Lucid Q1 Financials and Forward Looking

I listened to the entirety of the earnings call and following Q&A.
My bias is if they miss by $100M each and every qtr is largely irrelevant because the it is will the midsize be on schedule, what is its specs including price, full stop.
What happened on the call was bad, but mostly explainable, mostly.
The inventory amount needed some follow up because that number is huge.
They explained the bad qtr by the stop sale, but when asked how many sales will be pulled into the next qtr because of this solved issue, Marc didn’t know - wow!!
Pulling guidance and will re-issue at the end of Q2 when the new CEO finishes his assessment. There isn’t a great way to handle this, but pulling guidance is the worst way.
Ramp up of midsize is on track. Reveal, testing schedule, ordering and production start all subject to change until Q2 guidance. Stating that the only thing that matters is a smooth ramp.
Won’t need additional financing until 2H27. Weak questions about this.
Uber and robotaxi commercialization before year end still.
Saudi facility buildout for midsize is on schedule.

Right now Lucid’s efficiency enables having it all, range, space, acceleration, fast charging. But, as battery tech improves to semi-solid state and beyond these criteria are achievable by other manufacturers and the margin able cost difference relying on the battery tech instead of Lucid’s class leading engineering becomes far less relevant, but midsize should be ramped and maybe a year or perhaps two for the competition to get tight. My guess, especially since it seems donut battery has its own issues, maybe.
 
COO implements, CEO directs. Duh
I hate to say it but Marc was probably a better interim CEO than he was a COO. When you look at all of the internal systems that are messed up along with the lack of communication/coordination between production, sales and service and it paints a pretty poor picture of the COO.
 
I hate to say it but Marc was probably a better interim CEO than he was a COO. When you look at all of the internal systems that are messed up along with the lack of communication/coordination between production, sales and service and it paints a pretty poor picture of the COO.
Maybe he’s next on the chopping block then because you are right.
 
If the inventory is so high would it not make sense to have more discounts etc for new customers?!I know that drops the margin but maybe give some incentives?
For example our store in Düsseldorf (Germany) stated that lucid has sold 112 gravity in Q1 when I visited and asked two weeks ago the sales rep. However in Germany the sales numbers have to be announced which has registered. And lucid in total has only 35 vehicles registered for the whole brand in q1 according to official numbers... So iam not sure if she is over selling the car or maybe the missing 80 cars are ordered but not delivered yet!?
 
Advertising, advertising, advertising. Whether you guys believe it or not, the overwhelming majority of people still have never heard of Lucid. How do you drive sales up significantly without product awareness. IMO, this ain’t rocket science. Advertising on Facebook or YouTube isn’t going to cut it.
 
They have 1.4 billion in inventory, company worth 2 billion? Stock is a steal!
Why do they have such a big inventory? I thought people were waiting for them to make 200K cars, no? At least, that's what you were saying few days ago.
 
Mass marketing advertising for a niche product is a massive waste of funds.
 
Do we know why it took so long to hire a new CEO? Did others turn it down?

Nothing I'm hearing makes me think LCID is a better than 50-50 chance of surviving thorugh the end of 2027.
 
I did not attend Lucid's call today and I have not read transcripts of the today's call. I am asking a clarification question.

In February, Lucid' s communique was, the seat-buckle manufacturer's unauthorized change of their process resulted in a stall in Gravity manufacturing and delivery. Furthermore, Lucid had to recall/rework many Gravity vehicles, hence, Q1'26 delivery was below expectations. At that time, Lucid stated they were NOT changing yearly Gravity shipment targets, implying Gravity demands remain strong as forecasted.

Is the above statement STILL SUBSTANTIALLY QUANTITATIVELY TRUE in light of today's numbers and forward-looking shipments? If not, what changed? The economy? The forecast? Competition? The February statements were simply wrong?
Nothing changed from Lucid earning call regarding to this, but it's strange now people talking about excessive inventory, which is Gravity that was supposed to be delivered but pending seat. Its just deferred revenue from what I can see.
 
If the inventory is so high would it not make sense to have more discounts etc for new customers?!I know that drops the margin but maybe give some incentives?
For example our store in Düsseldorf (Germany) stated that lucid has sold 112 gravity in Q1 when I visited and asked two weeks ago the sales rep. However in Germany the sales numbers have to be announced which has registered. And lucid in total has only 35 vehicles registered for the whole brand in q1 according to official numbers... So iam not sure if she is over selling the car or maybe the missing 80 cars are ordered but not delivered yet!?
But those "extra car" were mostly sold pending new 2nd roll seats, unless buyer cancelled during that 29 days pause. I waited for 6 months for my Air GT to be delivered to Dubai.
 
Nothing changed from Lucid earning call regarding to this, but it's strange now people talking about excessive inventory, which is Gravity that was supposed to be delivered but pending seat. Its just deferred revenue from what I can see.
I dondt see any mention any where that this are pending sales. Fact, there is less demand for Gravity which seems strange. May be the Lucid economics is making things difficult to buyers on survivability. A 50cent stock value is no joke. There are polymarket betting on Lucid bankruptcy this and that. Its a 50 50 now which is also playing part in less number of sales.
 
Why do they have such a big inventory? I thought people were waiting for them to make 200K cars, no? At least, that's what you were saying few days ago
Do we know why it took so long to hire a new CEO? Did others turn it down?

Nothing I'm hearing makes me think LCID is a better than 50-50 chance of surviving thorugh the end of 2027.

Why do they have such a big inventory? I thought people were waiting for them to make 200K cars, no? At least, that's what you were saying few days ago.
Who said 200k cars?

CEO hiring takes 1-2 years. Unless you have someone ready in the pipeline.

Rawlinson was unexpectedly let go
 
I dondt see any mention any where that this are pending sales. Fact, there is less demand for Gravity which seems strange. May be the Lucid economics is making things difficult to buyers on survivability. A 50cent stock value is no joke. There are polymarket betting on Lucid bankruptcy this and that. It’s a 50 50 now which is also playing part in less number of sales.
Gravity demand is much higher than the Air. If you believe predictive gambling sites for financial and life advice…….
 
CEO hiring takes 1-2 years. Unless you have someone ready in the pipeline.
The norm is more like 6-12 months.

Polymarket is no different that investment advice--it is the aggregate of opinions. Some opinions are more well founded than others, but in either case you are trying to predict the future.
 
I listened to the entirety of the earnings call and following Q&A.
My bias is if they miss by $100M each and every qtr is largely irrelevant because the it is will the midsize be on schedule, what is its specs including price, full stop.
What happened on the call was bad, but mostly explainable, mostly.
The inventory amount needed some follow up because that number is huge.
They explained the bad qtr by the stop sale, but when asked how many sales will be pulled into the next qtr because of this solved issue, Marc didn’t know - wow!!
Pulling guidance and will re-issue at the end of Q2 when the new CEO finishes his assessment. There isn’t a great way to handle this, but pulling guidance is the worst way.
Ramp up of midsize is on track. Reveal, testing schedule, ordering and production start all subject to change until Q2 guidance. Stating that the only thing that matters is a smooth ramp.
Won’t need additional financing until 2H27. Weak questions about this.
Uber and robotaxi commercialization before year end still.
Saudi facility buildout for midsize is on schedule.

Right now Lucid’s efficiency enables having it all, range, space, acceleration, fast charging. But, as battery tech improves to semi-solid state and beyond these criteria are achievable by other manufacturers and the margin able cost difference relying on the battery tech instead of Lucid’s class leading engineering becomes far less relevant, but midsize should be ramped and maybe a year or perhaps two for the competition to get tight. My guess, especially since it seems donut battery has its own issues, maybe.
I think they need to create excitement about Cosmos and Earth at the same time. Reveal should show both and both should take pre-orders immediately after reveal. And that reveal should be as soon as possible. Lucid needs more models,and more positive press/buzz.

From the summaries I’m reading about the earning call - I am not seeing anything about expanding their service center presence or bandwidth. This seems like it is really hammering existing customer loyalty. It’s a pretty bad situation everywhere it seems. 2-3 week minimum wait AFTER you drop off the car, even for routine repairs. And of course you’re waiting a few weeks just to get the car in. Then the loaner and rental costs, etc. the layoffs are taking their toll there.
 
Yeah one thing I will say is the simple reveal of affordable models will generate a lot of free marketing for Lucid that will probably drive additional sales for Air/Gravity, which they desperately need to improve margins.
 
I did see a Lucid on a TV show yesterday. I think they need to ramp up their advertising especially after the Cosmos reveal. I still meet people who ask me what kind of car that is even here in the Bay Area where they are everywhere.
 
Polymarket are a bunch of gamblers that moved from crypto.
The norm is more like 6-12 months.

Polymarket is no different that investment advice--it is the aggregate of opinions. Some opinions are more well founded than others, but in either case you are trying to predict the future.
 
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