" of Gravity's have been delivered, but no facts around it.

It is amazing to watch though

I almost deleted your post but since it didn’t personally attack any specific other user, I left it. That said, your tone really isn’t as friendly as we are hoping for here on the forum. Just because somebody has different opinions than you, or just because somebody really likes, or even admires, Lucid does not mean that you should start with name-calling. Let’s all act like adults here.

 

[ac.bill]

They were nowhere near losing their NASDAQ listing, The lowest the stock went to was $16 ($1.60) and it's gone but up into the $20's ever since. To be delisted you must fall under $1 and be under it for 30 days straight.

This is correct. The stated and obvious reason for the reverse split was to make LCID available to a wide audience of investment funds for future funding rounds. A great deal of capital is still needed and most large funds have internal rules against purchasing "penny stocks" valued under $5. The Saudis will no doubt maintain a controlling stake with future issues but having commercial investors able to pick up the other 40% makes the process less dramatic (and less costly to them). For the company to approach profitability Lucid will need to greatly increase its physical footprint. Its plants, existing and under construction, cannot scale to Model Y equivalent production volumes. A typical (if there is such a thing) A-Z car manufacturing plant costs about $3-5B. Raising those funds will be easier with Gravity successfully ramping and the first mid-size being revealed next year.

 

[lcidson]

That is straight false, I work in these markets you are wrong they were on probation with their stock price...

Nasdaq Tier	Key thresholds / criteria (one of several standards)
Nasdaq Global Market / Global Select	• Minimum bid price of $4.00 per share at listing. Listing Center+4Baker McKenzie Resource Hub+4Listing Center+4

That's a requirement for an initial listing on the NASDAQ. For probation to kick in you need to have your share price at closing be less than $1 for 30 consecutive days.

 

[HC_79]

That's a requirement for an initial listing on the NASDAQ. For probation to kick in you need to have your share price at closing be less than $1 for 30 consecutive days.

Love it when someone tries to prove you wrong with the “I work in these markets…” then the fact they try to argue with you on shows they’ve got no idea what they’re talking about

 

[SaaSManKS]

I almost deleted your post but since it didn’t personally attack any specific other user, I left it. That said, your tone really isn’t as friendly as we are hoping here on the forum if. Just because somebody has different opinions than you, or just because somebody really likes, or even admires, Lucid does not mean that you should start with name-calling. Let’s all act like adults here.

I didn't name call anyone, I'm merely highlighting the inability of the consensus here to be constructive. I mean, the guy who started Sirius got on and said he was disappointed in the performance of the radio integration, and people are constantly saying "just pull over and reset your car!" My apologies, none of these are meant to attack any one individual.

 

[Adnillien]

I didn't name call anyone, I'm merely highlighting the inability of the consensus here to be constructive.

Well I guess opening a thread like this on a fan boy forum might not have been the best idea, however I guess I was curious if anyone else agreed or if there was really just that much
Kool-aide

You certainly did name call everyone here that disagrees with you as a fan boy which is dismissive to both the adults here and the females here and is a put down to the open discussion that we encourage on the forum. Further more, your Kool-aide reference implies that anyone that disagrees with is part a mindless cult. Very insulting in my opinion and I will not be as nice a @Bobby when you break the guidelines in the future.

 

[SaaSManKS]

You certainly did name call everyone here that disagrees with you as a fan boy which is dismissive to both the adults here and the females here and is a put down to the open discussion that we encourage on the forum. Further more, your Kool-aide reference implies that anyone that disagrees with is part a mindless cult. Very insulting in my opinion and I will not be as nice a @Bobby when you break the guidelines in the future.

Interesting...I guess that's that.

 

[borski]

The Saudis can afford to lose a few billion. But I doubt that the staff running the investment fund think they there's no consequences for them if they blow billions on bad investments.

Risky investments aren’t necessarily bad investments, because sometimes they succeed. That’s literally how venture capital works. Neither you nor I have any idea what the PIF’s risk tolerance is, but Andreesen, which is not as big, has plowed *plenty* of money into risky ventures that ultimately failed. More importantly, though, they’ve plowed plenty of money into risky ventures that ultimately *succeeded*, and those outsized returns far outweigh the much more frequent failures.

The PIF is not a VC, but it’s also not your average family office. You should not assume that their values and/or reasons for investing or not investing align with yours or mine, in whole or in part. That would be foolish.

 

[scal_air]

Eh...SaaSManKS is just doing a little trolling. Pretty mild in my opinion and started off amusing. But after 50 posts, it seems to have run its course. Seriously, the PIF fund investment in Lucid seems a long term bet and like everyone has pointed out, the amount is couch change to them - 8 billion. They are very shrewd - they gave Kushner 2 billion to "invest" but notice nothing for Don Jr or Eric. I don't believe they will break with Lucid as long as the company continues to display superior technology and products.

 

[borski]

I mean, the guy who started Sirius got on and said he was disappointed in the performance of the radio integration, and people are constantly saying "just pull over and reset your car!"

You literally just made that up. That’s not a wise idea where records exist.

https://lucidowners.com/threads/sat...-not-work-15-20-of-the-time.12784/post-302847

@Grandpa has had 3 posts, total. And btw, thanks to @Grandpa for building an awesome service. Nobody has ever disagreed that satellite is not superior to cellular.

But you’ll note none of those posts got responded to with “pull over and reset your car.”

Please don’t make things up. It’s not polite.

 

[Lucidicrous]

The US auto industry contributes between $1.2 and $1.5 trillion to the US economy each year, representing about 4.8% of U.S. GDP. With Lucid, Saudi Arabia is on its way to diversify its economy away from oil dependency. How many billions do you think Lucid is worth to them?

American Geo-political Institute (AGSI) reports an estimated $490 billion of Saudi investment in the US. This includes about $350 billion in identified US securities as of Q3 2024.

Note:

1. Saudi Arabia's official goal is for electric vehicles (EVs) to account for 30% of all vehicle sales in the kingdom by 2030, in line with Saudi Vision 2030. Approximately 826,580 to 837,100 new light vehicles were purchased in Saudi Arabia in 2024.
2. Saudi Arabia has a significant but currently largely untapped amount of rare earth elements, with its total estimated mineral reserves valued at around $2.5 trillion.

 

[TahoeMichael]

Risky investments aren’t necessarily bad investments, because sometimes they succeed. That’s literally how venture capital works. Neither you nor I have any idea what the PIF’s risk tolerance is, but Andreesen, which is not as big, has plowed *plenty* of money into risky ventures that ultimately failed. More importantly, though, they’ve plowed plenty of money into risky ventures that ultimately *succeeded*, and those outsized returns far outweigh the much more frequent failures.

The PIF is not a VC, but it’s also not your average family office. You should not assume that their values and/or reasons for investing or not investing align with yours or mine, in whole or in part. That would be foolish.

I get all that. I've raised funding from the VC community for startups ranging from seed out to mezzanine rounds. I think it's clear that the Saudis have a tolerance for risk. But risk tolerance is not at all the same as not caring if your multi-billion dollar investment fails, as @SaaSManKS is positing.

 

[TahoeMichael]

omg, they didn't buy in at market rates either, they get convertible notes, and restructured share classes that benefit them, like buying in at the SPAC, and referencing the comment from @HC_79 it's not billions, to them, it's like $10. win win

I'm not willing to go scrape the internet for the reports of the Saudi's investments to try and total up the overall amount of money they've put in. But I think it's clear that their investment is far from what anyone would consider trivial. I understand quite well the kinds of structure that gets layered into many deals, and I would be unsurprised to discover that the Saudis are first in line in the event the company dissolves. None of that changes my opinion that buying the assets on the cheap in the event of a bankruptcy is unlikely to be considered a win. There are companies that happily sweep in and buy distressed companies and bankrupt companies, and make a good living doing that. But they're leveraging the outcome of other people's investments in failed companies, and are not getting a good return on their own investments in a company that then fails.

 

[merveille07]

That's a requirement for an initial listing on the NASDAQ. For probation to kick in you need to have your share price at closing be less than $1 for 30 consecutive days.

This was hard. Love it when pedantic get dropped. Please don't ban my post

 

[illopp00]

Risky investments aren’t necessarily bad investments, because sometimes they succeed. That’s literally how venture capital works. Neither you nor I have any idea what the PIF’s risk tolerance is, but Andreesen, which is not as big, has plowed *plenty* of money into risky ventures that ultimately failed. More importantly, though, they’ve plowed plenty of money into risky ventures that ultimately *succeeded*, and those outsized returns far outweigh the much more frequent failures.

The PIF is not a VC, but it’s also not your average family office. You should not assume that their values and/or reasons for investing or not investing align with yours or mine, in whole or in part. That would be foolish.

LCID is around a 1% position in the PIF's overall Portfolio, they literally are investing with money they can afford to lose.