LUCID Gravity Lease vs Finance

[Elfin]

did a little rough Excel math based on the numbers provided by the Lucid calculator and nothing else.

The main theme was this: Take a base GT, 36 months, 10,000 miles and then go 0 down with NYC taxes (8.8865% roughly), then do the same thing with the maximum allowable money down (rounded down to nearest thousand), and then repeat with my config (everything but: base wheels, middle level self driving) and then repeat with Gravity Dream.

term	down	monthly	msrp	out of pocket	Total paid	1k deposit	36 months total
36	$0	$1,349	$94,900	$5,221	$53,785	$54,785	$1,521.81
36	$30,000	$416	$94,900	$33,971		$48,947	$49,947	$1,387.42
36	$0	$1,684	$115,750	$6,626	$67,250	$68,250	$1,895.83
36	$38,000	$502	$115,750	$43,043		$61,115	$62,115	$1,725.42
36	$0	$2,267	$139,900	$9,072	$90,684	$91,684	$2,546.78
36	$55,000	$557	$139,900	$61,780		$81,832	$82,832	$2,300.89

When I run your DE numbers (assuming I calculated net capital cost correctly) I get 8% APR and 56% residual (vs. 62% for GT).
Here are the formulas:
residual = (term*(monthly_payment_a*net_cap_cost_b - monthly_payment_b*net_cap_cost_a))/(2*net_cap_cost_a - 2*net_cap_cost_b - monthly_payment_a*term + monthly_payment_b*term)
money_factor = (net_cap_cost_b - net_cap_cost_a + monthly_payment_a*term - monthly_payment_b*term)/(net_cap_cost_a*term - net_cap_cost_b*term)
apr = money_factor*2400

 

[037]

When I run your DE numbers (assuming I calculated net capital cost correctly) I get 8% APR and 56% residual (vs. 62% for GT).
Here are the formulas:
residual = (term*(monthly_payment_a*net_cap_cost_b - monthly_payment_b*net_cap_cost_a))/(2*net_cap_cost_a - 2*net_cap_cost_b - monthly_payment_a*term + monthly_payment_b*term)
money_factor = (net_cap_cost_b - net_cap_cost_a + monthly_payment_a*term - monthly_payment_b*term)/(net_cap_cost_a*term - net_cap_cost_b*term)
apr = money_factor*2400

too many assumptions for me...so I go with what I have, and currently that's the Lucid calculator. Residual will obviously be the same regardless which route you take, but paying ahead seems to provide the greatest savings as we're cutting out whatever crazy interest they are adding.

term	down	monthly	msrp	out of pocket	Total paid	1k deposit	36 months total	% of MSRP after 36m
36	$0	$1,349	$94,900	$5,221	$53,785	$54,785	$1,521.81	57.729%
36	$30,000	$416	$94,900	$33,971	$48,947	$49,947	$1,387.42	52.631%
36	$0	$1,684	$115,750	$6,626	$67,250	$68,250	$1,895.83	58.963%
36	$38,000	$502	$115,750	$43,043	$61,115	$62,115	$1,725.42	53.663%
36	$0	$1,740	$119,250	$6,862	$69,502	$70,502	$1,958.39	59.121%
36	$40,000	$496	$119,250	$45,196	$63,052	$64,052	$1,779.22	53.712%
36	$0	$2,267	$139,900	$9,072	$90,684	$91,684	$2,546.78	65.535%
36	$55,000	$557	$139,900	$61,780	$81,832	$82,832	$2,300.89	59.208%

 

[Elfin]

too many assumptions for me...so I go with what I have, and currently that's the Lucid calculator. Residual will obviously be the same regardless which route you take, but paying ahead seems to provide the greatest savings as we're cutting out whatever crazy interest they are adding.

term	down	monthly	msrp	out of pocket	Total paid	1k deposit	36 months total	% of MSRP after 36m
36	$0	$1,349	$94,900	$5,221	$53,785	$54,785	$1,521.81	57.729%
36	$30,000	$416	$94,900	$33,971	$48,947	$49,947	$1,387.42	52.631%
36	$0	$1,684	$115,750	$6,626	$67,250	$68,250	$1,895.83	58.963%
36	$38,000	$502	$115,750	$43,043	$61,115	$62,115	$1,725.42	53.663%
36	$0	$1,740	$119,250	$6,862	$69,502	$70,502	$1,958.39	59.121%
36	$40,000	$496	$119,250	$45,196	$63,052	$64,052	$1,779.22	53.712%
36	$0	$2,267	$139,900	$9,072	$90,684	$91,684	$2,546.78	65.535%
36	$55,000	$557	$139,900	$61,780	$81,832	$82,832	$2,300.89	59.208%

The assumption I'm making is that they're using the standard lease formula and the same money factor and residual no matter how much you put down (which appears to be true for all their other leases.)
Anyway, the conclusion is the same, the interest rate is high and the DE is an even worse deal than the GT. Once demand at this rate I expect they'll lower the interest rate.

 

[illopp00]

Counterpoint. I can't get a Macan 4S for less than 1631 for equivalent lease 24 mo, 7.5K down and roughly equal MSRP. And then I lose range, power, 7 seats, room, power outlets, etc etc etc...

 

[Elfin]

Counterpoint. I can't get a Macan 4S for less than 1631 for equivalent lease 24 mo, 7.5K down and roughly equal MSRP. And then I lose range, power, 7 seats, room, power outlets, etc etc etc...

Counter-counterpoint. Rivian R1S dual motor with Max pack and Performance upgrade ($100,400 MSRP) is $1112/mo, $6k down.
Too bad I want the Gravity.

 

[037]

out of pocket includes 1st month so i naturally counted that twice...correcting my earlier post. don't judge. NYC taxes included (8.8875)

term	down	monthly	msrp	out of pocket	Total paid	1k deposit	36 months total	% of MSRP after 36m
35	$0	$1,349	$94,900	$5,221	$52,436	$53,436	$1,484.33	56.308%
35	$30,000	$416	$94,900	$33,971	$48,531	$49,531	$1,375.86	52.193%
35	$0	$1,684	$115,750	$6,626	$65,566	$66,566	$1,849.06	57.508%
35	$38,000	$502	$115,750	$43,043	$60,613	$61,613	$1,711.47	53.229%
47	$0	$1,642	$115,750	$8,200	$85,374	$86,374	$1,799.46	74.621%
47	$51,400	$399	$115,750	$57,626	$76,379	$77,379	$1,612.06	66.850%
35	$0	$1,740	$119,250	$6,862	$67,762	$68,762	$1,910.06	57.662%
35	$40,000	$496	$119,250	$45,196	$62,556	$63,556	$1,765.44	53.296%
35	$0	$2,267	$139,900	$9,072	$88,417	$89,417	$2,483.81	63.915%
35	$55,000	$557	$139,900	$61,780	$81,275	$82,275	$2,285.42	58.810%

and here I have the term lengths without the taxes

term	down	monthly	msrp	out of pocket	Total paid	% of total msrp
18	0	$2,282	$115,750	$2,282	$41,076	35.487%
18	25529	$752	$115,750	$25,281	$38,817	33.535%
24	0	$2,007	$115,750	$2,007	$50,175	43.348%
24	31082	$596	$115,750	$30,678	$44,982	38.861%
36	0	$1,684	$115,750	$1,684	$62,308	53.830%
36	38701	$481	$115,750	$38,182	$55,498	47.946%
48	0	$1,642	$115,750	$1,642	$80,458	69.510%
48	51404	$399	$115,750	$50,803	$69,955	60.436%

 

[msaunders9430]

Counter-counterpoint. Rivian R1S dual motor with Max pack and Performance upgrade ($100,400 MSRP) is $1112/mo, $6k down.
Too bad I want the Gravity.

A five-seater Gravity on 21/22s with Mojave Purluxe Premium($100,550 MSRP) is $1253/mo, $6k down. R1S starts at $84k, Gravity starts at $95k.

A basic Gravity is going to be $1162/mo, $6k down.
Adding an additional $11k down to account for the differnce in starting price, Gravity is $820/mo.

The starting price difference between the two isn't anything new.
Trying to get a Gravity with the same lease payments as an R1S requires more money down.

When I look at the total of lease payments over 36 months for the Gravity, as a percentage of the final price after the tax credit and compare it to competitors that really don't even interest me, with the exception of the R1S, the Gravity percentage is right there with the competitors.

 

[PetevB]

Rule of thumb is no money down on the lease. If something happens, ie car gets stolen or totaled, you’re simply out that cash. There are exceptions (ie trying to qualify for a home loan) but in general comparisons should be made with no money down, then compare payments to MSRP. Putting a bunch of money down is both generally not smart but it also warps the comparison.

 

[PetevB]

When I look at the total of lease payments over 36 months for the Gravity, as a percentage of the final price after the tax credit and compare it to competitors that really don't even interest me, with the exception of the R1S, the Gravity percentage is right there with the competitors.

View attachment 28279

You’re comparing cars with no dealer discounts (Lucid, Rivian) with those that will have heavy discounts and incentives as though they are apples to apples? Does that make sense? You can get a Mercedes EQS 450 SUV for 35 x $999 payment + 5k drive off (which might include some fees not shown above) for a 36 x 7.5k lease right now. Total payments as a percentage of MSRP is about 33%, roughly half of the 62% you’re showing above. Ok it’s less miles, but unless i’m missing something this comparison is very misleading.

 

[Elfin]

Rule of thumb is no money down on the lease. If something happens, ie car gets stolen or totaled, you’re simply out that cash. There are exceptions (ie trying to qualify for a home loan) but in general comparisons should be made with no money down, then compare payments to MSRP. Putting a bunch of money down is both generally not smart but it also warps the comparison.

8% interest is a lot though. You've got to beat that post tax. Good luck!
Not sure what probability of totaling the car is.

 

[dhruv]

I found out that Residual is 56% and money factor is 8+% for Gravity DE

Should have been more specific, this came from my calculations but more importantly got these numbers independently from my Sales Advisor at LUCID

This is for standard 3 year lease, 10k miles

 

[PetevB]

8% interest is a lot though. You've got to beat that post tax. Good luck!
Not sure what probability of totaling the car is.

General rule of thumb is don’t lease when the interest rate is 8% and your credit union will give you a car loan at 4%.

The production lines are designed for quite a high volume- 90k cars per year out of Arizona. As they ramp up they’ll be in a situation where they need to run the line to keep production costs down. Once the GT volume is satisfied they’ll open the Touring order book, keeping the line at capacity. Once that volume has been satisfied they’ll begin to improve the deals to maintain demand. I’m currently expecting that’ll be roughly a year from now, and I’m planning for an alternative until that time.

 

[Elfin]

A five-seater Gravity on 21/22s with Mojave Purluxe Premium($100,550 MSRP) is $1253/mo, $6k down. R1S starts at $84k, Gravity starts at $95k.

A basic Gravity is going to be $1162/mo, $6k down.
Adding an additional $11k down to account for the differnce in starting price, Gravity is $820/mo.

The starting price difference between the two isn't anything new.
Trying to get a Gravity with the same lease payments as an R1S requires more money down.

When I look at the total of lease payments over 36 months for the Gravity, as a percentage of the final price after the tax credit and compare it to competitors that really don't even interest me, with the exception of the R1S, the Gravity percentage is right there with the competitors.

View attachment 28279

Hmm.. not as different as I thought.
EQS SUV is much cheaper here in San Diego though:

 

[HC_79]

Not sure what probability of totaling the car is.

Very easy considering the cost to repair just a minor fender bender.

 

[Elfin]

General rule of thumb is don’t lease when the interest rate is 8% and your credit union will give you a car loan at 4%.

At 8% I'd just pay cash. The reason I want to lease is in case Lucid goes out of business. Other advantage of leasing over buying in California is you only pay sales tax on the part of the car you use.

 

[HC_79]

At 8% I'd just pay cash. The reason I want to lease is in case Lucid goes out of business. Other advantage of leasing over buying in California is you only pay sales tax on the part of the car you use.

Lucid isn’t going out of business. Pay cash and be prepared to eat significant depreciation. Just look at the Air to see how quickly they depreciate.

Even Lucid financing at 6% with $28K (I think that’s what they’re asking) down would have you underwater on the loan within 12 to 18 months.

 

[msaunders9430]

You’re comparing cars with no dealer discounts (Lucid, Rivian) with those that will have heavy discounts and incentives as though they are apples to apples? Does that make sense? You can get a Mercedes EQS 450 SUV for 35 x $999 payment + 5k drive off (which might include some fees not shown above) for a 36 x 7.5k lease right now. Total payments as a percentage of MSRP is about 33%, roughly half of the 62% you’re showing above. Ok it’s less miles, but unless i’m missing something this comparison is very misleading.

I'm comparing the cars I'm looking at buying this year as an alternative to the Gravity. The existence of discounts and incentives is beyond my control. Waiting until the cars of interest are all offered with equal discounts and incentives is a long wait. Not doing that; life is too short. So, for me, those are the apples I'm working with. No desire to wait for your perceived orange becomes an apple.

The numbers you quote for that EQS don't exist in my area or the options on that model possibly don't match my configured model. If I were looking for just cheaper lease payments, with no regard for my desired options, I'm pretty sure I could find that. I know what I want and that is the basis for the numbers I provided. That's my reality. Someone else's could obviously be different. That's not misleading.

 

[msaunders9430]

Hmm.. not as different as I thought.
EQS SUV is much cheaper here in San Diego though:
View attachment 28283

If you like it, consider it.
Looks too much like a George Jetson car to me and the dashboard is overloaded.
That's just me.
If you like the look, go for it.

 

[kopik]

For those who can write it off as a business expense, lease makes a lot of sense. That made last end of year lease incentives for Air even more attractive. Still, the Gravity lease numbers are definitely on the higher side...

 

[msaunders9430]

8% interest is a lot though. You've got to beat that post tax. Good luck!
Not sure what probability of totaling the car is.

Lucid offers gap insurance to cover the possibility of the car being totaled.

Post in thread 'Lucid Air Pure Lease - GAP Insurance'

Jul 9, 2024

This contract language states that GAP is provided ("you will have no further liability") for a total vehicle loss under the provisions that you cooperate with the lease company and auto insurance company, are current with your lease payments, cover your regular auto insurance deductible (if any), and your auto insurance pays out the lease company the value of the vehicle at the time of loss. If not, you will owe early termination fees. In any event, you may have to continue to pay your monthly lease until the Loss is completely settled by the parties, but you'll be credited those lease...

• GJC

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